{"id":340236,"date":"2026-05-31T13:57:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T13:57:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/340236\/"},"modified":"2026-05-31T13:57:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T13:57:13","slug":"this-is-how-the-l-a-mayors-race-will-end-up-trust-me-i-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/340236\/","title":{"rendered":"This is how the L.A. mayor’s race will end up. Trust me, I know"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Faced with a big story, journalists like me love to offer our readers something we call \u201csweep.\u201d It\u2019s the insights about what might happen next and context that put the events in historical perspective that, we hope at least, you will share on social media, repeat with deep wisdom at weekend barbecues and compel you to hit that subscribe button.<\/p>\n

But my sweep has been no match for the 2026 L.A. mayor\u2019s race, which repeatedly surprised and confounded me.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a wild ride, and if the latest poll is to be believed, we approach election day with a tight race that could break for any of the three top contenders. <\/p>\n

Consider this a Season 1 recap in advance of Tuesday\u2019s finale (and remember, Season 2 begins Wednesday). <\/p>\n

\"Mayor <\/p>\n

Mayor Karen Bass mingles at a day of community healing in 2025.<\/p>\n

(Christina House \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Episode 1: Who will take her on?<\/p>\n

A year ago, Karen Bass <\/a>seemed badly hurt<\/a> and perhaps even mortally wounded. The unprecedented destruction of the January firestorm, combined with the growing criticism of City Hall\u2019s response, <\/a>had combined with perennial dissatisfaction about affordability,<\/a> homelessness and related issues. <\/a> <\/p>\n

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, a Pacific Palisades resident and outspoken critic of Bass, mulled a rematch. <\/a>The powerful left wing of L.A. politics was also strategizing about a challenge. Spencer Pratt, the reality TV star who lost his home in the Palisades fire, threw his hat in the ring, <\/a>but few took it that seriously.<\/p>\n

By early 2026, something strange had happened.<\/a> <\/p>\n

Bass did not garner the band of opponents many expected. Some of it had to do with horrible tragedy<\/a>, some because hopefuls could not see the math working out for them. In the days before the ballot was set, as L.A. Material reported, the bold-faced political names who refused to fight Bass themselves were begging others to do it <\/a>for them.<\/p>\n

\"Nithya <\/p>\n

Nithya Raman in 2020.<\/p>\n

(Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Episode 2: The February surprise<\/p>\n

Hours before the February filing deadline, it was looking like Bass, <\/a>despite everything, might have a clear path to reelection.<\/p>\n

But the night before the deadline, the smartphones of L.A. politicos and journalists exploded with rumors that Los Angeles City Councilwoman Niythia Raman <\/a>was entering, giving Bass a formidable challenge from the left. <\/a> <\/p>\n

The last-minute Raman-Bass showdown was a political earthquake in part because the two had been allies and Raman\u2019s name had appeared on a list of Bass endorsers for reelection. This did not sit well <\/a>with some Democratic activists, with one telling my colleague David Zahniser that it smacked of betrayal and opportunism and is \u201ckind of hard for me to stomach at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

But this was not Raman\u2019s main narrative. The national media compared Raman<\/a> to the hottest politician of the moment, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and her camp was not exactly pushing back on that. Raman had progressive credentials and seemed to many to represent a new generation of leadership.<\/p>\n

\"Spencer <\/p>\n

Spencer Pratt, left, poses with a supporter taking a selfie.<\/p>\n

(Etienne Laurent \/ For The Times)<\/p>\n

Episode 3: The Spencer Pratt Show<\/p>\n

It would take a while for it to be clear that this was not going to be strictly a Bass vs. Raman contest. Few saw the rise of Pratt at first. After all, he was a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. He was the villain on \u201cThe Hills.\u201d He\u2019d never run for office and at first seemed like a one-issue candidate: The fires.<\/p>\n

But Pratt quickly tapped a broader message familiar to viewers of Fox News: That L.A. was in rapid decline thanks to the bankrupt, woke policies of Bass, Raman and the rest of the L.A. establishment. Homeless people overrunning the city. Crime out of control. Liberal governing run amok.<\/p>\n

He offered this critique, and some took notice. But his message really got supercharged<\/a> by clever, slightly crude AI-generated videos <\/a>showing Pratt as the superhero saving L.A. from the villainous Democrats.<\/a> By April, these videos had taken over social media feeds, along with testimonials from some decidedly non-MAGA figures who made <\/a>the case Pratt <\/a>might be worth the risk.<\/a> <\/p>\n

Despite the hype, it was hard to know if Pratt was gaining actual votes or just millions of likes. Then, in May, an Emerson College poll found Pratt in second place,<\/a> behind Bass but ahead of Raman. Suddenly, no one was writing off \u201cThe Hills\u201d guy, even if he still seemed like a long shot.<\/p>\n

The Pratt boom coincided with a shift in the conventional wisdom around Raman and Bass. Raman, it was said, had two weak debate performances<\/a> and was on the ropes. Key progressives, especially on the City Council, were backing Bass instead of her. <\/a>Some pundits said she was struggling<\/a> to run a citywide campaign that appealed to voters outside her lefty Silver Lake base.<\/p>\n

The narrative around Bass was changing too. Sure, she was unpopular. But she was running a disciplined campaign and seemed to have two key groups<\/a> behind her: Labor and Latinos. You could not watch a local TV newscast without seeing that Bass ad showing her standing up to ICE during the Trump immigration sweeps.<\/p>\n

\"A <\/p>\n

A man holds up a sign in support of Mayor Karen Bass.<\/p>\n

(Genaro Molina \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Episode 4: Closing days.<\/p>\n

The race went three weeks without a new poll. By now, Pratt had become a national story, with profiles in places like Vanity Fair <\/a>and the Wall Street Journal.<\/a> Fox News was covering the L.A. mayor\u2019s race<\/a> like it was a presidential election, with Pratt offered up as L.A.\u2019s salvation.<\/p>\n

Then on Thursday, a new U.C. Berkeley\/L.A. Times poll <\/a>scrambled expectations again. It found an incredibly close race: Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22% among likely voters.<\/p>\n

Suddenly, Bass looked vulnerable. No one was writing off Raman anymore. And some whispered about Pratt\u2019s ceiling in deep-blue L.A.<\/p>\n

But there was also the post-poll spin: The polls undercount Pratt\u2019s support because there are a lot of people who don\u2019t want to admit they support him. L.A.\u2019s hatred of Trump will help Bass and Raman on Election Day despite the voter dissatisfaction with City Hall.<\/p>\n

One thing I can predict: When all the votes are counted, I will offer some sweep that subtly suggests I knew it all along.<\/p>\n

You’re reading the Essential California newsletter <\/p>\n

Sign up to start every day with California’s most important stories.<\/p>\n

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The week\u2019s biggest stories \"Xavier <\/a> <\/p>\n

Xavier Becerra, former California attorney general and U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services who\u2019s the front-runner in the race for California governor, speaks to supporters at the UFCW Local 1167 Union Hall in Bloomington on Friday as he barnstorms the state before the June 2 primary election.<\/p>\n

(Genaro Molina \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

California primary electionFire-prone CaliforniaCalifornia crime and courtsWhat else is going onMust-readFor your downtime \"Photo <\/a> <\/p>\n

(Illustrations by Lindsey Made This; photograph by Andy Kropa \/ Invision \/ AP)<\/p>\n

Going outStaying inL.A. Affairs<\/p>\n

Get wrapped up in tantalizing stories about dating, relationships and marriage.<\/p>\n

Have a great day, from the Essential California team<\/p>\n

Hailey Branson-Potts, staff writer
Hugo Mart\u00edn, assistant editor, fast break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew J. Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters<\/p>\n

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com<\/a>. Check our top stories<\/a>, topics<\/a> and the latest articles<\/a> on latimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Faced with a big story, journalists like me love to offer our readers something we call \u201csweep.\u201d It\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":340237,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,2299,1085,891,2300,2297,340,2303,63,2302,1086,1459,2301,2298,74,225,315,688],"class_list":["post-340236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-civic-revolt","tag-covid","tag-covid-19","tag-days","tag-essential-california","tag-israel","tag-l-a","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-may","tag-pandemic","tag-part","tag-president-biden","tag-red-county","tag-san-diego","tag-state","tag-time","tag-years"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/340237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}