{"id":345897,"date":"2026-06-04T03:22:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T03:22:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/345897\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T03:22:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T03:22:15","slug":"california-governors-race-heres-what-experts-say-on-early-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/345897\/","title":{"rendered":"California governor\u2019s race: Here\u2019s what experts say on early results"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Early \"Early Early California primary results point to tight November matchups<\/a> <\/p>\n

Early returns from Tuesday\u2019s primary election show a tight race shaping up for California governor. Donna Crane, a political science professor at\u00a0San Jose State University, joined us on ‘The Nine’ to break down the initial numbers, voter turnout trends, and a strong early showing.<\/p>\n

OAKLAND, Calif. – Republican Steve Hilton<\/a> and Democrat Xavier Becerra<\/a> have the top two spots in a crowded governor\u2019s match-up as of Wednesday afternoon, but still an estimated 1.2 million urban votes could shift this tight race.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With three candidates leading out of election night, political science experts chimed in on initial polling for governor and Los Angeles mayor.<\/p>\n

Tight California governor’s race <\/p>\n

Ballots still uncounted:<\/p>\n

Donna Crane, a senior political science lecturer at San Jose State University, proposed that the early results show a potential Becerra-Hilton face-off in the general election, but it’s still unknown who will be in the no. 1 and no. 2 spots.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“I’m happy and relieved to say that’s actually something I predicted,” said Crane.<\/p>\n

With over 1.2 million urban ballots outstanding, Crane suggests that these votes may lean Democrat and could have Becerra overtaking Hilton.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tom Steyer<\/a> is still behind, so it\u2019s not promising that he will catch up with those in the top spots, Crane said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, Melina Jackson, a political science professor at San Jose State, said that the public could also see a swell of support for Steyer, as his voters could be the ones who waited until the last minute, willing to take on a new candidate who’s never held office before.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This primary election garnered mass attention in April after Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out due to sexual assault allegations he’s since vehemently denied. Jackson notes that this shifted the trajectory of Becerra’s race as he was pulling low single digits at the beginning of the campaign, but support picked up after Swalwell dropped out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The match-up between Becerra and Hilton comes down to experience versus an outsider who aims to shake things up.\u00a0<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton<\/a>, and he leaned into this endorsement but also\u00a0said he has new ideas about taking a different approach to addressing the problems in California.<\/p>\n

Becerra <\/a>is touting his lengthy Democratic political experience.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“When he was attorney general here, Becerra sued the Trump administration many times during Trump’s first term, so he’s going to be emphasizing that,” Jackson said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jackson also said that Republicans were likely to send in their ballots early this year because they only had two candidates to choose from and then once Trump endorsed Hilton, his campaign gained more traction.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the Democratic side, both experts note a lot of people were waiting till the last minute.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“There’s so many twists and turns in this race and so many candidates that it was splitting the vote,” said Jackson.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In general, the people who vote in primaries are committed partisans or people who have a sort of high political information.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“So, that tends to be older, whiter, more affluent, more organized voters, right? Like voters who belong to interest groups or unions,” said Crane.<\/p>\n

But, that doesn’t mean younger voters didn’t hit the ballot boxes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Young voter turnout in California <\/p>\n

Dig deeper:<\/p>\n

With a big election so close, Crane said it encouraged voters to get out and hit the ballots. Young people typically don\u2019t vote in the primary elections, so Crane is pushing to change that narrative one semester at a time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“My students have really leaned forward into this election after Eric Swalwell had to drop out and all the really horrific revelations came out,” said Crane. “They’re very interested, and a lot more of them\u2026 paid a little more attention and registered to vote after that happened, after the race became, in their words, interesting.”<\/p>\n

Once all the votes are counted, Crane is looking at seeing did the young people vote? She found it surprising to see that not many younger candidates were able to cross the finish line, questioning if their losses were because of low turnout among young voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Los Angeles mayoral race <\/p>\n

What they’re saying:<\/p>\n

With the L.A. mayor race underway, it’s a battle between former reality TV star Spencer Pratt and incumbent long-time politician Karen Bass.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Crane said there was tremendous voter anger that stemmed from Bass not being in the country when the L.A. fires raged on, and problems needed to be handled in the city. Pratt is a newcomer with little political qualifications, but “gives voice to that frustration that people feel.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Looks like even a fair number of people on the left were frustrated by cost of living and the particular housing prices in L.A., taking it out on the incumbent regardless of policy,” said Crane.\u00a0<\/p>\n

These people were so frustrated to the point of potentially switching parties, she said.<\/p>\n

But, experts will have to see after looking at exit polls and cross tabs after the voting data is out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Republicans are making a case in both the L.A. mayor’s and governor’s races that the Democratic Party still faces persistent problems. Californians struggle with things like affordability, housing, health care, gas prices, to which Jackson said maybe a new approach is needed.<\/p>\n

\" \" <\/p>\n

The Source: Interviews with political science experts Donna Crane and Melina Jackson, professors at San Jose State University.<\/p>\n

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