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\n California\u2019s nonpartisan top-two primary system could make British former political operative Steve Hilton an unlikely Republican governor.
\n Photo: Mario Tama\/Getty Images\n <\/p>\n
For decades, many Democratic and Republican centrists (along with good-government types) have blamed partisan primaries for a lot of our political system\u2019s ills. In 2009, one Republican centrist from California, Abel Maldonado, had a chance to do something about it, as CalMatters recently explained<\/a>:<\/p>\n In a top-two system, labeled a \u201cjungle primary\u201d by its opponents, all candidates for an office are listed on the same ballot and the two top finishers, regardless of party, then duel in the November general election.<\/p>\n It came about because in 2009, Democratic leaders of the state Senate desperately needed one more vote to pass a controversial budget and turned to moderate Republican Sen. Abel Maldonado to provide it. However, Maldonado \u2014 with the support of then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger \u2014 insisted that his vote hinged on placing the top-two primary before voters.<\/p>\n Democrats eventually agreed and Proposition 14, creating the top-two system, appeared\u00a0on the June 2010 primary ballot with Maldonado and Schwarzenegger contending that it would give moderates and pragmatists in both parties better chances of winning legislative and congressional seats. The leaders of every political party opposed the measure but voters passed it handily.<\/p>\n Implemented in the 2012 elections, the top-two system has consistently been a source of confusion for California voters. They have struggled to get used to primary ballots with vast numbers of candidates from all sorts of parties along with self-identified \u201cno party preference\u201d independents. These nonpartisan primaries have produced one Democratic and one Republican general-election candidate in most competitive elections. But there have been periodic \u201clockouts,\u201d in which candidates from one party win first and second place in the primary, then face each other in the general election. This possibility can lead to gamesmanship and strategic voting when it matters a great deal whether a lockout occurs, notably in a 2024 U.S. Senate race in which Democratic front-runner Adam Schiff<\/a> spent a lot of money boosting the visibility of Republican Steve Garvey<\/a> so Garvey would win a spot in the general election. This allowed Schiff to easily trounce<\/a> the Republican in November, rather than run against fellow Democrat Katie Porter<\/a>.<\/p>\n But this year, a large gubernatorial field with no front-runner has led to chronic and near-existential fears<\/a> among the state\u2019s now-dominant Democrats that the top-two system could place two MAGA Republicans in the general election despite a pro-Democratic national wave. We won\u2019t know whether that nightmare scenario will actually unfold until after June 3, when voting in California\u2019s all-mail-ballot contest ends. It\u2019s also possible a Democratic lockout will occur, which would generate its own set of strange incentives for candidates and voters. In any event, the situation has revived long-standing grievances against top-two in both political parties \u2014 and now a potential ballot initiative to get rid of the whole damn thing, as the New York Times reports<\/a>:<\/p>\n Democratic strategist [Steven Maviglio] is launching a campaign to repeal the California primary system, an effort that is likely to attract serious backing not only from labor unions, but also from some Republicans and third-party organizations.<\/p>\n The new proposal, filed Friday with state elections officials, would end the nonpartisan top-two primary and revert to a traditional primary in which one candidate from each party advances to the general election.<\/p>\n It would have to be approved by voters, and backers are hoping to place it on the 2028 ballot. If approved, it would have its first widespread use in 2030 elections, including the governor\u2019s race \u2026<\/p>\n Though his initiative, \u201cUndo the Top Two,\u201d was inspired by Democrats\u2019 angst, Mr. Maviglio has assembled supporters from across the political spectrum. The emerging coalition includes Democrats, Republicans and leaders of the state\u2019s Green and Libertarian parties, which have been locked out of most general elections in California since voters passed the top-two system in 2010.<\/p>\n Without question, minor parties in California really hate top-two since it abolished their guaranteed general-election ballot lines. But even though the system may benefit Republicans in this particular gubernatorial race, the GOP\u2019s dominant conservatives tend to hate it because it offers a path to election for centrist RINOs, whom they despise as much as or more than Democrats.<\/p>\n California isn\u2019t the only state with nonpartisan primaries. For many years, Louisiana has deployed a nonpartisan jungle primary<\/a> in which candidates from both parties compete in November; if no one wins a majority, the two candidates proceed to a post-November runoff. But the state returned to partisan primaries for U.S. Senate and U.S. House contests<\/a> this year. Washington had adopted the top-two system earlier<\/a>, in 2004, and though party professionals continue to hate it, it seems to have become part of the state\u2019s political identity to a much greater extent than in California. Nebraska<\/a> uses top-two for legislative primaries, but that makes some sense because its legislature is officially nonpartisan (and unicameral).<\/p>\n Alaska, a state with an unusually large number of independent voters and quite a few notable centrist politicians in both parties, adopted a similar top-four system<\/a> by ballot initiative in 2020. Its wrinkle is that the general election features ranked-choice voting<\/a> to resolve the outcome. Alaska\u2019s system produced a fascinating result in 2022, when centrist Democrat Mary Peltola<\/a> defeated former governor and vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin<\/a> in general-election ranked-choice voting, and centrist Republican Lisa Murkowski<\/a> headed off a conservative MAGA challenge the same year. Indeed, the two women endorsed each other<\/a> across party lines. Subsequently, Alaska conservatives tried to repeal top-four<\/a> in a 2024 ballot initiative, but the bid narrowly failed.<\/p>\n While the nonpartisan primaries in Alaska seem to have served the intended purpose of strengthening centrists in both parties and encouraging a degree of bipartisanship, it\u2019s not so clear it worked in California. Since Arnold Schwarzenegger retired as governor (and with him, his second-term lieutenant governor, Maldonado), hardcore conservatives have reasserted control of the GOP and progressives remain very strong in the Democratic Party. The most notable effect of top-two has been to significantly lower turnout<\/a> in the primary, since no party nomination is on the line, and sometimes in the general election because lockouts discourage the locked-out party\u2019s voters from participating at all.<\/p>\n But a lot of voters don\u2019t like either political party or political parties generally, so top-two could remain to bedevil politicians and voters alike for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n