{"id":274231,"date":"2026-04-18T13:59:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T13:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/274231\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T13:59:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T13:59:24","slug":"republicans-hilton-bianco-lead-california-governors-race-following-swalwells-exit-becerra-sees-surge-in-support-the-mercury-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/274231\/","title":{"rendered":"Republicans Hilton, Bianco lead California governor\u2019s race following Swalwell\u2019s exit, Becerra sees surge in support \u2013 The Mercury News"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the first poll since Eric Swalwell\u2019s scandal-plagued exit from the California governor\u2019s race<\/a>, two Republicans \u2014 former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco \u2014 lead the pack, while former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra is seeing a newfound surge in support, signaling a potential shake up in the crowded contest.<\/p>\n

The survey, which was conducted April 14 and 15 by Emerson College Polling<\/a>, decides the field of candidates appearing at next week\u2019s Inside California Politics governor\u2019s debate. The show\u2019s parent company, Nexstar Media Group, has said it will use a 5% support threshold as the cutoff, meaning that the debate stage is likely to consist of Hilton (16.6%), Bianco (14.4%), billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer (14.1%), Becerra (10.4%), former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter (10.3%), and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (5.4%).<\/p>\n

Swalwell, who led Emerson\u2019s last poll in March, withdrew from the race on Sunday following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has sharply denied. He resigned from his East Bay seat on Tuesday as a fifth woman came forward, alleging the embattled politician drugged and raped her in 2018.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThis is one potential answer to where will Eric Swalwell\u2019s voters go<\/a>,\u201d Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said of the poll.<\/p>\n

With seven other Democrats in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, many of the gubernatorial hopefuls are seeing renewed interest in their campaigns as they look to pick up Swalwell\u2019s base, which polls have shown was made up of older, white, Bay Area liberals.<\/p>\n

Thursday\u2019s poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters and\u00a0had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.<\/p>\n

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release about the poll, that \u201cDemocrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote \u2014 even following President Donald Trump\u2019s endorsement of the former Fox News host \u2014 with 45% supporting Hilton and 40% supporting Bianco. 23% of voters still remain undecided just several weeks from when ballots are expected to arrive in mailboxes.<\/p>\n

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2.5%), former state Controller Betty Yee (1.4%) and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (1%) rounded out the bottom of the poll.<\/p>\n

\"ThisBecerra, who served as California\u2019s attorney general from 2017 to 2021, saw the most dramatic change in the recent Emerson poll. His support in the last five polls had dropped from 5% to 3%, but amid Swalwell\u2019s exit, he said in an April 14 social media post that his campaign had raised nearly $400,000 in the prior days, with the average donation size $42.<\/p>\n

Kousser said that Becerra\u2019s struggle to capture voters\u2019 attention has been one of the \u201cgreat mysteries of this race,\u201d since he has a resume boasting decades of political experience having served in the House of Representatives, the California State Assembly and President Joe Biden\u2019s cabinet. The poll, along with a bump on social media support that Becerra has been seeing, could be a \u201csign that he is a third potential candidate in the Democratic room,\u201d the political science professor added.<\/p>\n

Michael Bustamante, the senior advisor to Becerra\u2019s campaign, said in a news release that \u201cBecerra\u2019s momentum is clear: strong increases in the polls, significant fundraising for small and medium-sized donors and a massive increase in social media interaction.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Kousser cautions that the race is still \u201cvery fluid.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMany Californians first realized there was a governor\u2019s race when Eric Swalwell dropped out of it, so we are likely to see a lot of movement as Californians really for the first time focus their attention fully on this race,\u201d he said. \u201cWe may see a lot of movement around Democrats because they are almost all in the same ideological space.\u201d<\/p>\n

Because of California\u2019s filing deadline, Swalwell\u2019s name will still remain on the ballot, and he is likely to still pick up some votes, political experts say. Camille Mumford, a spokesperson for Emerson College Polling, said they didn\u2019t include his name on the most recent poll since it was being used a qualifier for the April 22 debate, however, the nonpartisan organization will include him in their final poll next month.<\/p>\n

The primary for the California governor\u2019s race will be held on June 2, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, advancing to the November runoff.<\/p>\n

Swalwell\u2019s exit lessens the likelihood of the race\u2019s top two Republicans shutting out the more divided Democrats in deep blue California<\/a> where a GOP candidate hasn\u2019t been elected governor \u2014 or for any other statewide office \u2014 since Arnold Schwarzenegger 20 years ago. That concern has raised pressure on the state\u2019s leading Democrats including Newsom to endorse and help consolidate support around a Democratic candidate.<\/a><\/p>\n

Thursday\u2019s poll suggests a Republican top-two finish remains a possibility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the first poll since Eric Swalwell\u2019s scandal-plagued exit from the California governor\u2019s race, two Republicans \u2014 former…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267302,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[37945,184,7,47501,9,8,400,390,392,1751,332,393,2333,204,1533,181,100,395,182,13,385,1748,396,13722,397,198,3234,94685,200,398,399],"class_list":{"0":"post-274231","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-california","8":"tag-2026-election","9":"tag-bay-area","10":"tag-california","11":"tag-california-governor-election","12":"tag-california-headlines","13":"tag-california-news","14":"tag-california-politics","15":"tag-central-contra-costa","16":"tag-contra-costa-county","17":"tag-democrats","18":"tag-east-bay","19":"tag-east-contra-costa","20":"tag-editors-picks","21":"tag-election","22":"tag-keywee","23":"tag-latest-headlines","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-peninsula","26":"tag-pm-report","27":"tag-politics","28":"tag-regional","29":"tag-republicans","30":"tag-san-francisco-county","31":"tag-san-joaquin-county","32":"tag-san-mateo-county","33":"tag-santa-clara-county","34":"tag-santa-cruz-county","35":"tag-social-alert","36":"tag-south-bay","37":"tag-tri-valley","38":"tag-west-contra-costa"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=274231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/274231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=274231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=274231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=274231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}