The battle over redistricting that has burned hot in California and Texas already has shifted to other states, even before Tuesday\u2019s election.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not surprising, given by all accounts \u2014 even forthright opponents \u2014 the outcome of Proposition 50 is a fait accompli. People have looked silly before talking about sure things that weren\u2019t, but that doesn\u2019t seem to be in the cards this time, according to polls that show solid support<\/a> for the ballot measure.<\/p>\n While the proposal was a direct response to offset the redistricting in Texas that may gain the GOP five seats, partisans in other red and blue states are looking to redraw maps.<\/p>\n Proposition 50, assuming it passes, will not only reshape several California congressional districts but refocus what next year\u2019s campaign will look like.<\/p>\n Seven likely competitive districts may shrink to two or three, with Republican Rep. Darrell Issa\u2019s 48th one of them, according to analysts.<\/p>\n That means a lot of Democratic and Republican money that would have been spread out among at least those seven might be concentrated on the remaining few districts in contention.<\/p>\n For example, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin\u2019s 49th District straddling the San Diego and Orange County line was a decidedly purple battleground in the last five elections. The new maps give him more Democratic votes, possibly enough to take his district off the chessboard.<\/p>\n While in theory Democrats could gain the advantage in at least five currently GOP districts, some remaining Republican seats also became more red.<\/p>\n Issa\u2019s current very red San Diego East County-centric district becomes only slightly blue. For that reason, many close election watchers likely will drill into Tuesday\u2019s vote in the new 48th, trying to read the tea leaves about what that means for the November 2026 election.<\/p>\n On that, UC San Diego political science Professor Thad Kousser flashes a caution sign.<\/p>\n He said such an assessment would be \u201cinteresting, but a misleading data point.\u201d<\/p>\n For one thing, the current statewide campaign is not candidate-specific and there has been a severe imbalance in funding. The anti-Proposition 50 effort received an early flurry of big money that has since dried up. The campaign has been minimal in recent days.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the pro side has been so flush while waging a full-force campaign that Gov. Gavin Newsom last week took the unusual step of urging small donors to stop contributing<\/a>.<\/p>\n It\u2019s unlikely the competitive districts would see such an imbalance next year. And how the campaigns target voters likely will be different, according to Kousser.<\/p>\n \u201cDemocratic leaders have sought to pass Prop. 50 by mobilizing their base of Democratic voters, counting on them to vote \u2018Yes,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cRepublicans have sought to oppose it by persuading independent voters and some Democrats to vote \u2018No,\u2019 rather than mobilizing their base.<\/p>\n \u201cThat might lead to a more Democratic-leaning electorate in November 2025 than we are likely to see in November 2026, when both parties will be focused on turning out their base and persuading independents.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, a blowout for Proposition 50 in Issa\u2019s new district could be discouraging for Republicans. Conversely, a very close win or loss of the ballot measure in the district might have Democrats gulping hard given their campaign has argued this is a vote against President Donald Trump, who is very unpopular in California. Issa is an outspoken Trump loyalist.<\/p>\n The new 48th District would no longer include Poway, Santee or Ramona, while picking up San Marcos and Vista and reaching deeper into Riverside County, dropping Murrieta but adding Palm Springs. That would give Democrats a registration advantage of 4 percentage points over Republicans.<\/p>\n Kousser reiterated that he believes Issa nevertheless \u201chas a real shot.\u201d<\/p>\n He said the incumbent collected votes above the GOP registration in his current district in the past election, albeit against a largely unknown candidate. Kousser also said Issa is more of a known entity now in the parts of the district that will remain in the new one.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s built up a reputation with those voters that he didn\u2019t have the last time he ran against Ammar Campa-Najjar,\u201d Kousser said.<\/p>\n Campa-Najjar and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert are considered the two leading Democratic candidates running next year in the 48th District. Issa defeated Campa-Najjar by 8 points in 2020, Issa\u2019s first election in what was then a new district for him.<\/p>\n In the big California picture, Kousser said what the political dynamics are next year and who\u2019s actually on the ballot likely will be determinative factors. He said an indicator will come with the filing deadlines early next year.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the real prospect of election disputes, given Trump already has been making his seemingly reflexive, baseless contention that fraud<\/a> will occur. He\u2019s sending federal election monitors<\/a> to California and New Jersey next week, and it\u2019s safe to assume he\u2019ll send more \u2014 or other forces \u2014 across the country in 2026.<\/p>\n While Democrats are targeting five California districts to flip, Kousser said only a couple are likely to be highly competitive. He said the nationwide redistricting gyrations could leave the GOP with a gain of five or six seats, but that it may not matter much in the end.<\/p>\n \u201cAll these marginal changes could be washed away if there\u2019s a big midterm swing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In Trump\u2019s first midterm election in 2018, Republicans lost 40 House seats, according<\/a> to The American Presidency Project.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the anticipated Republican \u201cred wave\u201d during President Joe Biden\u2019s 2022 midterms fizzled badly.<\/p>\n The real wild card this time around may be whether the Supreme Court limits<\/a> the Voting Rights Act in time for the midterms by doing away with Section 2, a key provision that has prevented the dilution of Black voting influence.<\/p>\n By one estimate, that could allow the GOP to gain 19 more seats, perhaps in addition to what the party would pick up under the existing redistricting efforts.<\/p>\n That likely would make the notion that the House majority will be determined by the California-Texas fight seem like ancient history.<\/p>\n What they said<\/p>\n