{"id":336617,"date":"2026-05-28T22:53:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T22:53:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/336617\/"},"modified":"2026-05-28T22:53:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T22:53:26","slug":"central-valley-ca-weather-forecast-rain-thunder-and-heat-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/336617\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Valley CA weather forecast: Rain, thunder and heat risks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weather across the Central Valley has taken a dramatic turn in recent days, shifting from near triple-digit heat<\/a> to thunderstorms<\/a>.<\/p>\n

After a recent bout of hot weather, an \u201cunsettled weather<\/a>\u201d pattern has moved into the region, bringing \u201cdangerous lightning, small hail, brief heavy rainfall<\/a> (and) gusty erratic winds\u201d to the Central Valley, including Fresno and Merced.<\/p>\n

\u201cA low-pressure system moving across California is causing the stormy weather<\/a>,\u201d the National Weather Service told The Sacramento Bee.<\/p>\n

How long will stormy conditions last?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what Central Valley residents can expect in the days ahead:<\/p>\n

\"Rain Rain can be seen on Highway 41 in Fresno, California on Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. ANTHONY GALAVIZ agalaviz@fresnobee.com How long will it rain in the Central Valley?<\/p>\n

According to the National Weather Service, rain chances are expected to taper off Friday, May 29, with warmer and drier weather gradually returning<\/a> to the Valley through the weekend and into next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe cutoff low will be situated over Central California until Friday<\/a> morning,\u201d the National Weather Service said.<\/p>\n

As a result, there\u2019s a 10% to $15 chance of thunderstorms<\/a> across the Central Valley on Thursday, while Sierra Nevada foothills and peaks have a 15% to 30% chance of thunderstorms into the weekend.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the mountains, there will be lingering shower and thunderstorm chances<\/a> through the weekend,\u201d the National Weather Service said.<\/p>\n

The Sierra Nevada can also expect snowfall<\/a> above 7,000 feet, with amounts ranging from an inch to more than 4 inches in the highest elevations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe hot and dry weather returns<\/a> after this system passes,\u201d the weather agency said.<\/p>\n

Could El Ni\u00f1o affect summer weather in California?<\/p>\n

There is about an 80% chance that an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern could develop<\/a> this summer.<\/p>\n

Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, previously told The Bee that El Ni\u00f1o usually has limited effects on California weather during the summer months.<\/p>\n

\u201cSignificant impacts of an El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> are more likely in autumn and winter, when El Ni\u00f1o years are more likely to experience increased precipitation and cooler temperatures in the south, while less-than-average precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures are more likely in the north,\u201d Collins said.<\/p>\n

Meteorologists also said monsoon moisture from the desert could bring additional thunderstorms later this summer.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring the summer, we can still have systems moving through or a push of monsoonal moisture,\u201d the National Weather Service said.<\/p>\n

Are more California storms possible this summer?<\/p>\n

While widespread summer storms are less common in California, the National Weather Service said, they are \u201cnot all that uncommon.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Climate Prediction Center\u2019s seasonal precipitation outlook<\/a> currently shows \u201cequal chances\u201d of above-normal, near-normal or below-normal precipitation levels for June, July and August.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe typically don\u2019t receive much precipitation across the state during those months but can see periods of mountain showers and thunderstorms<\/a> if enough monsoon moisture pushes north,\u201d Courtney Carpenter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.<\/p>\n

Carpenter said meteorologists will continue monitoring for monsoon moisture moving into the Sierra Nevada.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese thunderstorms can bring heavy rainfall<\/a> and potential flooding issues with them, but sometimes lack moisture and bring dry lightning, which can cause potential wildfire starts,\u201d Carpenter said.<\/p>\n

\"Traffic Traffic travels south on Freeway 41 south of Avenue 15 in Madera County as a heavy downpour hits the area on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026. CRAIG KOHLRUSS ckohlruss@fresnobee.com What\u2019s next for Central Valley weather?<\/p>\n

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures for early June<\/a>, along with equal chances for wetter or drier conditions.<\/p>\n

\u201cTemperatures to begin to increase<\/a> on Friday and into the weekend as ridging takes place,\u201d the National Weather Service said.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s in the weather forecast for Fresno?<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service\u2019s current seven-day weather forecast for Fresno<\/a> shows a slight chance of rain and cooler temperatures before heat returns to the region next week.<\/p>\n

There was a 30% chance of showers on Thursday, May 28, with winds around 5 mph. Temperatures were expected to reach a high near 66 degrees and an overnight low around 53 degrees.<\/p>\n

By Friday, skies are expected to gradually clear, with sunshine returning and temperatures warming slightly. Friday\u2019s high is forecast to near 77 degrees, with a low around 57.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service said minor heat risk is expected<\/a> this weekend, with conditions ramping up to a moderate heat risk heading into next week.<\/p>\n

Temperatures will heat up on Saturday, with a high near 84 and a low around 60.<\/p>\n

Sunday will see a high near 89 and a low of about 63.<\/p>\n

By next week, Fresno can expect high temperatures<\/a> climbing into the mid-90s.<\/p>\n

How long will rain showers last in Merced?<\/p>\n

The latest weather forecast for Merced<\/a> looks similar, with a slight chance of rain Thursday followed by a warming trend through the weekend.<\/p>\n

There was a 70% chance of showers on Thursday, with winds of 5 to 10 mph, the National Weather Service said.<\/p>\n

Temperatures were expected to top out near 70 degrees, while the low could dip to about 52.<\/p>\n

On Friday, Merced-area residents can expect \u201cmostly clear\u201d skies, the weather service said. The high will near 77 and the low will be around 53.<\/p>\n

Minor heat risk is expected<\/a> this weekend, with moderate heat possible early next week, according to the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n

Temperatures are forecast to climb near 84 degrees on Saturday and 89 on Sunday, with highs potentially reaching the mid-90s by Monday, June 1.<\/p>\n

Loading\u2026<\/p>\n

Related Stories from Fresno Bee<\/p>\n


\n \"Profile
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Angela Rodriguez<\/a><\/p>\n

The Modesto Bee<\/p>\n

Angela Rodriguez is a service journalism reporter for The Bee. She is a graduate of Sacramento State with a bachelor\u2019s degree in journalism. During her time there, she worked on the State Hornet covering arts and entertainment.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Weather across the Central Valley has taken a dramatic turn in recent days, shifting from near triple-digit heat…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":336618,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[112,114,113],"class_list":["post-336617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fresno","tag-fresno","tag-fresno-headlines","tag-fresno-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=336617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/336617\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/336618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=336617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=336617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=336617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}