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Candidates in California’s gubernatorial race, from left, Matt Mahan, Xavier Becerra, Chad Bianco, Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter look on during a debate Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in San Francisco.<\/p>\n
Jason Henry\/Associated Press<\/p>\n
Just a few days before the deadline to submit their ballots, plenty of Californians remain stuck<\/a> on whom to vote for, perhaps because they aren\u2019t pleased<\/a> with their eight major-party options.<\/p>\n Some are undoubtedly waiting to find out: Who\u2019s the least-offensive candidate (to me) the polls actually say has a chance?<\/p>\n If that\u2019s you, now is the time to pay heed. Three of the best pollsters of California (the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies<\/a>, the Public Policy Institute of California<\/a> and Emerson College Polling<\/a>) are releasing their final polls this week.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n PPIC\u2019s is already out<\/a>. The other two are expected over the next several days.<\/p>\n PPIC finds Becerra surging \u2026<\/p>\n After the fall of former Rep. Eric Swalwell amid accusations<\/a> of sexual assault, the race entered a volatile period: At first, activist and investor Tom Steyer appeared to be the most formidable candidate standing. Rep. Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, both trailing, were looking for openings (including by snagging endorsements<\/a>).<\/p>\n San Francisco Chronicle Logo<\/p>\n Make us a Preferred Source to get more of our news when you search.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Add Preferred Source<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n But all of a sudden, an also-ran began to surge: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. PPIC\u2019s final poll has him three points ahead of Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton, and eight points ahead of Steyer.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n By contrast, Porter and Mahan remain stuck in the low double or high single digits.<\/p>\n That slight but significant edge has translated to a much more lopsided lead on another metric: betting odds on markets like Kalshi<\/a> and Polymarket<\/a>. On both platforms, ordinary people are putting their money where their mouth is, yielding a two-thirds probability that Becerra advances and wins the November race.<\/p>\n Betting markets aren\u2019t perfect \u2014 Sacramento political strategist Paul Mitchell warns they reflect the priors of \u201ccrypto bros,\u201d as well as people who are willing to lose money to move the odds \u2014 but they have lately proven<\/a> prescient.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u2026 But the Berkeley poll is worth waiting for<\/p>\n If you\u2019re not a Becerra fan and worried your candidate is toast, you might want to wait for one more data point: the Berkeley IGS poll, due in the next couple days.<\/p>\n For one thing, PPIC\u2019s poll was fielded all the way back from May 14 to 18. In that time, some supporters of lower-polling candidates may have shifted allegiance strategically. In theory, if more Porter and Mahan fans break for Steyer than Becerra, that could put him over the top.<\/p>\n That\u2019s exactly what the Steyer campaign claims is happening. \u201cCalifornia primaries have a clear history of late movement,\u201d the campaign wrote in a press release, \u201cwhich PPIC has missed.\u201d If so, Berkeley IGS should capture it: They were in the field more recently.<\/p>\n There\u2019s also IGS\u2019s sterling reputation.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cThe best poll is the Berkeley poll. It\u2019s a triple-A plus plus plus poll,\u201d said Mitchell, citing their sophisticated methods for reaching, segmenting and communicating with voters.<\/p>\n Why is Becerra doing so well?<\/p>\n Even if Berkeley finds a better result for Steyer (or any other candidate), it\u2019s unlikely to find Becerra in a weak position.<\/p>\n How did Becerra come in from behind? PPIC lead pollster Mark Baldassare thinks it comes down to two questions his outfit asks voters: What is the most important problem in the U.S.? And what\u2019s the most important in California?<\/p>\n \u201cIn the U.S., it\u2019s threats to democracy. In California, it\u2019s the cost of living,\u201d said Baldassare.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The theory goes that voters who prioritized the first issue \u2014 the Trump administration\u2019s erosion of democratic norms \u2014 found an early champion in Swalwell, who staked his political identity on vocal opposition to Trump. After all, that pitch is tried and true.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the 2024 election, what was it about Adam Schiff?\u201d said Baldassare. \u201cWell, he took on Trump, and then he was elected senator.\u201d<\/p>\n With Swalwell out of the picture, it may not have been clear to Trump-driven voters that they\u2019d find what they wanted in Steyer, Porter, Mahan or the others, who either had baggage of their own or emphasized more local issues. Enter Becerra, who\u2019s emphasized his battles with Trump as California\u2019s attorney general.<\/p>\n Also, many voters may more easily see themselves in Becerra, who frequently touts his humble beginnings. Taken together, said Republican political strategist Mike Madrid, those qualities may have endeared him to voters in what a Chronicle analysis<\/a> identified as Urban Working Class areas \u2014 who are mostly Hispanic.<\/p>\n What does this mean for your choice?<\/p>\n If you\u2019re a Republican who wants a real choice in November, your choice appears clear. Hilton is likely the only candidate with a chance of making the general.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re a Democrat, you know what to do if you\u2019re a fan of Becerra or Steyer. You\u2019re hoping that your support will push your candidate into the top two.<\/p>\n The choice is more awkward for fans of Mahan, Porter or another candidate. You may find yourself wanting to vote for the lesser of two evils \u2014 especially if you think Steyer, who looks behind, is preferable to Becerra, who looks ahead.<\/p>\n