Pandit found that the 2024 wage hike translated to an average 8% decrease in on-site staffing at California fast-food restaurants \u2013 that could have meant fewer workers on the floor, fewer hours offered or a mix of both. In other words, each dollar that the worker\u2019s wage increases results in a 3% reduction in staffing, Pandit found.<\/p>\n
The findings could have implications for how fast-food restaurant operators adjust their costs to stay in business. The more employers need to spend on wages could lead to more automation, less quality and fewer job opportunities for teenagers and young workers getting their start in the workplace, to name a few examples, Pandit said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou may find a lot more ordering kiosks at Taco Bell or McDonald\u2019s rather than having in-person\u201d staff with whom to place your order, he said.<\/p>\n
![\"Portrait](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/040826_AS_Hitanshu_Pandit_013.jpg\")
04\/08\/26 \u2013 BOSTON, MA. \u2013 Hitanshu Pandit, postdoctoral research fellow at the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern, poses for a portrait on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. Photo by Alyssa Stone\/Northeastern University<\/p>\n
![\"Hitanshu](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/040826_AS_Hitanshu_Pandit_003.jpg\")
04\/08\/26 \u2013 BOSTON, MA. \u2013 Hitanshu Pandit, postdoctoral research fellow at the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern, does research on labor economics, urban policy, and health economics on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. Photo by Alyssa Stone\/Northeastern University
\nHitanshu Pandit, a Northeastern University postdoctoral research fellow, recently published a study in Applied Economic Letters. Photos by Alyssa Stone\/Northeastern University<\/p>\n
The intersection of minimum wage and employment is a hot topic in the world of economics. And not everyone agrees on the impact.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether (increasing) the minimum wage reduces employment and by how much literally has spurred hundreds of studies and hundreds of estimates with no real consensus,\u201d said Alicia Modestino<\/a>, executive director of the Community to Community Impact Lab<\/a> within the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy<\/a>. Pandit is part of this lab.<\/p>\n Modestino said Pandit\u2019s use of \u201cvery granular, super detailed\u201d mobile data offers an innovative approach with results that add to the existing literature on the topic.<\/p>\n The push for higher minimum wages for fast-food workers has held steadfast since the so-called Fight for $15 minimum wage effort in New York in 2012. In September 2023, the Service Employees International Union<\/a> lauded the passage of California Assembly Bill 1228, or AB-1228, which guaranteed a minimum wage of $20 per hour to fast-food workers starting in April 2024. All other California workers would be subject to the statewide minimum of $16 per hour starting that year, up from $15.50 in 2023.<\/p>\n Only national fast-food chain restaurants with at least 60 locations were affected by the law. Fast-food chains inside grocery stores, hotels and airports did not have to raise their minimums.<\/p>\n The union and other supporters of the law had pushed for a living wage for the nearly half-million fast-food workers in California. At the same time, an independent McDonald\u2019s franchisees group said the law would be a \u201cdevastating financial blow,\u201d estimating that meeting the minimum could cost each restaurant $250,000, CNBC reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a very unique policy change,\u201d Pandit said.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why he was interested in looking deeper at the law\u2019s impact. In his study, Pandit used cellphone GPS data to track staffing trends at just over 10,000 fast-food restaurants in California before and after the law went into effect.\u00a0<\/p>\n Worker shifts were determined through GPS pings that remained at a particular restaurant for at least four hours. Why? Pandit said that using these \u201clong-duration visits\u201d were a reliable way to show employment levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fewer of these \u201cvisits\u201d would show that an employer reduced the number of shifts, reduced the number of hours, or a combination.\u00a0<\/p>\n Pandit compared his findings to similar data from full-dining restaurants that weren\u2019t affected by the law.<\/p>\n After the law\u2019s passage in September 2023, there was a \u201cmeasurable 8% contraction\u201d in staffing at fast-food restaurants, a trend that continued six months later through the law\u2019s adoption, according to the study.<\/p>\n Pandit pointed to the wide-ranging debate on the minimum wage\u2019s impact on employment by citing other studies that had also analyzed this minimum wage law with findings that there was no change<\/a>, a modest change<\/a> or even negative impacts<\/a> to staffing at fast-food restaurants.<\/p>\n There are a few reasons why the results of these studies vary. For one, it\u2019s a difficult thing to measure, Modestino said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to have invented a world where the minimum wage did not increase to compare it to,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Plus, there are many ways that an employer can respond to increased minimum wages, with adjusting staffing levels as one method, making it \u201chard to gauge how much of a job killer this is,\u201d Modestino said.<\/p>\n Mindy Marks<\/a>, an associate economics professor at Northeastern University, noted that it was \u201cnot surprising that we see employment loss in this sector.\u201d<\/p>\n