{"id":33351,"date":"2025-11-01T11:34:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T11:34:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/33351\/"},"modified":"2025-11-01T11:34:06","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T11:34:06","slug":"proposition-50-could-disenfranchise-republican-california-voters-will-it-survive-a-legal-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/33351\/","title":{"rendered":"Proposition 50 could disenfranchise Republican California voters. Will it survive a legal challenge?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Six years ago, when the U.S. Supreme Court upheld<\/a> highly partisan state election maps in North Carolina and Maryland \u2014 ruling <\/a>that federal courts cannot block states from drawing up maps that favor one party over the other \u2014 one of the court\u2019s liberal justices issued a warning.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf left unchecked, gerrymanders like the ones here may irreparably damage our system of government,\u201d Associate Justice Elena Kagan wrote in a dissent.<\/p>\n

Kagan argued that Republicans in North Carolina and Democrats in Maryland \u2014 the two examples before the court \u2014 had rigged elections in a way that \u201cdeprived citizens of the most fundamental of their constitutional rights,\u201d \u201cdebased and dishonored our democracy\u201d and turned \u201cupside-down the core American idea that all governmental power derives from the people.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAsk yourself,\u201d Kagan said as she recounted what had happened in each state: \u201cIs this how American democracy is supposed to work?\u201d<\/p>\n

That’s the question Californians are now weighing as they decide how, or whether, to vote on Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s plan to scrap congressional maps drawn by the state\u2019s independent redistricting commission and replace them with maps drawn by legislators to favor Democrats through 2030.<\/p>\n

Democrats don\u2019t deny that the measure is a deliberate attempt to dilute GOP voting power.<\/p>\n

From the start, they\u2019ve argued that the point of redistricting is to weaken Republicans\u2019 voting power in California \u2014 a move they justify on the grounds that it is a temporary fix to offset similar partisan gerrymandering by Texas Republicans. This summer, President Trump upped the ante, pressing Texas to rejigger maps to shore up the GOP\u2019s narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 election.<\/p>\n

Experts say opponents of Proposition 50 have no viable federal legal challenge against the new maps on the basis that they disenfranchise a large chunk of California Republicans. Even since the 2019 U.S. Supreme Court decision Rucho vs. Common Cause, complaints of partisan gerrymandering have no path in federal court.<\/p>\n

Already, Proposition 50 has survived challenges in state court and is unlikely to be successfully challenged if passed, said Richard L. Hasen, professor of law and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA School of Law.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you’re a Republican in California, or you’re a Democrat in Texas, you’re about to get a lot less representation in Congress,\u201d Hasen said. \u201cI don’t think there’s anything you can do about that.\u201d<\/p>\n

If Californians vote in favor of the measure on Tuesday, the number of Republicans in the state’s House \u2014 nine of 52 total members \u2014 would likely be reduced by five. That could mean Republicans have less than 10% of California’s congressional representation even though Trump won 38% of the 2024 vote.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll of this is unconstitutional, but the federal courts aren’t available to help,\u201d said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Law School.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery time you redraw a district specifically to protect some candidates and punish others,” Levitt said, “what you’re basically saying is it shouldn’t be up to the voters to weigh in on whether they think the candidates are doing a good job or not.”<\/p>\n

Possible legal avenues<\/p>\n

But even if the issue of partisan gerrymandering is blocked in federal courts, there are other potential legal avenues to challenge California\u2019s new legislative maps.<\/p>\n

One route would be to claim that Proposition 50 violates the California Constitution.<\/p>\n

David A. Carrillo, executive director of the California Constitution Center at Berkeley Law, said that if Proposition 50 passes, he expects a barrage of \u201csee what sticks\u201d lawsuits raising California constitutional claims. They stand little chance of success, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters created the redistricting commission,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat the voters created they can change or abolish.\u201d<\/p>\n

Attorneys might also bring racial discrimination claims in federal court alleging California lawmakers used partisan affiliation as a pretext for race in drawing the maps to disenfranchise one racial group or another, Carrillo said. Under current law, he said, such claims are very fact-dependent.<\/p>\n

Attorneys are already poised to file complaints if the referendum passes.<\/p>\n

Mark Meuser, a conservative attorney who filed a state complaint this summer seeking to block Proposition 50, said he is ready to file a federal lawsuit on the grounds that the new maps violate the Equal Protection Clause in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe’re saying that race was a predominant factor in drawing the lines,\u201d Meuser said. \u201cWhen race is a predominant factor in drawing the lines without a compelling interest, strict scrutiny will mandate the maps be stricken.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some legal experts believe that would be a tricky case to prove.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt sure seems like the new map was oriented predominantly around politics, not race,\u201d Levitt argued. \u201cAnd though they\u2019d be saying that race was a predominant factor in drawing the lines, that\u2019s very, very, very different from proving it. That\u2019s an uphill mountain to climb on these facts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some experts think the new maps are unlikely to raise strong Voting Rights Act challenges.<\/p>\n

Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California who specializes in elections, said the new districts appeared to have been carefully carved to preserve Latino- or Black-majority districts.<\/p>\n

A successful challenge is possible, McGhee said, noting there are always novel legal arguments. \u201cIt\u2019s just the big ones that you would think about that are the most obvious and the most traditional are pretty closed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Supreme Court\u00a0looms large<\/p>\n

Ultimately, legal experts agree the fate of California maps \u2014 and other maps in Texas and across the nation \u2014 would depend on the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on a redistricting case from Louisiana.<\/p>\n

Last month, conservative Supreme Court justices suggested in a hearing<\/a> that they were considering reining in a key part of the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act that prohibits voting practices or procedures that discriminate on the basis of race, color, or membership in a language minority group.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhatever happens with Proposition 50 \u2014 pass or fail \u2014 almost doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things,\u201d Carrillo said, noting that the Supreme Court could use the Louisiana case to strike Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. “There’s a big litigation storm coming in almost any scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n

Levitt agreed that the Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which could come any time between now and June, could change current law. But he stressed it is impossible to predict how broad the ruling could be.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhether that leaves any of California\u2019s districts vulnerable \u2014 either in the current map or in the map if Prop. 50 passes \u2014 depends entirely on what Scotus says,\u201d Levitt argued. \u201cThere are only nine people who know what they\u2019ll actually say, and there are a lot of possibilities, some of which might affect California\u2019s map pretty substantially, and some of which are unlikely to affect California\u2019s map at all.\u201d<\/p>\n

Will Congress intervene?<\/p>\n

As the redistricting battle spreads across the country and Democratic and Republican states look to follow Texas and California, Democrats could ultimately end up at a disadvantage. If the overall tilt favors Republicans, Democrats would have to win more than 50% of the vote to get a majority of seats.<\/p>\n

Congress has the power to block partisan gerrymandering in congressional map drawing. But attempts so far to pass redistricting reform have been unsuccessful.<\/p>\n

In 2022, the House passed the Freedom to Vote Act<\/a>, which would have prohibited mid-decade redistricting and blocked partisan gerrymandering of congressional maps. But Republicans were able to block the bill in the Senate<\/a>, even though it had majority support, due to that chamber\u2019s filibuster rules.<\/p>\n

Another option is a narrower bill proposed this summer by Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who represents parts of the Sacramento suburbs and Lake Tahoe and could lose his seat if Proposition 50 passes. Kiley\u2019s bill, along with similar legislation introduced by California Democratic representatives, would ban mid-decade redistricting.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat would be the cleanest way of addressing this particular scenario we’re in right now, because all of these new plans that have been drawn would become null and void,\u201d McGhee said.<\/p>\n

But in a heavily deadlocked Congress, Kiley\u2019s bill has little prospect of moving.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt may have to get worse before it gets better,” Hasen said.<\/p>\n

If the redistricting war doesn’t get resolved, Hasen said, there will be a continued race to the bottom, particularly if the Supreme Court weakens or strikes down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.<\/p>\n

Another scenario, Hasen argued, is Democrats regain control of Congress and the presidency, overcome the filibuster rule and pass redistricting reform.<\/p>\n

If that doesn’t happen, Levitt said, the ultimate power rests with the people.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we want to tell our representatives that we’re sick of this, we can,\u201d Levitt said. \u201cThere’s a lot that’s competing for voters\u2019 attention. But that doesn’t mean that we don’t have agency here.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. <\/a><\/p>\n

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Six years ago, when the U.S. Supreme Court upheld highly partisan state election maps in North Carolina and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":33352,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,24109,7337,4061,24110,4489,1361,9268,1748,24111,2214,24029],"class_list":{"0":"post-33351","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-california","8":"tag-california","9":"tag-california-headlines","10":"tag-california-news","11":"tag-elena-kagan","12":"tag-federal-court","13":"tag-justin-levitt","14":"tag-partisan-gerrymandering","15":"tag-proposition","16":"tag-proposition-50","17":"tag-redistricting-commission","18":"tag-republicans","19":"tag-richard-l-hasen","20":"tag-supreme-court","21":"tag-texas-republicans"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}