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<\/a><\/p>\nAnaheim\u2019s chances of beating Edmonton? About 30 percent. Anaheim\u2019s chances of beating Vegas? About 30 percent. Odds, schmods \u2014 that\u2019s why they play the games, and the Ducks already have proof of concept they can hang with the big dogs in the Pacific.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s especially true given the way the Ducks elevated their game against the Oilers, controlling the run of play at five-on-five and via special teams for much of the series. They\u2019re peaking at the right time with a young core that\u2019s becoming special right before our eyes.<\/p>\n
The Golden Knights, though, also seem to be peaking at the right time under new coach John Tortorella. Only the Colorado Avalanche controlled play better at five-on-five than Vegas in the first round, and it\u2019s likely that will continue against the Ducks.<\/p>\n
Vegas is a heavy favorite for good reason, thanks to its puck possession dominance. But the Ducks\u2019 leveling up makes them a very good underdog.<\/p>\n
The numbers<\/p>\n
What\u2019s fueling Vegas\u2019 status as the favorite? A very balanced plus-49 Net Rating that outpaces Anaheim by 46 goals. It\u2019s a genuine contender vs. well \u2026 not that, even if it didn\u2019t exactly manifest in regular-season results for Vegas.<\/p>\n One common theme between the Ducks and Golden Knights of the regular season? Failure to convert on all of their five-on-five chances.<\/p>\n Season-wide, Vegas\u2019 scoring chance generation was a lot more middle-of-the-road, and the Ducks were one of the best shot and scoring chance creators. After the Olympics, the Golden Knights really picked up the pace to jump into the top four (a shade back of Anaheim), but neither team\u2019s actual scoring came close to expectations. And neither team\u2019s power play was effective enough, despite generating a lot of looks, to make up for it.<\/p>\n That changed for the Ducks in Round 1, whose goal scoring kept pace with their shot quality at five-on-five. And their power play was red hot.<\/p>\n Vegas had more five-on-five juice against Utah, but the power play is still very much a work in progress. There\u2019s an opportunity to build on that in this series. The Ducks defense is outright chaotic, both at even strength and in short-handed situations. So the Golden Knights should have an opening to up their scoring here.<\/p>\n That defense is what separates these two teams. Vegas plays with a lot more structure and was a top-three team in expected goal suppression in the regular season at five-on-five. There just isn\u2019t reliable enough goaltending behind it. Anaheim bleeds chances against and then tests the limits of Luk\u00e1\u0161 Dost\u00e1l\u2019s netminding to stop the damage from ending up in the back of the net.<\/p>\n The big question<\/p>\n Can the Ducks adapt to a very different opponent?<\/p>\n The Ducks generally aren\u2019t described as the prototypical playoff team \u2014 and for good reason.<\/p>\n If defense wins championships, the Ducks\u2019 playoff runway is limited. If rush-based play can\u2019t survive this tense environment, Anaheim might be in trouble.<\/p>\n Despite all that, the Ducks are here in Round 2. And they did it by playing to their strengths. That Round 1 matchup against the Oilers was a track meet; Sportlogiq<\/a> has the Ducks with 50 chances in that six-game series (and 31 against).<\/p>\n Those kinds of results were obviously a lot more feasible against Edmonton. As much as the Oilers improved in their own zone down the stretch, rush defense was always a pressure point. When Edmonton couldn\u2019t even play semicompetent defense against the Ducks in that series, Anaheim absolutely cooked offensively.<\/p>\n That extended past even-strength situations and into the power play. The Ducks generated scoring chances at a ridiculous, playoff-high rate of 13.7 per 60 and netted eight goals in just under 22 minutes.<\/p>\n But the Golden Knights aren\u2019t the Ducks. So it\u2019s going to be a test of whether Anaheim can play its game against Vegas or adapt enough to advance.<\/p>\n The Utah Mammoth tried doing the former in Round 1. At times, Utah did successfully expose the Golden Knights\u2019 lack of footspeed on the back end. The Logan Cooley line did it best and generally dominated the minutes. The problem is no one else even came close, which might be the case here as well, outside of Anaheim\u2019s top line.<\/p>\n As much as Utah\u2019s speed challenged the Golden Knights, it still dispatched them in six games. Vegas clamped down with its forecheck and slowed the game down to play to its own strengths. That was clear in the third period of Game 1, during back-to-back overtime wins to take a 3-2 series lead, and in a series-clinching Game 6.<\/p>\n The Golden Knights\u2019 play style could be a real edge. Their penalty killing could be another.<\/p>\n Just because the Ducks\u2019 power play was lights out in Round 1 doesn\u2019t mean it will be here. Utah scored 12.2 goals per 60 after the Olympics. Then, in a six-game series, the Mammoth were outscored 2-1 on the power play while being limited to just 5.8 expected goals per 60, the 13th-best mark from the playoffs. Vegas did extremely well holding Utah\u2019s best to the perimeter to take away another strength. That\u2019s what the Ducks have to be prepared for: a stingy penalty kill or not getting opportunities altogether, because those tend to dry up as the postseason rolls on, anyway.<\/p>\n Vegas knows that. For all its flaws this year, it\u2019s still an experienced team, and it showed in Round 1. As much as the Mammoth had an element of resilience in this series with third-period comebacks, it\u2019s the Golden Knights advancing to Round 2 at the end of the day. They adjusted more. They had the stamina to play upward of 80 minutes when necessary, when Utah looked pretty gassed from its run-and-gun style as time ticked on.<\/p>\n It was a tough lesson for the Mammoth in Round 1. And, if this growing Ducks team isn\u2019t ready to adapt, it could be one for them, too.<\/p>\n The X-factor<\/p>\n Can William Karlsson shift the series further in Vegas\u2019 favor?<\/p>\n Karlsson, who hasn\u2019t played a game since Nov. 8 because of a lower-body injury, was a surprise full participant in Vegas\u2019 morning skate<\/a> ahead of Game 6 against Utah. He didn\u2019t ultimately play, and Tortorella cautioned reporters his morning skate appearance wasn\u2019t necessarily a sign he\u2019s ultra close, but this does leave the door open for a possible return at some point in Round 2.<\/p>\n Karlsson still grades out as a low-end second-line center with a plus-1.0 Net Rating. Most of that is driven by his strong defensive acumen, with a plus-1.9 Defensive Rating further reinforcing Vegas\u2019 biggest strength.<\/p>\n When Vegas won the Cup in 2023, Karlsson regularly matched up against Connor McDavid and\/or Leon Draisaitl in Round 2. McDavid\u2019s and Draisaitl\u2019s lines couldn\u2019t manufacture a single five-on-five goal in their head-to-head minutes against Karlsson over the entire six-game series. Even last year, when the Oilers handily beat the Golden Knights in five games, Karlsson managed to be up 3-0 in 41 head-to-head minutes against McDavid at five-on-five.<\/p>\n Expectations would need to be tempered for Karlsson\u2019s impact after five months off, but he could still be a middle-six difference-maker against Anaheim\u2019s high-octane offensive weapons. Vegas\u2019 odds of winning the series would jump to 75 percent if Karlsson returns.<\/p>\n The rosters<\/p>\n \u201cPlayoff Mitch\u201d has a nice ring to it.<\/p>\n After struggling to elevate offensively in big moments for a decade in Toronto, Mitch Marner singlehandedly won the series-clincher for Vegas with a two-goal and 3-point effort. For the series, Marner led the team in Net Rating thanks primarily to his usual playoff calling card: staunch off-puck ability. Marner managed a 64 percent xG rate, allowing just 1.47 xGA.60 in his minutes, a mark that ranks 16th among forwards.<\/p>\n Marner doesn\u2019t get enough credit for the way his defensive game elevates in the playoffs, mostly because there\u2019s an inverse reaction offensively. Life is easier in the Pacific Division compared with the usual Atlantic gantlet Marner had to go through, but if the Golden Knights can consistently see more of Game 6 Marner, that\u2019s a big point in their favor.<\/p>\n So too is Vegas\u2019 collection of stars aside from Marner. Jack Eichel was awesome once again, scoring 9 points in six games, and Mark Stone dominated once he was paired with Marner to the tune of a 67 percent xG rate. That\u2019s a strong big three that stacks up extremely favorably to what the Ducks have on the other side.<\/p>\n There will come a time when Anaheim\u2019s star power will be just as undeniable, and though it doesn\u2019t show up on paper, it did show up at the very top of the lineup during the first round. Leo Carlsson\u2019s playoff debut was immediately special, with 8 points in six games as well as a 58 percent xG. His line with Troy Terry and Chris Kreider tilted the ice heavily despite some extremely tough matchups.<\/p>\n Now the Ducks just need their other young forwards to get there. Cutter Gauthier\u2019s offense was on a similarly elite wavelength with four goals and 7 points during the series, but he did get outchanced at five-on-five, which doesn\u2019t bode well for this series. Even worse was Beckett Sennecke, who had just a single point during the series and disappeared completely at five-on-five.<\/p>\n Getting to the Eichel-Stone-Marner level is a process, and the patience required for that doesn\u2019t work in Anaheim\u2019s immediate favor. Carlsson was great, and Gauthier made his offense count, but the Ducks need them to continue that, and they really need Sennecke to figure it out quickly. Vegas\u2019 top guys\u2019 being so strong defensively is another advantage here, too.<\/p>\n Vegas\u2019 second layer with Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl and Ivan Barbashev is another point of emphasis here, stacking up well to Anaheim\u2019s supporting cast. Though Vegas\u2019 bottom six would be a weakness against other contenders, that\u2019s not the case here, where Anaheim\u2019s also looks weak. Anaheim\u2019s fourth line had a shockingly good series, but it is difficult to expect that to be the norm.<\/p>\n On the back end, Vegas\u2019 depth and defensive might are going to be a real problem for the Ducks. Shea Theodore is an elite two-way defenseman who earned 61 percent of the xG in the first round. He\u2019s paired with a shutdown ace, Brayden McNabb, and the two allowed very little offense against Utah. Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson make up a strong puck-moving second pair, and Kaedan Korczak is an underrated gem on a sheltered third pair.<\/p>\n That ability to put out three strong pairs is not something the Ducks can keep up with, and it showed whenever Jackson LaCombe wasn\u2019t on the ice against Edmonton. As sparkling as John Carlson\u2019s regular-season numbers still were this season, he struggled heavily against Edmonton with just 41 percent of the expected goals. Some of that might be on having to carry Pavel Mintyukov, and in a playoff setting, that makes Anaheim vulnerable in the top four. It\u2019ll be interesting to see whether Olen Zellweger steps in at some point, but it\u2019s unlikely he\u2019ll be a savior here.<\/p>\n A lot rides on LaCombe\u2019s replicating his incredible performance against Connor McDavid in the first round. He led all players in Net Rating in the opening round at plus-3.6; the Ducks will need more of that to get by Vegas.<\/p>\n Star power, depth, offense, defense, forwards, defensemen \u2014 all of that leans in Vegas\u2019 favor. If the Ducks are going to pull off another upset, the biggest difference-maker will have to be goaltending. That\u2019s their advantage here. Dost\u00e1l is a legitimate starter who can steal a series; Carter Hart is an Achilles\u2019 heel who can sink a series.<\/p>\n Dost\u00e1l\u2019s high-water mark came last season, when he saved 18.9 goals above expected, and though he was only average this season, the volume he plays behind such a leaky defense should be accounted for. It\u2019s a much tougher job than he\u2019s given credit for.<\/p>\n For Hart, it\u2019s the opposite, where Vegas makes things extremely easy, and he still spent most of the year struggling. He had the third-worst GSAx from the first round. Though it\u2019s true Dost\u00e1l was one of the only goalies who was even worse, opponent difficulty plays a huge factor there, and his track record makes him a strong bet for a bounce back. It\u2019s difficult to be equally confident in Hart\u2019s rising to that level.<\/p>\n Vegas has a strong chance of controlling the shot volume in this series, but that could prove frustrating for a below-average finishing team \u2014 especially with Anaheim\u2019s high-flying counterattack going the other way. That could tilt the scales closer to even, but it\u2019s still Vegas\u2019 to lose.<\/p>\n The key matchup<\/p>\n Jack Eichel vs. Jackson LaCombe<\/p>\n LaCombe was a two-way monster in Round 1 against the Oilers. He scored 9 points in six games offensively, but most importantly, he completely locked down McDavid at five-on-five.<\/p>\n LaCombe played 66 minutes head-to-head against McDavid, in which the Ducks outshot the Oilers 42-19 and outscored them 6-2. In other words, he didn\u2019t just squeak out a marginal victory; this was total dominance territorially and on the scoreboard. Of course, a big part of that has to do with the injury McDavid suffered in Game 2, which significantly hampered his explosiveness, and that\u2019s where Eichel will present a different challenge in Round 2.<\/p>\n Eichel is coming off back-to-back 90-point seasons and scored 9 points in the first round against Utah. He isn\u2019t quite as explosive as McDavid, but he\u2019s exceptionally smooth and cerebral as a puck transporter and distributor. Now it\u2019s time to see whether LaCombe can mitigate that with his excellent puck-moving and by leveraging his elite skating to continue denying easy zone entries and rush offense.<\/p>\n The bottom line<\/p>\n On paper, it\u2019s Vegas\u2019 series to lose. The Golden Knights got hot at the right time to push through this season\u2019s challenges to get to Round 2.<\/p>\n But the game isn\u2019t played on paper, or the Ducks wouldn\u2019t be here. After they upset the Oilers, it\u2019s time to see whether that underdog energy can help the Ducks level up once again.<\/p>\n References<\/p>\n How these projections work<\/a><\/p>\n Understanding projection uncertainty\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n Resources<\/p>\n Evolving Hockey<\/a><\/p>\n Natural Stat Trick<\/a><\/p>\n Hockey Reference<\/a><\/p>\n NHL<\/a><\/p>\n All Three Zones Tracking<\/a> by Corey Sznajder<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Anaheim Ducks weren\u2019t just happy to be here; they made their first playoff appearance in eight years…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":297805,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[163,824,165,164,404,8614],"class_list":["post-297804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-anaheim","tag-anaheim","tag-anaheim-ducks","tag-anaheim-headlines","tag-anaheim-news","tag-nhl","tag-vegas-golden-knights"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/297804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=297804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/297804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/297805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=297804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=297804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=297804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n