New inflation stats confirm Southern California shoppers\u2019 hunch \u2014 and fear \u2014 that the cost of living is heating up again.<\/p>\n
The recent release of regional Consumer Price Indexes for September<\/a> \u2013 a rare federal data release during the government shutdown \u2013 shows that inflation not only remains problematic, but is now surging at its fastest pace since May 2024.<\/p>\n Start with the 3.5% inflation rate for Los Angeles and Orange counties. That\u2019s the biggest cost-of-living bump in 16 months and is up from a 3.3% gain for all of last year. Yes, it\u2019s nowhere near as painful as the 4.9% average annual rate during the inflationary spikes of 2021-23.<\/p>\n A similar uptick was seen in the Inland Empire. Its price index increased at a 3.6% annual pace in September, also a 16-month high and up from 2.6% last year. The Inland CPI was surging at a 6.4% annual rate in 2021-23.<\/p>\n Southern California shoppers should be thrifty because help isn\u2019t on the way. The Federal Reserve, the government\u2019s inflation hawk, has turned its attention to a weak job market<\/a>. That means more interest rate cuts to prop up hiring \u2013 financial stimulus that may further spur inflation.<\/p>\n Plus, even modest inflation has added sting when paychecks are stressed.<\/p>\n Wages increased by an average of 4.1% a year across Southern California in the second quarter, according to a federal pay index<\/a>. It\u2019s the smallest increase since 2020\u2019s third quarter. Raises had averaged 5.1% over the past four-and-a-half years.<\/p>\n Reheated inflation is not just a regional pattern.\u00a0Nationally, inflation was 3% in September, the highest since January.<\/p>\n The U.S. rate, however,\u00a0 was 3.2% last year. And don\u2019t forget inflation averaged 5.5% nationally in 2021-23.<\/p>\n Disappearing discounts<\/p>\n These are confusing times.<\/p>\n The softer economy should trim demand for many consumer goods, cooling price hikes. But merchants are facing various pressures \u2013 from rising labor and operational costs to the contentious tariffs placed on imported goods by President Trump\u2019s administration \u2013 and are passing some of those burdens on to their customers.<\/p>\n Ponder key spending areas and how inflation is percolating through them, using average price swings for the region\u2019s two metropolitan areas.\u00a0Some 2024 Southern California price cuts are hard to find this year.<\/p>\n Look at gasoline<\/a>. Fillups cost 2.5% more in the year ending in September, due to higher crude oil prices and refinery outages. That\u2019s a sharp change from a 5.5% decline for all of last year. At least fuel inflation isn\u2019t averaging 18% annually, as it did in 2021-23.<\/p>\n And there\u2019s apparel.\u00a0Much of our clothing is imported, so tariffs on foreign-made goods are likely a price challenge. Local apparel is 5.1% pricier this year, after running flat in 2024 and an average 4.4% yearly increase in 2021-23.<\/p>\n Then look at car lots<\/a>. Weak vehicle sales are keeping discounts modest for both new and used options.<\/p>\n Vehicle prices are down 0.3% in the year ending in September, but that\u2019s not the 2.1% decline seen in 2024. Additionally, the hurt of 7.3% annual gains in 2021-23 hasn\u2019t gone away.<\/p>\n Faster pace<\/p>\n Contemplate local purchases with faster inflation.<\/p>\n