![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/da9a89cb48bfcfe9daa72c9b3bef8e7503-ca-gov.rsquare.w400.jpg\")
<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images\n <\/p>\n
Is this really the best California Democrats can come up with? That question has hovered over this year\u2019s gubernatorial race, in which the state\u2019s voters will choose a replacement for term-limited Gavin Newsom. Kamala Harris\u2019s<\/a> expected run froze the primary candidate pool for months, but she skipped the race in favor of a book tour and possible third presidential bid, and other high-profile names took a pass as well. In a field widely acknowledged as uninspiring, Eric Swalwell<\/a> had gained serious momentum until sexual assault allegations derailed his candidacy and forced his resignation from Congress. Now, Democrats are left with a splintered field that includes Xavier Becerra<\/a>, a staid former Congressman and Biden administration official who suddenly surged in polls<\/a> after Swalwell\u2019s departure billionaire; Tom Steyer<\/a>, who has branded himself a traitor to his class; tech-forward San Jose mayor Matt Mahan<\/a>; and former Congresswoman Katie Porter,<\/a> well-known for grilling executives. In California, primaries are non-partisan, and there are also two serious, MAGA-friendly Republican candidates, Chad Bianco<\/a> and Steve Hilton<\/a>, the latter of whom gained Donald Trump\u2019s endorsement. Since the candidates who finish in first and second place will advance to November\u2019s general election, the Republicans\u2019 presence near the top of polls has raised fears that they could lock out Democrats from the governorship, even in a deep-blue state.<\/p>\n To make sense of this muddle ahead of primary day on June 2, I spoke with Dan Walters, a venerable political journalist who is an opinion columnist at the nonprofit news site CalMatters<\/a>. Walters has been covering the state since 1975, and estimates he is approaching his 11,000th column. He says this race is a mess unlike any he\u2019s seen, and explains that California\u2019s structural problems are a big reason why.<\/p>\n The man of the moment right now is Xavier Becerra, who has surged in polls and was the target of a lot of attacks<\/a> at last week\u2019s debate \u2014 usually a sign of being the front-runner. Do you agree with that characterization, and if so, do you think that status is precarious or solid? There\u2019s a lot of unease with Steyer, who\u2019s the only other Democrat really in contention now. He\u2019s an unknown quantity when it comes to governance, obviously a very rich man financing his own campaign. At the same time, he\u2019s tried to establish himself as the champion of the progressive left by endorsing all of their holy-grail issues: single-payer health care, taxing the rich, all that.<\/p>\n But he is, after all, a billionaire. He wouldn\u2019t be particularly beholden to the unions and some of the other powerful entities in the party. So he\u2019s an unknown quantity, whereas Becerra is a known quantity. There\u2019s also a history of rich people trying to run for high office in California and failing. None of them has ever succeeded.<\/p>\n That\u2019s kind of comforting. Money doesn\u2019t buy you everything. On the other hand, Becerra is not exactly a live wire. He doesn\u2019t have a lot of vigor. He\u2019s basically a reliable, go-by-the-book Democratic politician. And there are a couple of potential clouds over his head. There have been articles saying that people from the Biden administration are laughing about him. <\/p>\n Yes, Politico reported<\/a> that Biden alums are baffled that he\u2019s the frontrunner, because they think he\u2019s totally ineffectual. It involved, among others, the former chief of staff to Gavin Newsom and two underlings. The two underlings have already pleaded guilty, and the former Newsom chief of staff is awaiting trial. Becerra has always said, \u201cI know nothing about this. I was the victim. These people did this all behind my back.\u201d But there are a couple of pieces of video out there. At one point he said he knew about the checks being cut, and later he said he didn\u2019t. Is there another shoe to drop? Hypothetically, what if one of those people made a deal with the feds and said, \u2018I\u2019ll drop the dime on Becerra. He knew about this all along\u201d Well, that would destroy him.<\/p>\n So this is the craziest governor\u2019s \u2014 I can\u2019t even call it a race \u2014 it\u2019s more of a tag-team wrestling match \u2014 I\u2019ve ever seen, having covered politics in California for more than half a century. You had all these people who said, \u2018Oh, I\u2019m thinking about it,\u2019 and didn\u2019t run\u00a0 \u2014 Kamala Harris, Rob Bonta, the state attorney general, and Senator Alex Padilla.The lieutenant governor dropped out. She had tons of money. Why do you run for lieutenant governor if you don\u2019t intend to run for governor like Newsom did? It took a long time just to sort out who was running; it was right up almost to the day of the filing deadline before you even knew who was in. And by the way, there are going to be 61 names on the ballot.<\/p>\n This does not seem like an ideal system. There\u2019s been a lot of fear among Democrats that two Republicans would finish one and two and Democrats would be locked out. It seems like that fear has subsided since Swalwell dropped out, because the race has consolidated somewhat. If you\u2019d asked me before Swalwell dropped out where Becerra was, I\u2019d have said he was stuck. He was actually at two percent. Now he\u2019s up there at 18 percent. Steyer maybe picked up a percentage point after that \u2014 that\u2019s about all. And I thought Katie Porter would benefit from Swalwell\u2019s decline. After all, she was the only woman left, and given the Swalwell thing involved sexual misconduct, you might have thought people would coalesce around Katie Porter. That hasn\u2019t happened.<\/p>\n Is that because of the problems she had early in the campaign? Video came out of her berating a staffer<\/a>, and she gave a testy TV interview<\/a>. It seems like she hasn\u2019t been able to recover. Yeah. Oh boy. Do you think that\u2019s just a hazard of being a woman? Does anyone ever call a man a scold? And why hasn\u2019t Steyer caught fire? Is it because voters are wary of him, or more that the quote-unquote establishment is? Why is this powerful job so unattractive to so many candidates who could win? People have been leaving<\/a>. We have not gained any population at all this decade. We have not actually had any net job gains this decade. People know this stuff. So you say, \u201cOkay, I want to run for governor. Why?\u201d It\u2019s just a big pile of shit that\u2019s going to be left behind by Newsom when he walks out the door. It was the same pile of shit he inherited from Jerry Brown, more or less. The homelessness problem wasn\u2019t that bad then. But if anything, these things have gotten worse. They have not gotten any better.<\/p>\n So you\u2019re telling me this is a perfect springboard for Newsom\u2019s 2028 presidential run. So people who are more serious, who may be interested in actual governance, look at this and say, \u201cI can\u2019t win.\u201d There\u2019s a $20-to-$30 billion chronic deficit in the state budget that\u2019s been going on now for four years, and they keep papering it over with creative accounting and optimistic revenue projections. They finally admitted, about a year ago, they had made a $165 billion error<\/a> in estimating revenues. That\u2019s a big number.<\/p>\n But these people who might have run for governor \u2014 they know all of this. They know about the poverty, they know about the unemployment, they know about the corporations leaving California for Texas, the population leaving California for Texas. And they might say, \u201cWell, I don\u2019t need this shit.\u201d So yeah, I don\u2019t know why Newsom would run for president. He\u2019s an oppo researcher\u2019s dream in a lot of respects.<\/p>\n I haven\u2019t mentioned the Republicans in this race at all. I assume they\u2019re running on all the systemic issues you just mentioned? You\u2019d think a state as powerful and rich as the California Newsom always talks about should produce some better candidates.You look at Matt Mahan. He\u2019s been a big disappointment. He has money from Silicon Valley,<\/a> and he\u2019s a knowledgeable guy. He\u2019s been a successful mayor of the third-largest city in the state. But he\u2019s like Becerra when it comes to personality \u2014 bland, beige. And he got in very late. They didn\u2019t get a campaign going for the longest time, they had a shake-up, and he never really got out of first gear. He probably would\u2019ve been a pretty capable governor if he could have done it, but it\u2019s not gonna happen. He got in because the people in Silicon Valley said, \u201cLook at all these bozos. We can do better than that. How about you, Matt? Do you want to run for governor?\u201d<\/p>\n Yet another example of hubris. Many of the tech billionaires have moved to the right in this era, of course. Just yesterday, the Democratic leadership of the state Assembly put forth a so-called blueprint<\/a> for the upcoming budget, and it starts out by blaming Donald Trump for everything that\u2019s wrong in California. A great work of fiction. But it\u2019s an incredibly difficult state to govern. It\u2019s geographically big, it\u2019s very diverse economically, culturally, ethnically, everything. Trying to wade through all of that and actually deal with some of these issues is almost impossible. The interests are so varied, the lobbyists are so skilled. We have ten lobbyists for every member of the legislature. The interests are so entrenched that you just can\u2019t crack it. Newsom tried by issuing executive decrees, but that hasn\u2019t really done anything either. You can\u2019t make water run upstream, and he\u2019s tried to.<\/p>\n Are you conservative by nature, or more of an equal-opportunity critic? Given how weak this field is, is there any possibility that the top two advance to the general election and then something wacky happens \u2014 like one of the people who originally passed on the race launching a write-in campaign? It contradicts what you just said about nobody wanting the job, but it\u2019s such an odd circumstance that it feels like there might be another turn of the screw here. Then he\u2019d really be correct about blaming Trump. Do you think he\u2019s going to end up endorsing in the gubernatorial race? But there\u2019ve been a whole bunch of surprises already. If you\u2019d gone back a year and said, \u2018How does this spin itself out?\u2019 you would never have come up with the scenario that actually happened. It\u2019s just crazy. I\u2019ve covered a lot of governor\u2019s races in California. There was always a frontrunner, and they always emerged early in the game and were declaring two years out. Jerry Brown was the same way. Gavin Newsom \u2014 everybody knew he was going to run for governor, never any doubt. The only x-factor governor we\u2019ve had in recent history was Arnold Schwarzenegger. Other than that, it\u2019s been more or less by the book. The guy Schwarzenegger beat, Gray Davis, had been lieutenant governor. He climbed the ladder, just like Newsom did, became governor, and got knocked out because he was a lousy governor. Before that, Pete Wilson \u2014 everybody knew he was running.<\/p>\n But this is one for the history books. There\u2019s been something that even begins what\u2019s gone in this cycle. It\u2019s absolutely nutsoid. And who\u2019s to say all the crazy stuff has ended? I\u2019m not going to say it. That would be stupid. It\u2019s an absolute mess. I pity the poor voters. What are they supposed to make of it? I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s pretty solid. It was remarkable how he came from almost nothing to become the leader of the upper tier \u2014 I\u2019ll call it the upper tier \u2014 after Eric Swalwell flamed out. I didn\u2019t originate this, but I think it\u2019s accurate: he\u2019s the California Biden. There\u2019s no real mystery about him. Maybe it\u2019s simply that after seven years of Gavin Newsom<\/a>, people want a little peace. Whatever it is, what I would call the Democratic establishment rolled in behind Becerra pretty quickly. And he\u2019s got union support, particularly the real left-wing unions, like the United Nurses Association.<\/p>\n
Meg Whitman spent $150 million trying to prevent Jerry Brown from becoming governor for the second time, back in 2010, and she failed miserably. In 1998, two self-funded candidates<\/a> did what people called a murder-suicide act, and both of them lost. So there\u2019s that history.<\/p>\n
He didn\u2019t really blaze any new trails as Secretary of Health and Human Services. The other thing is this crazy scandal<\/a> involving his campaign account, which is what Steyer is hitting hardest in his anti-Becerra ads. Becerra\u2019s chief of staff, a guy who followed him to Washington, set up a deal in which he was going to tap Becerra\u2019s campaign fund for some extra income. People are going to jail over this thing.<\/p>\n
All but a handful are vanity runs. Nobody knows who they are, but they\u2019re on the ballot getting votes. The top-two system really comes down to this: Who\u2019s coming in second? That\u2019s the game. Will it be two Democrats? Two Republicans? One of each, which is probably the most likely? You never know. The dynamics are screwy because of that. Most of them are really trying to get to second place.<\/p>\n
Yeah, he did the Democratic Party a favor by dropping out in that regard, because it changed the arithmetic. So actually, there are some Republicans who ought to worry about the opposite \u2014 that two Democrats will win the top two spots and Republicans will be frozen out. Of course, it doesn\u2019t really matter for the Republicans. Their only chance of electing a governor was to have a one\u2013two finish. Once you get past that, it\u2019s all just for fun. A Democrat will be the elected next governor \u2014 that\u2019s simple math in California. So the real mystery is who finishes second, because that determines the entire outcome in the fall.<\/p>\n
Have you ever heard her talk?<\/p>\n
She comes across as a Karen.<\/p>\n
She\u2019s a scold. That\u2019s how she comes across to me. I think that has hurt her a lot, and it was reinforced by those videos.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s some of that, yeah. I won\u2019t deny it. We\u2019ve never had a woman governor in California \u2014 other states have. So sure, that\u2019s probably part of it. But where are the women in all this? They have not rushed to help her become governor. Whatever the reason, the fact is that being a woman has not helped her in this campaign.<\/p>\n
Well, they are. But the Democratic Party in California is the furthest thing from being a monolith. It\u2019s a collection of disparate interests. This is\u00a0 what happens when a party becomes dominant \u2014 and I\u2019ve been writing about this for years and years. When one party becomes dominant, it splits into factions \u2014 quasi-parties. And that\u2019s what the Democratic Party of California is \u2014 a group of quasi-parties defined by ideology, ethnicity, gender, geography, all these things. There\u2019s no real top-down leadership like there is in other states. So that\u2019s why your choices now, if you\u2019re a Democrat, are basically Becerra or Steyer. It\u2019s by default. This whole campaign is by default. Who\u2019s left standing at the end?<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll tell you why. California is essentially ungovernable. It has a multitude of pressing, almost existential issues that Newsom hasn\u2019t been able to crack. The next governor is going to inherit a big fat mess on their plate: huge budget deficits, one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, housing shortages, more homeless people than any other state. We have the highest poverty in the country,<\/a> according to the Census Bureau, when you use the alternative, more realistic measure that includes living costs. California\u2019s living costs are out of sight; the median home price is $800,000. Nobody can afford that other than the really well-to-do, or people who got in early and built up equity. Rents are extremely high. There\u2019s $6 gas. And even before Iran, it was $4.50, $5 gas. We have the highest gas taxes in the country and the highest income tax.<\/p>\n
\ufeffHe thinks it is. But that\u2019s Newsom. Newsom\u2019s ego is so big he can\u2019t walk through a door. He thinks he\u2019s the king of the world. When he ran, he said he was going to build 3.5 million new houses in California. Yeah, right. He said he was going to bring in single-payer health care \u2014 the people who are now endorsing Steyer endorsed him back then. And of course he didn\u2019t deliver any of this stuff, because he couldn\u2019t. There was no way he could ever deliver it.<\/p>\n
They are. \u201cElect a Republican, I\u2019ll fix it on day one.\u201d I\u2019m a little impressed by Hilton. He actually comes across as knowledgeable. And with that British accent \u2014 British accents always sound authoritative. He doesn\u2019t attack people on a personal level. He talks about issues. He wouldn\u2019t be any more successful than Newsom \u2014 probably less \u2014 but I have a hunch he\u2019s going to come in second, and that either Steyer or Becerra will come in first. I think it\u2019s probably going to be Becerra. It would be a very interesting set of debates between Hilton and Becerra. Hilton would probably clean his clock, but it doesn\u2019t make any difference. He\u2019s still not going to be elected governor.<\/p>\n
One of the interesting things going on in California right now is that in the past, Silicon Valley hardly ever paid attention to state government. They were always interested in the federal government. But suddenly, over the last few months, when that tax-the-billionaires measure for billionaires headed for the ballot, they\u2019ve become very interested in Sacramento. And they started pumping money not only into Mahan but into a bunch of down-ballot contests as well. A lot of these guys have bailed on California and moved their operations to Texas or Florida, where there\u2019s no income tax, but they\u2019ve been participating, which itself is remarkable, because they never did before.<\/p>\n
Yeah, and a lot of them have cozied up to Trump, obviously. But it\u2019s a weird thing. If you look at this from outer space, California really has some existential issues \u2014 the flight of business, the flight of people, the lack of job growth, the stagnant population. We\u2019re going to lose four or five seats when they shuffle Congress after the 2030 census. There are some canaries in the coal mine telling California generally that the state has serious issues, and the politicians should be dealing with them rather than blaming everything in the world on Donald Trump. But that\u2019s what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n
\ufeffI\u2019m an equal-opportunity asshole. I just try to say it as it is. If they\u2019ve overspent the revenues, say that. Why indulge in the fiction that Donald Trump is the source of all the problems in California? It\u2019s just ludicrous. In fact, a couple of guys said this during the debate \u2014 I think Mahan said it, and I think Antonio Villaraigosa<\/a> said it: \u201cHey, we had these problems long before Donald Trump, and all you guys want to do is blame Trump, blame Trump, blame Trump. You\u2019re going to arrest ICE agents? Yeah, good luck with that.\u201d<\/p>\n
\ufeffYou can never count out the x factor in politics. Swalwell is the perfect example of an x factor. Let\u2019s say hypothetically that Becerra comes in first, and Hilton comes in second. And then one of the people involved in that campaign-account fraud says, \u2018I want to make a deal,\u2019 and drops a dime on Becerra. Would the Trump Justice Department be averse to accepting some sort of plea? Because this is a federal case we\u2019re talking about.<\/p>\n
I sometimes think you\u2019d better find out who\u2019s running for lieutenant governor, because the next governor might not make it very far. If it\u2019s a Republican, the Democrats will just impeach him immediately. It\u2019s interesting that Gavin Newsom has not endorsed anybody for governor, but he has endorsed somebody for lieutenant governor, a guy who used to work for him by the name of Fryday]. Maybe that\u2019s a coincidence, I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n
No, he\u2019s not. And from his standpoint, for good reason. Why would he piss off everybody else? He probably wouldn\u2019t help, anyway. The only major political figure who\u2019s actually stepped up to endorse somebody, interestingly enough, is Willie Brown, the former speaker of the state Assembly. He endorsed Steyer<\/a> the other day. I don\u2019t know how much it cost Steyer to get that.<\/p>\n