San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan spent today touting a post that claimed a KRON4 poll suddenly put him in first place in the crowded California governor’s race, with 46 percent support after last night’s debate. Shared from his official account, the message cast the televised showdown as a breakout moment for his candidacy. If those numbers were accurate, the primary landscape would be dramatically different, but the scientific surveys available tell a very different story.<\/p>\n
What Mahan Shared<\/p>\n
The post Mahan boosted reproduces a set of numbers attributed to KRON4 that list Mahan at 46 percent, Steve Hilton at 15 percent, Tom Steyer at 12 percent, Xavier Becerra at 11 percent, Katie Porter at 8 percent and Chad Bianco at 6 percent. The tweet does not include any polling methodology or sample-size details, and it was posted from the mayor’s official account. According to First To Hear It<\/a>, the figures were presented as coming after the statewide debate broadcast.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n POLL ALERT: A KRON4 poll of the #CAGOV<\/a> race finds San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan ROCKETING into the lead after last night’s debate.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udfe6Matt Mahan: 46%
How the Numbers Compare to Scientific Polls<\/p>\n The KRON4 figures clash with a scientific Emerson College\/Nexstar survey taken April 14 to 15 that put Mahan at roughly 5 percent, while Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco led the field and about 23 percent of likely primary voters remained undecided. That Emerson\/Nexstar snapshot – widely cited in coverage of the debate lineup – shows Mahan playing a much smaller role in the statewide contest. The poll’s toplines and context were reported by Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n Campaign Polling and Caution<\/p>\n San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight reported that the Mahan campaign circulated an internal survey in mid-April that showed the mayor running higher than public trackers, at roughly 8 percent in that internal memo, and the campaign framed those numbers as evidence of building momentum. Outside consultants, however, warned that campaign polls are often crafted to tell a flattering story: strategist Steve Maviglio told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight<\/a>, “Any internal poll you have to take with a grain of salt \u2014 it\u2019s written by you, designed by you.”<\/p>\n What It Means For The June Primary<\/p>\n Even if Mahan did enjoy a bump among debate viewers, snap or social-media polls about who ‘won’ a debate are often out of step with the broader electorate. California’s top-two primary system, along with the large share of undecided voters in recent scientific polls, means that any real and lasting surge would require persuading a wide swath of likely voters, a tall order in such a crowded field. The Emerson poll’s high undecided figure highlights how fluid the governor’s race remains heading into June, as SFGATE<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udfe5Steve Hilton: 15%
\ud83d\udfe6Tom Steyer: 12%
\ud83d\udfe6Xavier Becerra: 11%
\ud83d\udfe6Katie Porter: 8%
\ud83d\udfe5Chad Bianco: 6%
\u2b1cUndecided: 2% pic.twitter.com\/5BEvvuLYMH<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\u2014 First To Hear It (@firsttohearit) April 23, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n