The general consensus among political analysts is that Sen. Scott Wiener is going to come in first place on June 2 no matter what.<\/p>\n
Polls<\/a> indicate that Wiener will likely receive some 40 percent of the votes in the primary, while the other leading candidates, District 1 supervisor Connie Chan and tech centimillionaire Saikat Chakrabarti, are likely to each receive about 20 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n The only path for Chan or Chakrabarti to ultimately win in November is to win over all of the other\u2019s supporters, those numbers show. But, to Wiener\u2019s benefit, the fierce competition unfolding between supporters<\/a> of the two progressives for the June 2 primary may be undermining that possibility.<\/p>\n \u201cF**k Connie Chan,\u201d tweeted<\/a> one Chakrabarti supporter. \u201cSaikat is a fraud,\u201d a Chan supporter tweeted<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ouch. And it\u2019s only an appetizer of the enmity between the two rivals.<\/p>\n Wiener, for his part, appears to prefer to face Chan in November over the deep-pocketed Chakrabarti, according to political advisors watching the race. He\u2019s so keen to see this happen that Wiener\u2019s camp has contributed to Chan\u2019s recent comeback: The state senator praised Chan in a recent video<\/a> while criticizing Chakrabarti, and the Wiener camp also recently sponsored a poll which reinforced the idea that Chan and Chakrabarti are tied for second place.\u00a0<\/p>\n Before May, Chan tanked in polls<\/a>. But the race outlook has been reset after the release of three polls over the past two weeks, including the one conducted by a pro-Wiener super PAC.<\/p>\n Chan led Chakrabarti by 3 percent in an internal poll<\/a> released by Chan\u2019s campaign, 1 percent in a poll commissioned by a pro-Wiener super PAC<\/a>, and was just 1 percent behind Chakrabarti in a San Francisco Chronicle poll<\/a>, all within the margin of error.<\/p>\n Being neck-and-neck with Chan may actually mean Chakrabarti is behind, political consultants say: He needs to be at least several percentage points ahead of her in polls now to be comfortable of a June victory.<\/p>\n That is because Chan\u2019s base, the Chinese American community, is almost always undercounted even in bilingual polls \u2014 many are hard to reach. Those voters are likely to give Chan an extra boost at the ballot box.<\/p>\n Moreover, the broad labor coalition<\/a> rallying behind Chan is known for effectively mobilizing volunteers to get out the vote in the weeks leading up to Election Day, giving Chan another last-minute boost.<\/p>\n The math problem in June<\/p>\n Making it into the top two in June doesn\u2019t require many voters \u2014 perhaps as few as 50,000, according to back-of-the-envelope arithmetic by political consultants.<\/p>\n Congressional District 11 has 470,539<\/a> registered voters as of May 15, according to the city\u2019s Department of Elections. For a primary election that has few exciting ballot measures and no compelling gubernatorial candidate, consultants say voter turnout will be no more than 50 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n If Wiener gets around 40 percent of that, and Republican and conservative voters account for another 15 percent, any candidate with 50,000 or 60,000 votes will be in a good position to come in second, said political consultant Jim Stearns.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAs a strategist, I probably need 25 percent to be number two. I could be really sure I would come in number two if I had 30 percent. Thirty percent would be 65,000 to 70,000,\u201d he said. \u201cMaybe your vote goal would be 75,000 votes.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s good for Chan, who has lagged behind in the money race<\/a>. \u201cEven with less funding, if Connie can focus and target her campaign communications, she might be able to be effective because she has a base to start with,\u201d said Stearns, who said a Chan victory is \u201cwithin reach.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cHonestly, 75,000 votes is not that expensive,\u201d Stearns said. \u201cYou can focus your resources on a smaller group, and that\u2019s a benefit for Connie.\u201d<\/p>\n By way of comparison, Aaron Peskin, the leading progressive candidate in the 2024 mayoral election, won 89,215 votes, or 23 percent of first-choice votes<\/a>. Chan has picked up almost the entire Peskin political coalition, and she has her own additional Asian community base.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chan has over $1 million<\/a> backing her now, but during the months when she was severely constrained by a lack of funds and personnel, Chakrabarti and Marie Hurabiell, the conservative candidate in the race, had nonstop communication with her base.<\/p>\n A free-for-all for votes from different groups<\/p>\n Chan and Chakrabarti share a progressive ideology, with Chan running a bit more of an identity campaign focused on her working-class and immigrant background<\/a>, and Chakrabarti running a much more ideological campaign, said political consultant Jim Ross.<\/p>\n While progressive groups have generally endorsed Chan, progressive voters are divided on the congressional race, consultants said.<\/p>\n Chakrabarti\u2019s anti-establishment, anti-Pelosi message has gained popularity among many, especially younger voters who don\u2019t usually tune in to city politics. The caveat is that many who have created online hype for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez\u2019s former chief of staff may not actually turn out to vote \u2014 and many others don\u2019t even live in California, let alone the 11th congressional district.<\/p>\n \u201cRemember, the people who actually come to vote in June are going to be primarily older,\u201d said Stearns. \u201cIf in the city you have an overall turnout of 45 percent, which is what I would expect, the turnout among voters under 45 is more likely to be 30 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n Similarly, Chan\u2019s Chinese American voter base is also known for low turnout in most races. Both candidates are focused on getting their main supporters out to vote. <\/p>\n Chakrabarti\u2019s wealth has helped, but will it be enough? Daniel Lurie, the last candidate who had relatively little name recognition but won a citywide race, had some $18 million behind him, a figure difficult to match. Chakrabarti\u2019s latest filing as of the end of March shows a mere $5.2 million<\/a>. \u201cHe needs to move dramatically,\u201d said Ross. <\/p>\n Chakrabarti has been pouring money into the race, but the full picture will remain unclear until the next filing deadline on May 21, which will cover activities from April 1 to May 13<\/a>. It\u2019s likely to be an astronomical number since he reported another $1.1 million contribution on May 14, the first day candidate committees need to start filing notices for larger contributions every 48 hours<\/p>\n Also, unlike New York City, which has produced national Democratic rising stars like Ocasio-Cortez and Zohran Mamdani, San Francisco doesn\u2019t have a good track record of electing insurgent candidates, said Jeremy Lee, president of Rose Pak Asian American Club. Its contributions to higher politics are typically establishment figures like Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n Emphasizing affordability and cost of living is the solution for Chan, a progressive who can marry that message to a pro-car, anti-upzoning appeal for a Chinese voting bloc concerned about public safety, said Stearns.<\/p>\n \u201cShe needs to braid together moderates and progressives and she needs to do that through an economic, non-ideological lens,\u201d said Stearns. That\u2019s Chan\u2019s main message: helping working families.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chan has \u201cthe potential to unite the Chinese community,\u201d Lee said. But this community, which accounts for 14 percent of votes and around 67,000 voters, according to stats from political consultant David Ho, who is leading a pro-Chan PAC, is also coveted by all major candidates.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chakrabarti especially has pursued that bloc. He has more than 20 paid Cantonese canvassers<\/a>, following a strategy that Lurie used successfully<\/a> to lock down the Asian electorate.<\/p>\n For his part, Wiener has invested hundreds of hours over the years participating in numerous Chinese community events. \u201cThe Chinese community really values just showing up \u2026 it means more in the Chinese community than it does in other communities,\u201d said Lee. (Over the years, many city officials have earned a poor reputation among Chinese voters simply by skipping events.)\u00a0<\/p>\n Thomas Li, president of the Edwin M. Lee Asian Pacific Democratic Club, said that even though the Chinese community \u201chad a history of supporting folks who identify as Chinese,\u201d the bloc has become less reliable for Chinese candidates.<\/p>\n \u201cThe new generation of Chinese Americans look beyond racial identity,\u201d he said. Immigrant Chinese families or low-income earners, for instance, have very different priorities versus affluent Chinese homeowners.\u00a0<\/p>\n Hurabiell proves that point. She has earned the support of some conservative-leaning Chinese American figures and groups, including former school board member Ann Hsu, the Association for the Advancement of Asians<\/a>, and the historic Wah Ying Club<\/a>. Hurabiell \u201cshares the same values as most of Chinese Americans in San Francisco,\u201d said Hsu<\/a>.<\/p>\n Chan was also supposed to get the non-Chinese conservative NIMBY voters on the Westside, but Hurabiell has come in and taken some of them, too.<\/p>\n Wiener has a moderate ideology by San Francisco standards. He\u2019s pro-housing and a little more fiscally conservative and supportive of business. \u201cHe has pretty solidified that [middle] lane in the primary,\u201d said Ross.<\/p>\n Chakrabarti also wants the urbanist voters \u2014 a recent notable ad<\/a> said the candidate would focus on \u201cbuilding new housing\u201d \u2014 and many YIMBYs in San Francisco have been attracted to his agenda. Still, this is a base Wiener has cultivated for years.<\/p>\n Chakrabarti \u201cshould be making the case that it\u2019s him, not Wiener who can actually forward this YIMBY agenda,\u201d said Stearns.<\/p>\n Chan, who has relatively low name recognition on the east side of the city, would most likely win the half of the voters in her Richmond District who backed her in her 2024 race. The other half, which voted for Marjan Philhour then, would perhaps go to Wiener, who shares Philhour\u2019s moderate ideology and connections. Chakrabarti, though, has also put in efforts in courting Richmond District voters \u2014 he even has a billboard<\/a> at Geary and 25th.\u00a0<\/p>\n Chan also enjoys popularity in the Sunset, where she has the support of three of the five<\/a> candidates running for District 4 supervisor<\/a>; the other two have not pledged. What works even better for her is that District 4 may have a higher turnout<\/a> in June because of its supervisorial race. So will District 2<\/a>, which is generally considered a Wiener stronghold<\/a>, though Hurabiell is also vying<\/a> for its votes.<\/p>\n Chan\u2019s two main rivals are not as fortunate on the Westside. Chakrabarti will be constrained by his vote for<\/a> Sunset Dunes park. Wiener, who was a strong supporter of Joel Engardio, Sunset Dunes, and upzoning, has to address the frustration of some Westside voters; he has long acknowledged<\/a> that he does less well there because of his YIMBY stances.<\/p>\n Regardless, San Francisco\u2019s next congressperson will need to fill the shoes of one of the House\u2019s foremost power brokers \u2014 no easy task.<\/p>\n \u201cShe is able to bring together donors, like few other people in the Democratic Party, and bringing those donors to bear on behalf of other politicians has allowed her to build power, to hold power and to exercise power,\u201d said Eric Kingsbury, manager of former mayor London Breed\u2019s 2024 campaign.\u00a0<\/p>\n Without that, Kingsbury said, \u201cSan Francisco will be left in a worse place than we were under Nancy Pelosi.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t