With the Iran war continuing to strangle Middle East oil supplies, public transit agencies looking to add passengers might expect high gas prices to incentivize people to ride the rails more than ever.<\/p>\n
Historically, high gas prices do lead to spikes in public transportation use. But the pandemic hit mass transit hard, particularly in California, and the recovery has been slow as a number of people continue to work from home.<\/p>\n
Gas prices spiked after the Ukraine war began<\/a> in 2022 but did not spur major ridership increases in local public transportation, and the question is whether the reaction to high fuel prices from the Iran war will be different.<\/p>\n The number of residents who rode their local rail lines in two of California\u2019s major metropolitan cities jumped significantly last month. Although officials believe gas prices may be one factor behind the increase, experts say it\u2019s not yet clear if this is the beginning of a larger trend.<\/p>\n California\u2019s gas prices have risen 30% since the start of the year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration<\/a>. In the Los Angeles-Long Beach area, the average price for regular gas jumped from $4.67 in February to $5.93 in March; the average in San Francisco also increased \u2014 from $4.83 in February to $5.99, the American Automobile Assn<\/a>. reported.<\/p>\n At the same time, ridership in each region jumped by about 1 million passengers.<\/p>\n A Times analysis found that the number of Los Angeles Metro riders peaked in March at 6.3 million, an increase from 5.8 million in March of 2025 and 5.7 million during the same month the year before. <\/p>\n About 5.4 million riders hopped on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit rail system in March, an increase from 4.5 million in the same month in 2025 and 4.1 million in 2024. <\/p>\n The regions\u2019 bus systems have shown small increases in ridership or held steady: S.F.\u2019s Muni grew from an estimated 13 million passengers to nearly 15 million from March 2024 to March 2026. Los Angeles\u2019 Metro has averaged about 20 million riders during the same time period.<\/p>\n For the first two months of the year, Metro\u2019s rail ridership increases were largely driven by weekend riders rather than daily commuters.<\/p>\n \u201cThese riders generally choose Metro for leisure trips to avoid traffic congestion and the high cost and inconvenience of parking,\u201d said Maya Pogoda, spokesperson for Metro. <\/p>\n But March was starkly different. <\/p>\n \u201cWe saw an 8.6% increase in weekday ridership compared to March 2024, suggesting that more people may be returning to rail for regular, work-related travel \u2014 not just occasional trips,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n As it happens, both L.A. and the Bay Area had an exceptionally busy March in terms of local and nationwide events. There was opening day for the Major League Baseball teams in both regions, as well as dozens of No Kings protests \u2014 and each had hyper-local events that were near several rail stations. <\/p>\n BART riders \u2014 including locals and out-of-towners \u2014 rode the rail to attend the five-day Game Developers Conference<\/a>: Festival of Gaming, which started March 1, as well as the four-day cybersecurity RSAC 2026 Conference, which began March 23, said Alicia Trost, BART\u2019s chief communications officer.<\/p>\n In Southern California, the Dodgers and Angels had a three-game spring training series <\/a>near the end of the month, and each team\u2019s stadium is just a short walk from a train station. On March 15, Hollywood hosted the Oscars <\/a>\u2014 not far from a stop off the B Line.<\/p>\n Generally, however, getting people out of their cars, even in times of high gas prices, is hard, said Michael Manville, professor of urban planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. <\/p>\n \u201cPeople are kind of locked into their cars,\u201d Manville said. \u201cEven when they do start to feel the pinch, they don\u2019t necessarily change their travel behavior, they cut back on other things.\u201d<\/p>\n A change in transportation habits would start with lower-income individuals and families, said Ethan N. Elkind, director of the Climate Program at UC Berkeley\u2019s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment. <\/p>\n The last time a war led to a spike in gas prices that was followed by an upswing in the number of people taking public transportation was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 \u2014 yet it\u2019s difficult to prove a direct correlation, Elkind said. <\/p>\n For one thing, the hike in fuel prices didn\u2019t last very long, he said. <\/p>\n \u201cIt didn\u2019t necessarily lead to any long-term changes,\u201d Elkind said. <\/p>\n