With many races still very tight and millions of ballots yet to be counted, political experts said Democrats are likely to hold \u2014 or even gain \u2014 the edge as results of the primary election come into focus.<\/p>\n
Republicans appear to have over-performed in early vote counts, but for a variety of reasons, experts believe the ballots will lean more Democratic as the latest vote-by-mail ballots are counted. This could benefit progressives in close races, but by how much remains an open question.<\/p>\n
\u201cDon\u2019t count [Councilmember] Nithya Raman out yet,\u201d said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, who closely tracks local elections. <\/p>\n
Raman is currently in third place behind reality TV personality Spencer Pratt and Mayor Karen Bass, who has secured a spot in the runoff<\/a>. Raman would have to make up significant ground to reach Pratt and receive a sizable portion of remaining votes. <\/p>\n \u201cPratt has an edge … but it\u2019s not free from doubt at this point,\u201d Yaroslavsky said.<\/p>\n Rob Stutzman, a longtime GOP strategist, agrees the remaining vote count will skew more strongly for Democrats, but he\u2019s \u201cnot so sure it\u2019s going to change where we\u2019re at.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t think you\u2019re going to see a big swing,\u201d Stutzman said.<\/p>\n Raman\u2019s chances rely on her beating Bass considerably in the remaining count \u2014 \u201cthat doesn\u2019t seem very likely,\u201d Stutzman said. <\/p>\n Still, the GOP \u2014 long the minority in deep blue California \u2014 had things to brag about on election night. Pratt, a Republican, clearly broke through to a certain segment of Los Angeles, which is overwhelmingly Democratic. And Steve Hilton, a Fox News commentator backed by President Trump, emerged as the leading vote-getter in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Experts have said both tapped into dissatisfaction with the status quo in Democratic politics.<\/a> <\/p>\n But in recent years, early momentum from Republicans has been tempered as the vote count becomes more complete, especially as Democrats are generally more comfortable voting by mail, a process that drags out election results.<\/a> And this primary, a push from the Democratic Party<\/a> to have voters cast later ballots increases the possibility of a blue swing.<\/p>\n Yaroslavsky predicted that ballots are going to get \u201cmore democratic, more progressive,\u201d particularly in Los Angeles County. <\/p>\n \u201cThe Republicans over-performed,\u201d Yaroslavsky said of early vote tallies. <\/p>\n This phenomenon was particularly evident last primary, when Bass initially trailed developer Rick Caruso in the mayoral race,<\/a> but as more ballots came in, Bass continued to gain a lead.<\/p>\n As of Wednesday morning, a higher share \u2014 32% \u2014 of counted ballots came from registered Republicans across the state, compared with 29% during 2022\u2019s primary at this point in the count, according to election tracking firm<\/a> Political Data Inc. And Democrats have made up a smaller share of early vote counts this primary \u2014 47% thus far compared with 51% in 2022 \u2014 which include early mailed-in and dropped-off ballots and votes cast at in-person polls.<\/p>\n The top two vote-getters advance to the November election, regardless of party. <\/p>\n That blue swing could also affect some statewide contests, experts said, particularly in the close race for governor. The top three vote-getters as of Wednesday morning \u2014 Hilton and Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer \u2014 were all within a few percentage points, though less than 60% of the expected vote had been counted.<\/p>\n Could Hilton \u2014 currently with about 28% of counted votes \u2014 face a real challenge from Steyer for the second place spot? It would be tough, experts say. <\/p>\n \u201cI think he\u2019s fairly comfortable,\u201d Stutzman said of Hilton. Unless voter turnout is markedly higher than expected, he doesn\u2019t see an easy path for Steyer coming back, especially because it would require Steyer resoundingly beating Becerra in the late vote.<\/p>\n Hilton currently leads the contest by about 100,000 votes over Becerra, but has an edge of about 400,000 votes over Steyer. Pollsters expect Becerra to make the runoff, given California\u2019s strong blue slant and recent surveys.<\/p>\n Ballots in California are accepted for up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked on or before election day, and the official count can take up to 30 days. <\/p>\n Voting by mail (or drop box) has become the favorite method among Californians since universal vote-by-mail was implemented in 2021: more than 80% of ballots have since come from absentee, or vote-by-mail ballots, according to the California Voter Foundation\u2019s analysis<\/a> of the last four vote counts in California. In 2022\u2019s primary it was as high as 91%. <\/p>\n \u201cWe need to accept the first ballots that are counted aren\u2019t always those that are most representative,\u201d said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. But that\u2019s not a sign that elections are rigged or fraudulent, she said, despite some politicians peddling such falsehoods.<\/a> <\/p>\n \u201cWe allow people lots of different avenues to vote, and as a result it takes longer to count up all the votes,\u201d Levinson said. \u201cThat\u2019s how it should be. … It\u2019s an argument in favor of making sure the process runs correctly \u2014 not quickly.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With many races still very tight and millions of ballots yet to be counted, political experts said Democrats…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":345469,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7167,29238,7,9,8,1751,141808,63,80054,141807,36877,45070,90355,17382,25299,4486,117857],"class_list":["post-345468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-ballot","tag-becerra","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-democrats","tag-early-vote-count","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-nithya-raman","tag-political-expert","tag-pratt","tag-primary-election","tag-rob-stutzman","tag-steve-hilton","tag-tom-steyer","tag-vote","tag-zev-yaroslavsky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=345468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345468\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/345469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=345468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=345468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=345468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}