{"id":338533,"date":"2026-05-30T02:42:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T02:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/338533\/"},"modified":"2026-05-30T02:42:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T02:42:13","slug":"ca-48-could-determine-control-of-congress-will-dems-blow-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/338533\/","title":{"rendered":"CA-48 could determine control of Congress. Will Dems blow it?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Paul Mitchell, a veteran redistricting specialist at a California voter data firm, was in the middle of packing for a European trip when he got the call: Time to draw the map. It was late July 2025 and, after weeks of will-he-or-won\u2019t-he speculation, Gov. Gavin Newsom was moving ahead with his plans to <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofsandiego.com\/politics\/2025\/11\/05\/voters-in-san-diego-and-across-state-overwhelmingly-approve-prop-50\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reconfigure California\u2019s congressional districts<\/a> \u2014 and Mitchell was the person with the expertise to do it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With a new California map getting the green light, Mitchell\u2019s other maps \u2014 \u201cI\u2019m a cyclist, so we had planned it, and I had purposefully put all the nice little rides that I wanted to do,\u201d he told me recently \u2014 got shelved. He drove his wife and daughter to the airport and, instead of exploring London, Paris, Switzerland and Italy, he spent the next two weeks studying towns like Fallbrook, San Marcos and Temecula. His mandate: Counter the redistricting that could lead to five additional GOP House seats in Texas by creating five new Democratic seats in California.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As soon as he got back from the airport, the calls began. Could Democratic Rep. Mike Levin on the coast of northern San Diego County and southern Orange County spare a few votes? Would Palm Springs Democrats be OK with getting attached to northeastern San Diego County? Would incumbent Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert \u2014 who represented different districts in Riverside County \u2014 tear themselves apart in an unexpected primary?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI was just working on Zooms every day from like 5 in the morning till midnight,\u201d he told me. He was running on adrenaline, Diet Coke and chicken nuggets. \u201cAnd at some point I ran out of Diet Coke.\u201d When he went to pick up his family two weeks later, the Tesla battery was dead. He hadn\u2019t left the house.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After he finally got the battery charged, he passed the redistricting baton to his wife, Jodi Hicks, who, as CEO of the Planned Parenthood affiliates in California, would join Newsom in promoting the redistricting effort over the next couple of months. \u201cMy job was done,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd her job started.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mitchell was hired for explicitly partisan purposes, yet he did not, he says, want to \u201crip the state to pieces.\u201d And even his opponents conceded he could have gone further. Amy Thoma Tan, who served as a spokesperson for the anti-redistricting group Protect Voters First \u2014 funded by the wealthy Republican Charles Munger Jr. \u2014 recalled that she and her allies thought they\u2019d get more of a reach from Mitchell.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe were greatly anticipating the maps \u2026 and when we got the maps, we opened them and were like, \u2018Hmm, not ideal, but there\u2019s nothing crazy in these maps. There\u2019s still a partisan gerrymander, but it\u2019s not so absurd that we can have some crazy press conference and say: Look at this horrible thing that he did,\u2019\u201d she said during a February panel featuring Mitchell and some of his critics at the University of Southern California, months after voters had approved the new maps. Mitchell, she said, had drawn the maps \u201cwith integrity.\u201d (\u201cThat\u2019s the best compliment that I\u2019ve received on the redistricting plans to date,\u201d he told me.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now the question will be whether Mitchell had too much integrity or just the right amount. Did he do enough to deliver Democrats the five seats they want to gain? Or did he cut things too close?<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The answers, and perhaps even the balance of power in the entire U.S. House, could boil down to the results in California\u2019s 48th Congressional District, one of the swingiest of the districts that Mitchell aimed to flip to the Democrats. The old version of this southern California district was represented by longtime Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who won reelection by nearly 20 percentage points in 2024. Trump carried the district that year by more than 10 points. When Mitchell redrew the lines, he cut off Republican-leaning cities east of San Diego and looped in heavily Democratic Palm Springs, creating a district that would have voted in favor of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024. Fifty-six percent of the new district favored the redistricting plan when it went before California voters in the fall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Issa decided \u2014 on March 6, the last day of the filing period \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofsandiego.com\/politics\/2026\/03\/06\/desmond-issa-48th-district-reelection-retirement\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">not to seek reelection<\/a>, but even on his way out, he insisted that the district remained winnable for Republicans. \u201cOur polling was unmistakable: we would win this race,\u201d he said in his retirement statement. (Messages to Issa\u2019s communications manager and former campaign manager went unreturned.) His assertion was far from implausible: Though the district would have gone narrowly for Harris at the presidential level, Newsom would have lost here by about 2 percentage points in 2022, according to Mitchell\u2019s firm, Political Data Inc.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After Issa dropped out, The Cook Political Report <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofsandiego.com\/politics\/2026\/04\/03\/ca-48-issa-desmond-vonwilpert-campa-najjar\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">changed its designation of the district from \u201ctoss up\u201d to \u201clean Democrat.\u201d<\/a> Before Issa bailed, Erin Covey \u2014 The Cook Political Report\u2019s lead House expert \u2014 told me she considered the seat \u201cone of the Democrats\u2019 best pick-up opportunities in the country, but, you know, it\u2019s certainly not a given.\u201d Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, told me, \u201cThis is still a district where a well-funded Republican with name recognition has a fighter\u2019s chance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, with less than a week to go before primary ballots are counted, the district feels unsettled. After dropping out, Issa endorsed Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor and a former mayor of San Marcos. The most plausible Democratic contenders are Ammar Campa-Najjar, 37, a serial local candidate who is the boyfriend of neighboring Rep. Sara Jacobs and is zero for three in his campaigns; Marni von Wilpert, 43, a San Diego City Council member; and Brandon Riker, 39, an economist and investor based in Palm Springs. None received enough support from state party delegates to win the party\u2019s endorsement, and they are currently splitting the vote with a half-dozen other Democrats. That\u2019s a problem, because in California\u2019s nonpartisan primary system, it would be possible for two Republicans to finish first and second on June 2 and lock all the Democrats out of the general election \u2014 exactly the scenario raised by a (surprising) mid-April <a href=\"https:\/\/www.surveyusa.com\/client\/PollReport.aspx?g=69867e15-64d4-41d9-841e-5c9fbbd45cd2\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">poll<\/a> from The San Diego Union-Tribune and a local TV station, which found Desmond leading and another Republican, Kevin O\u2019Neil, in second place.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, the head of the San Diego County Democratic Party, told me earlier this year that the party would push lagging Democrats to drop out and throw their support behind one or two of the strongest contenders. But that mostly hasn\u2019t happened. (Only one has dropped out.)\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The district, in short, looks to be up for grabs. It\u2019s a reminder that for all the national stakes of the 2026 election, control of the U.S. House could ultimately come down to a set of highly local, even random, factors: quirky state election rules, the strengths and weaknesses of a collection of imperfect candidates, and the chaos and uncertainty that follows in the wake of rapid-fire redistricting \u2014 conditions that can defy the intentions of even the best mapmakers and the politicians whose interests they serve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">***<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Democrats, it wasn\u2019t supposed to be this hard. Even before the redistricting, the area was undergoing a transformation. High home prices on the coast \u2014 part of Levin\u2019s district \u2014 were pushing Democratic-leaning voters 50 miles east into an area that used to be marked by cows, vineyards and old white folks who went to church on Sunday. Now there are miles of affordable-for-SoCal housing developments. As one Temecula lifer, Bryan Giardinelli \u2014 a graphic designer and photographer who works for a tour company that brings visitors to wine tastings \u2014 put it to me recently, \u201cI consider this area now a better place to be because there are more people who aren\u2019t just like the ones who grew up here.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, before the prospect of redistricting, no Democrat who was serious about winning was going to challenge Issa. Campa-Najjar was not actively on the scene after a surprising loss in a local mayor\u2019s race. Von Wilpert was plotting a California state Senate run. Riker was planning to challenge Calvert in Palm Springs\u2019 old district, the 41st. By the time the new maps passed, the primary was only seven months away.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dan Schnur, an adjunct professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and veteran California public policy expert, told me that, ideally, the local Democratic party and campaign consultants would \u201cspend a great deal of time in advance, meeting with candidates, identifying the strongest alternative [to the incumbent] and discouraging the others. \u2026 Given the speed of the redistricting process, they didn\u2019t have that luxury.\u201d (When asked about the strength of the candidates, neither the San Diego County Democratic Party nor the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expressed concern.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the Union-Tribune poll is right, then the leading Democrat \u2014 trailing O\u2019Neil by one point \u2014 is Campa-Najjar. He is known here among engaged Democrats as a candidate who, in recent years, had either the guts or bad sense to try to win unwinnable congressional elections. He challenged then-Rep. Duncan Hunter in a congressional race in 2018, losing by about 3.4 percentage points in a conservative district. Two years later, he ran for the same seat again \u2014 this time losing to Issa, who had left Congress, then moved districts after Hunter was convicted of stealing campaign funds for personal use. Not all of his races have been long shots, however: In 2022, he ran for mayor of Chula Vista, a city in southern San Diego County where Democrats enjoy a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sdvote.com\/content\/dam\/rov\/en\/reports\/monthly-reg-report.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">massive advantage<\/a> in registered voters. He still lost to a Republican, this time by about 4 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timesofsandiego.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/A022C221_260414CZ_200DM.MXF_.13_53_13_21.Still002-scaled.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"780\" height=\"439\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/A022C221_260414CZ_200DM.MXF_.13_53_13_21.Still002.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379903\"  \/><\/a>Ammar Campa-Najjar on the San Diego Politics Show (Photo by Michael Sweeney\/ San Diego Politics Show)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One problem for Campa-Najjar is that, in the past, he has taken a number of conservative positions, calling himself a \u201cmaverick\u201d among Democrats. In 2020, for instance, he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sandiegouniontribune.com\/2026\/04\/24\/ammar-campa-najjar-has-a-lot-of-explaining-to-do\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hedged<\/a> about whether he would vote for Biden or Trump. He also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.notus.org\/2026-election\/ammar-campa-najjar-midterm-democrats\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>, \u201cI don\u2019t believe in banning so-called \u2018assault weapons,\u2019\u201d adding, \u201cThat\u2019s a term that was coined by liberals who know nothing about guns.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This time, Campa-Najjar is running as a much more conventional Democrat. When I spoke to him in mid-March, he defended the way his views have evolved. \u201cWhen you\u2019re trying to be a representative,\u201d he said, \u201cyou have to represent the community you\u2019re seeking to represent as honestly as possible and be a vessel for what the hopes and dreams and fears of that community is. And my campaigns have always been built on three phases \u2014 listening, learning and meeting. And, you know, building the broadest coalition.\u201d He continued, \u201cMy values have always been the same. Maybe the approach has varied based on the district.\u201d The creation of a new 48th District, he said, permitted him to run without any tension. \u201cI told myself I would only run if it was possible for me to be fully myself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To Campa-Najjar, his previous congressional campaigns are an asset, not a drawback. He said he \u201cput this district in play when no one believed it,\u201d adding, \u201cThere\u2019s only one candidate running for Congress on our side who\u2019s gotten a single [congressional] vote in this district.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I asked him to talk about what he\u2019s learned as Jacobs, his girlfriend, has navigated her first term in Congress; what are their conversations like at the end of a hectic week of campaigning and lawmaking? He declined, saying, \u201cI think this [would] make for interesting reading, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s even in the top 10 issues that voters care about.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite Campa-Najjar\u2019s relationship with a sitting member of Congress, von Wilpert is the preferred candidate of much of the Democratic establishment, having captured 18 of 33 votes at the party\u2019s state endorsing conference \u2014 a statement of strength, though still short of the 60% required to gain an endorsement. A former deputy city attorney, she touts her work on the city council, her advocacy for labor, her support for LGBTQ+ rights and her push for a new terminal at the San Diego International Airport via her position on the Airport Authority board.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early April found von Wilpert standing at a podium at a Shell gas station in Escondido, flanked by oil barrels wrangled by campaign assistants and health-care workers who recently had their union ratified. Escondido is one of the population centers in northern San Diego County that is vital for Democrats. Von Wilpert discussed the high cost of commuting for nurses and medical assistants who work at hospitals in San Diego County \u2014 her slam-dunk voters. \u201cDonald Trump can find money for bombs but not groceries,\u201d she said. A gallon of regular was $5.79 that day. Pointing to the prices, she criticized Desmond for recent comments in which he had seemed to dismiss the spike in gas prices caused by the Iran war. As she spoke, passing cars honked their approval when they saw the \u201cMarni von Wilpert \u2014 Take Back Congress\u201d signs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I talked to her on the sidewalk after her appearance, hoping to get a chance to see her in a less-scripted moment. A 20-minute phone call in March had elicited mainly campaign talking points. This day was not much better.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timesofsandiego.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Thomas-Murphy-City-Council-Councilmember-50.jpg?ssl=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"780\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Thomas-Murphy-City-Council-Councilmember-50.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379005\"  \/><\/a>Councilmember Marni Von Wilpert at a City Council meeting reviewing Mayor Todd Gloria\u2019s proposed budget for the next fiscal year on April 20, 2026. (Photo by Thomas Murphy\/Times of San Diego)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI am the only one running who\u2019s won a major election and flipped the district red to blue,\u201d von Wilpert said. (Her city council area was once conservative.) \u201cMy [Democratic] opponents have run multiple times and lost every election they\u2019ve been in. We cannot bet on someone who\u2019s never won before to be our racehorse against the Republican Party. I actually have results to stand on. I don\u2019t have to promise people what I might do in the future. I can show them what I have done.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIt\u2019s all kind of a blur,\u201d von Wilpert consultant Dan Rottenstreich told me during a phone call a couple weeks later, speaking about the campaign timeline that had unfolded after Mitchell released his maps. The strategist struggled to recall a story that could add some color to what so far has been a disciplined, but arguably bland, campaign. Indeed, those qualities could be von Wilpert\u2019s greatest weakness or selling point, depending on how you look at it. \u201cYou want the least-risky choice, the Democrat with the broadest appeal,\u201d longtime Democratic Rep. Mark Takano, whose 39th District borders the new 48th and who has endorsed von Wilpert, told me. \u201cThe 48th district is not a slam-dunk district. I think this guy, Supervisor Desmond, has shown himself to be able to win a local seat that leans Democratic. \u2026 He hails from a nonpartisan sort of level of government. And that kind of Republican could be formidable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the campaign has entered its final stage, much of von Wilpert\u2019s strategy has shifted away from countering Desmond. Instead, she and Rottenstreich are making sure voters and journalists know about Campa-Najjar\u2019s inconsistencies. A recent campaign press release was titled, \u201cAmmar Campa-Najjar will be whoever you want him to be,\u201d and called out a \u201ccareer-long pattern of deception.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As is the case in other intra-Democratic fights around the country, Israel has become an issue. The national group Democratic Majority for Israel has endorsed von Wilpert and is spending <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fec.gov\/data\/independent-expenditures\/?data_type=efiling&amp;candidate_search=ammar+campa+najjar&amp;is_notice=true&amp;most_recent=true\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$2 million<\/a> running ads attacking Campa-Najjar, who is Palestinian on his father\u2019s side.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timesofsandiego.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-29-at-9.56.13-AM.png?ssl=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"780\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-29-at-9.56.13-AM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-385335\"  \/><\/a>Brandon Riker on the San Diego Politics Show (Photo courtesy of Michael Sweeney\/ San Diego Politics Show)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet even with all the endorsements, von Wilpert was barely ahead of Palm Springs investor Riker in the Union-Tribune poll. Riker is the main donor to his own campaign, to the tune of nearly $900,000, and isn\u2019t shy about discussing his family\u2019s wealth. \u201cI come from a family where both myself and my parents have rung the bell on the New York Stock Exchange,\u201d he told me during an early spring call.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He touts his economics degree every chance he gets and says Congress has enough lawyers. He wants to cut payroll taxes on the first $50,000 of income and also pay for social programs by more aggressively taxing stock market gains made by the wealthy. When we spoke, he told a story about a Trump voter he met in 2024 while door-knocking for Harris. \u201cI said, \u2018Why?\u2019\u201d he recalled, \u201cand she said, \u2018It\u2019s pretty simple. [The Democratic Party] is offering me hypothetical money, $25,000 \u2014 if I can buy a home, I get a tax credit. But I can\u2019t afford my rent, so I\u2019ll never buy a home. $5,000 for a childhood first year tax credit, but I have a son, he\u2019s three, I can\u2019t afford him, I\u2019m not going to have another. And Donald Trump said, \u2018No tax on tips.\u2019\u201d To Riker, the key for Democrats is to help working-class voters and \u201csolve the economy that is so fundamentally broken.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">***<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In mid-April, I attended the California Republican Party Convention at a San Diego Sheraton. By that point, I had been trying to get Desmond to talk to me for a month. I figured I would head over to the harborside hotel, in the hopes of talking a GOP communications operative into wrangling the candidate for me.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After I had parked in a lot across from the hotel, I was walking back to my spot to put my ticket on the dash \u2014 and who should I stumble upon but Jim Desmond. He was tucking his shirttail into the slacks of his suit while walking to the kiosk. Congressional candidates, they\u2019re just like us: They have to fork over a little cash for parking. (At $5 for 12 hours, the parking rate was a steal in a city where rising parking costs are a major pain point.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I asked Desmond if we could chat for five minutes while walking to the hotel. \u201cI\u2019m just waiting to find out who my opponent will be,\u201d he said before saying \u201csorry\u201d and walking back to put his receipt on the dashboard.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Later, inside the convention, I met up with Desmond again. He was talking with Christian Martinez, a National Republican Congressional Committee press secretary who was shepherding him to a meeting. The candidate grumbled a bit about my approach in the parking lot and, in spite of Martinez\u2019s encouragement, reiterated that he wasn\u2019t interested in speaking with me.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This media aversion is of a piece with Desmond\u2019s overall approach: He has run one of the most low-key campaigns imaginable for such a high-stakes seat. Maybe that strategy will backfire in the end, but right now, it looks like an expression of confidence: He has a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116404449008520677\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Complete and Total Endorsement<\/a>\u201d from President Trump and is basically guaranteed to make it through the first round of voting, so he seems content to sit back and watch the Democrats tear themselves apart.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Desmond, 70, retired from a 30-year career as a commercial airline pilot in 2020. At that point, he was already a year into his first term as a San Diego County supervisor and had served for 12 years in the part-time role of mayor of San Marcos, a city of 90,000 about 30 miles north of San Diego. It\u2019s a place with many of the types of voters von Wilpert was trying to appeal to at her press conference \u2014 shift workers who commute to jobs closer to San Diego or north into Orange County.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/timesofsandiego.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Jim-Desmond-640.jpg?ssl=1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Jim-Desmond-640.jpg\" alt=\"County Supervisor Jim Desmond.\" class=\"wp-image-127174\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.7778115369590695;width:801px;height:auto\"  \/><\/a>County Supervisor Jim Desmond. (File photo by Chris Stone)<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After his time as mayor, Desmond moved about 20 minutes west, into a golf course community in the hills above Oceanside. Until this year, that home was in the 49th District, where he had been planning to challenge Levin. Mitchell\u2019s map relocated him into the 48th \u2014 and when he switched races upon Issa\u2019s retirement announcement, he wanted voters to know he wasn\u2019t a carpetbagger. \u201cPoliticians in Sacramento redrew the lines and moved me into the new district,\u201d he wrote. \u201cBut they can\u2019t redraw my roots.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Throughout March and into April, he kept up his county supervisor work \u2014 touting a proposal to make first-time home ownership more attainable, congratulating local volunteers on their good deeds. The only thing he gave Democrats to latch onto came in a March 9 interview with the streaming platform Real America\u2019s Voice, in which he spoke about the Iran war: \u201cNo pain, no gain. It\u2019s unfortunate the oil prices are going up, but I do believe this is a spike,\u201d he said. \u201cOil prices will come down again.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Democratic candidates pounced. Campa-Najjar wrote, \u201cSide with Trump and his warmongers all you want. You\u2019re for them, I\u2019m for the working people of #CA48.\u201d Von Wilpert built her Shell station press conference around the statement.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The gas slipup aside, Desmond seems to be centering his campaign on what he calls \u201ckitchen table\u201d issues \u2014 affordable housing, reducing inflation, lowering taxes, securing the border. He has more than $1 million in his war chest, an amount that places him on about the same footing as the other plausible candidates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That list of plausible candidates appeared to include no Republicans besides Desmond \u2014 until, that is, the Union-Tribune poll found Republican Kevin O\u2019Neil in second place with 13 percent. O\u2019Neil, a tech entrepreneur, has received $0 in campaign contributions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When I spoke to him on the phone, O\u2019Neil said he wasn\u2019t prepared for the recent attention, but he is not surprised that his anti-establishment, anti-AI platform is resonating. He entered the race before Issa dropped out; his main reason for running is that he despises the congressman, whom he blames for failing to help his mother \u2014 a military spouse \u2014 receive her survivor benefits when his father died. He\u2019s running as a Republican mostly because of his anti-abortion views. \u201cI\u2019m encouraged [about the polling] because most of the people I talked to who are part of the establishment said, \u2018Don\u2019t even bother,\u2019\u201d he recalled. \u201cI basically said to them, \u2018God\u2019s in control and he\u2019ll decide.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to his website, he wants to \u201clower the cost of living,\u201d \u201crestore accountability,\u201d protect \u201cdigital liberty\u201d and \u201csupport military families.\u201d Christian Zionism also looms large on his site, where he proclaims his \u201csupport for Israel\u201d while identifying himself as \u201ca Christian who had the good news of Jesus shared with me by a member of the remnant of Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf I get into Congress,\u201d he told me, \u201cI\u2019m going to make sure that politicians and the government are held accountable for crimes.\u201d His presence in second place is either an indication of a deeply flawed poll or a signal that the Democrats have messed up in a big way.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">***<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten months on from his map-making bender, Paul Mitchell believes the raw numbers in the district he drew will win out, and whichever Democrat advances to November will prevail. He describes the possibility of a Democratic lockout on June 2 as \u201ca disaster,\u201d but he thinks it\u2019s unlikely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, he could have drawn things differently, but there were always going to be trade-offs. \u201cCould you have made the district, you know, 3 points more Democratic?\u201d he told me. \u201cYeah, you could have done that. But if you did that, would you be creating ripple effects that would cause other really gross things to happen around the state?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Plus, mapmakers are not, in the end, all powerful \u2014 something perhaps worth remembering as politicians continue to redraw congressional boundaries across the country. Redistricting can create the conditions that favor one party or another, but it can\u2019t control for the vagaries of actual campaigns. And in close districts, those factors can make all the difference. \u201cThis package we put together was a strong response to Texas,\u201d Mitchell said, \u201cbut how these districts play out, it\u2019s not up to me. There are theories as to which candidates might be best for any of these seats, and I\u2019m absolutely 100% uninvolved.\u201d He added, \u201cI understand where my job ends. \u2026 I just let the chips fall, basically.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dan Friedell is a <a href=\"https:\/\/danfriedell.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">writer and producer in San Diego<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Paul Mitchell, a veteran redistricting specialist at a California voter data firm, was in the middle of packing&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":338534,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[43601,107797,61593,1752,7668,35072,117159,76355,74,76,75],"class_list":["post-338533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-diego","tag-ammar-campa-najjar","tag-brandon-riker","tag-ca-48","tag-congress","tag-darrell-issa","tag-election-2026","tag-jim-desmond","tag-marni-von-wilpert","tag-san-diego","tag-san-diego-headlines","tag-san-diego-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=338533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/338533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/338534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=338533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=338533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=338533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}