{"id":33186,"date":"2025-11-01T08:34:08","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T08:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/33186\/"},"modified":"2025-11-01T08:34:08","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T08:34:08","slug":"csuf-economists-examine-2026-outlook-in-winds-of-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/33186\/","title":{"rendered":"CSUF Economists Examine 2026 Outlook in \u2018Winds of Change\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\"AnilCal State Fullerton economists Anil Puri and Mira Farka presented their 31st annual Economic Forecast to more than 500 Orange County business leaders.\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t <\/p>\n

With epoch-defining policy shifts sweeping through the United States and the global economy, nationally recognized Cal State Fullerton economists Anil K. Puri and Mira Farka<\/a> presented their insights into the current economic environment regionally and nationwide on Thursday at the 31st Annual Economic Forecast Conference<\/a> presented by CSUF<\/a> and the Orange County Business Council<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Puri and Farka used analogies like this year\u2019s nostalgic movie remake \u201cThe Naked Gun\u201d to describe the stage on which the U.S. and global economy has played out this year: plenty of mayhem (tariffs at Depression-era highs), hair-raising moments (a 23% market swoon), and near-catastrophes (a trade war escalation halted on the brink).<\/p>\n

At the conference attended by more than 500 Orange County business leaders, the economists presented findings from their Economic Forecast Report<\/a>, which outlines where the economy is headed over the next three years, and what that means for business owners and organizations. \u201cWinds of Change,\u201d the title of this year\u2019s forecast, reflects uncertainty around inflation, trade policy and geopolitical risk that can cloud the economic outlook.<\/p>\n

However, Puri and Farka argued that even as tariff negotiations and global tensions persist, markets continue to climb.<\/p>\n

\u201cUsing the word stagflation (characterized by slow economic growth, high unemployment and high inflation) is a little bit too heavy,\u201d said Farka, co-director of CSUF\u2019s Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting<\/a> and professor of economics. \u201cWe think we\u2019ll get snagflation. You have a bit of inflation and a labor market that\u2019s in a bit of a soft patch, or a snag.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the labor market has hit a snag, Farka said it is not unravelling. She also said that indicators that hint at a recession, like recent trends in consumers\u2019 discretionary spending, are still doing OK.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Other areas of optimism include a continuing AI boom, corporate profits that should remain strong, European spending on defense, which should help their economies and U.S. corporation earnings (which derive 20% of earnings from Europe), and rate cuts.<\/p>\n

The report notes that consumer spending has held up admirably over the past year \u2014 brushing off tariffs, a cooling labor market and persistent worries about the economy. Spending at U.S. retailers came in much higher than anticipated in August. Real spending has averaged 2.8% this year compared to last year\u2019s 2.9%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t expect a recession,\u201d Farka said. \u201cWe\u2019ll call it resiliency amidst anxiety.\u201d<\/p>\n

Puri, director of CSUF\u2019s Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, spoke on conditions in California and Orange County, which are \u201cweathering hurricane-force gusts\u201d across multiple sectors that impact quality of life. He noted the recent departure of several large corporate headquarters from the state reflect the cost and complexity of doing business in California.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Since 2020, the state \u2014 particularly Southern California \u2014 has also fallen behind the nation\u2019s stronger pace of job creation. The report notes that the high cost of living in Southern California is a concern as labor market woes in the region extend to the labor force. Regional concerns also include high energy costs, high cost of regulations, and a recent surge in home insurance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Farka said California\u2019s population decreased by 0.3% over the past five years. Not surprisingly, the labor force has grown much more tepid than elsewhere. Over the past decade, the U.S. labor force expanded by 8.6%, compared with 3.6% in Orange County and 1.7% in Los Angeles County.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhy is the labor force growth so slow? California is one of the most expensive states,\u201d Puri said. \u201cIf you look within California, most of the jobs have come from where the housing is more affordable, such as the Inland Empire, Central Valley and Greater Sacramento area.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the U.S. economy overall remains resilient, even if the labor market is stalled and inflation is edging up. Though risks exist, the report states that the U.S. economy has muddled through and so far is coming out fine.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, economies of Southern California are expected to see much slower employment growth over the next two years compared to their historical trend.<\/p>\n

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