State & Local
\n California
\n Campaigns & Elections<\/p>\n
X-actly what happened? Let\u2019s begin with the man most likely to be California\u2019s next governor: former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, the leading Democratic voter-getter this week (words that seemed unlikely as a few weeks ago, when Becerra as a lower-tier hopeful struggled to get on a debate stage<\/a>).<\/p>\n Why go bullish on Becerra, who didn\u2019t get the most votes on Primary Day in California? (Here’s a link<\/a> to a still-in-progress vote count, made even more glacial by Californians holding onto their ballots until the last moment.)<\/p>\n Call it basic California math. Assuming the November contest ends up as a face-off between Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News on-air personality, the numbers<\/a> suggest a fait accompli: as of mid-May, California election officials report, there were 4.6 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the Golden State.\u00a0<\/p>\n Still, the race might be competitive. Becerra\u2019s rise to the top of the Democratic pyramid, despite not much in the way of pizzazz or revolutionary thought, leads one to ask: is boring back?<\/a><\/p>\n Political thrills or not, California voters aren\u2019t in a happy place. This poll<\/a>, on the primary\u2019s eve, showed a majority of voters saying the Golden State is on the wrong track and disapproving of Governor Gavin Newsom\u2019s job performance. And in case you\u2019re wondering why Newsom didn\u2019t endorse a fellow Democrat as his successor, it might be as simple as wanting to avoid embarrassment: he endorsed Josh Fryday for lieutenant governor back in April<\/a>, only to see Fryday fail to make the runoff<\/a> (unless there\u2019s a remarkable swing in uncounted ballots).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Given that California hasn\u2019t chosen a Republican to replace a retiring governor since 1990, a straight-up bet seems foolish. Let\u2019s go instead with a point spread taken from a previous election involving an uncharismatic Democrat. Should it be a Becerra-Hilton matchup, does the first poll suggest something akin to 2002<\/a>, when former governor Gray Davis won by only 4.9 percent statewide, a difference of fewer than 364,000 votes?<\/p>\n The Mark\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0of Zohran? Unlike America\u2019s jet stream that blows from west to east, it\u2019s not so clear that political trends and practices move the same way.<\/p>\n One such example: a Los Angeles mayoral contest that paralleled what transpired last year in New York City, when an upstart mayoral hopeful benefited from a gonzo social-media campaign\u2014the socialist Zohran Mamdani splashing about in icy waters<\/a> to underscore his call for a rent freeze.<\/p>\n In 2026, the \u201cLA story\u201d is Spencer Pratt, the former reality television \u201cvillain\u201d whose second-place campaign featured over-the-top AI videos<\/a> depicting the political outsider as a superhero battling villainous nemeses (imagine Pratt as Batman and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass as the villainous Joker).<\/p>\n Pratt\u2019s campaign understood something: in 2026, alternative media can be just as effective as traditional news outlets in reaching out to voters. For Pratt, that meant a leg-up from the likes of TMZ\u2019s Harvey Levin<\/a> and broadcaster\/podcaster Billy Bush<\/a> (you might remember Bush from a controversy<\/a> that arose during Trump\u2019s first presidential run).<\/p>\n Combine that with relentless social media posts, and Pratt built a steady presence in the mayoral primary\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0though maybe not an electable one, given that Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly 3-to-1 in Los Angeles County<\/a>.<\/p>\n Think of this as this a natural progression in American politics: as technology advances, candidates change their approach to messaging media. In 1993, a newly elected Bill Clinton boasted that Larry King\u2019s eponymous interview show on CNN \u201cliberated\u201d him<\/a> from the drudgery of dealing with the White House press corps. In 2016, Donald Trump\u2019s improbable win showed the value in harnessing Facebook and Twitter (as opposed to Barack Obama holding a traditional press conference three days after winning the presidency in 2008, President-elect Trump instead turned to Twitter<\/a>).<\/p>\n Will a Democratic or Republican presidential hopeful follow the Mamdani-Pratt playbook in 2028? Ironically, it might be Newsom, who showed up in this pro-Pratt Star Wars spoof<\/a> as California\u2019s answer to the evil Sheev Palpatine.<\/p>\n Has Tom Steyer finally cashed out? At last check<\/a>, the hedge-fund billionaire and chronic candidate\/political activist had spent $213 million of his fortune trying to make the November runoff, only to finish behind Becerra and Hilton.<\/p>\n That number will climb after the Steyer campaign turns in its next financial report showing what else the campaign spent in the primary\u2019s home stretch. Assuming Steyer is the odd man out for the general election, reporters will delight in the forensics of what he spent in way of media buys<\/a>, buying influencers<\/a>, and enabling political consultants to purchase vacation homes.<\/p>\n Not that Steyer is a fool, but the man and (a good-sized chunk of) his money parted ways. Back in 2020 and convinced that campaigning as a born-again climate-change activist was his ticket to the Democratic nomination, Steyer spent $345 million of his own money<\/a> on a presidential effort that didn\u2019t last beyond the South Carolina primary<\/a>.<\/p>\n Assuming Steyer doesn\u2019t make up the gap and remains mired in third place, is this the last time he runs for office, with little to show after spending $600 million on two failed candidacies? If so, local media outlets, podcasts, and streaming services should thank him for frittering away hundreds of millions of dollars that could have served a nobler purpose (Steyer\u2019s $600 million translating to a free four-year ride for about 2,750 UC-Berkeley undergrads<\/a>).<\/p>\n No way, (San) Jose. A la Steyer, what\u2019s the next political move for San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, whose gubernatorial run never took off despite considerable seed money from his wealthy friends and neighbors in Silicon Valley<\/a>?<\/p>\n Mahan will need to revisit his campaign strategy. Though a frequent jouster with Governor Gavin Newsom over the latter\u2019s approach to homelessness<\/a>, it\u2019s not as if the mayor established much of a beachhead as a \u201cchange\u201d candidate.<\/p>\n Also worth second-guessing: why the Mahan campaign figured that touting the virtues of San Jose<\/a>, a city not foremost on Californians\u2019 minds, would sway voters (well, that and the distraction of a candidate walking around in ads unshaven and with his dress shirt untucked, looking more like a beta male than an alpha mayor).<\/p>\n If upward political mobility is Mahan\u2019s long game, here\u2019s the bad news: there won\u2019t be many openings in Sacramento in 2030 or sooner\u2014not with a new governor and multiple statewide constitutional officers beginning their first terms in January.<\/p>\n Now, the good news for the forty-three-year-old Mahan: there are second and third acts in California politics.<\/p>\n Just ask former governor Pete Wilson, who finished a distant fourth in 1978\u2019s Republican gubernatorial primary. Wilson was a forty-four-year-old San Diego mayor with little statewide name recognition outside his area code. Four years later, Wilson bested Jerry Brown in a US Senate contest. Eight years after that, he was elected governor of California.<\/p>\n Does Mahan have the same patience\u2014waiting a dozen years to make the two-hour drive from San Jose to California\u2019s State Capitol? If so, will an older (and presumably wiser) Mahan bother to shave and tuck in his shirt?<\/p>\n A lack of initiative(s). National Recycling Month isn\u2019t until November, but let\u2019s end by recycling a familiar complaint in this space<\/a>: the exclusion of citizens\u2019 ballot measures from California\u2019s statewide primaries.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a problem that\u2019s been years in the making\u2014all the way back to 2011 and Jerry Brown\u2019s first year in office, in his second go-round as governor, when he signed SB 202<\/a> and banned voter-driven initiatives from future Golden State primary ballots.<\/p>\n Brown defended his action as what\u2019s best for democracy: \u201cThere are dramatically more voters at a general rather than a primary election,\u201d the governor\u2019s signing statement read. \u201cThe idea of direct democracy is to involve as many voters as possible. This bill accomplishes that objective.\u201d<\/p>\n What wasn\u2019t said: moving such initiatives to the November ballot, with its larger turnout among progressive voters, meant better odds of defeating right-leaning initiatives.<\/p>\n But in this year\u2019s California primary, a few such ideas would have been welcome relief from a contest that turned ugly in the home stretch<\/a>, with Steyer and Becerra questioning each other\u2019s moral compass.<\/p>\n In a primary open to voter initiatives, California might have engaged in a debate over voter identification<\/a>. A November initiative, if approved, would require voters to present government-issued identification to vote in person, or the last four digits of a government-issued number for mail ballots.<\/p>\n Or, the Golden State could have had a full-blown conversation about wealth, taxes, and the future of California\u2019s economy\u2014matters all germane to another November initiative which, if approved, would impose a one-time 5 percent tax on California billionaires<\/a> (in fact, ads attacking the initiative<\/a> made something of a cameo appearance during the primary even as Steyer\u2019s massive ad buys dominated the airwaves.<\/p>\n Those ads were still on California\u2019s airwaves after the polls closed earlier this week, which suggests a bitter and expensive argument ahead over wealth, taxation, and California\u2019s fragile revenue stream despite a world-class economy.<\/p>\n The next governor might not end up saying, \u201cIt\u2019s good to be king.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"State & Local California Campaigns & Elections X-actly what happened? 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