{"id":355903,"date":"2026-06-11T06:37:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T06:37:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/355903\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T06:37:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T06:37:26","slug":"is-prop-50-on-track-to-flip-5-california-house-seats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/355903\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Prop 50 on track to flip 5 California House seats?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img alt=\"Prop 50 radically redrew Rep. Kevin Kiley's previous congressional district. He's now running in the 6th District, and will face Democrat Richard Pan.\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:3 \/ 2\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofcv bgscv block bg-gray200 mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Prop 50 radically redrew Rep. Kevin Kiley&#8217;s previous congressional district. He&#8217;s now running in the 6th District, and will face Democrat Richard Pan.<\/p>\n<p>Tom Williams\/CQ Roll Call\/TNS<\/p>\n<p>Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s bid to help Democrats take control of the House faced its first major test this month in the state\u2019s<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/projects\/2026\/california-primary-election-results\/\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> primary elections<\/a>, which determined the candidates who will face off in the November midterms. With all of the races called, it\u2019s clear: The maps are working as Democrats intended.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/california-prop-50-results-21125627.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">California voters endorsed Newsom\u2019s strategy in a special election<\/a> last year, scrapping the state\u2019s previous congressional districts drawn by an independent commission and approving new ones drawn by Democrats to give their candidates an edge.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats hope to flip five seats currently held by Republicans to Democratic control under the new maps while boosting their incumbents in what were formerly swing districts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>When Prop 50 passed, it was one of several efforts underway by Democrats to counter redistricting efforts begun by Republicans to shift more congressional seats in their favor. Now, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncsl.org\/redistricting-and-census\/changing-the-maps-tracking-mid-decade-redistricting\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">calculus has shifted<\/a>, after efforts by Democrats in Virginia and New York have fallen short and more redistricting bids in Republican-led states have succeeded, in part thanks to a Supreme Court decision <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/03\/us\/politics\/supreme-court-voting-rights-alabama.html\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">gutting the Voting Rights Act<\/a>. That means there\u2019s even more riding on California\u2019s congressional districts.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at how those races are shaping up after the primary:<\/p>\n<p>District 1<\/p>\n<p>One of the most audacious moves of Prop 50 was to carve up the heavily Republican rural north state and lump its voters in with liberal cities and coastal communities hundreds of miles away. Rep. Jared Huffman, D-San Rafael, is now poised to represent a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/jared-huffman-prop-50-21305767.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">new district that stretches all the way<\/a> from Marin County to the northeastern corner of California. And this open seat, which cuts from Santa Rosa through Chico to the Nevada border, looks set to elect a Democrat in what was once the territory of the ultraconservative Rep. Doug LaMalfa.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Rep. Jared Huffman meets with tribal leaders in his newly redrawn district in Burney on Jan. 27, 2026. Prop 50 expanded Huffman's district to include much of the upper northeastern portions of the state.\" loading=\"lazy\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:3 \/ 2\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofcv bgscv block bg-gray200 mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Rep. Jared Huffman meets with tribal leaders in his newly redrawn district in Burney on Jan. 27, 2026. Prop 50 expanded Huffman&#8217;s district to include much of the upper northeastern portions of the state.<\/p>\n<p>Carlos Avila Gonzalez\/S.F. Chronicle<\/p>\n<p>Republican Assembly Member James Gallagher\u00a0\u2014 a protege of the late LaMalfa, who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/lamalfa-california-death-congress-21279322.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">died unexpectedly in January<\/a> from a heart condition\u00a0\u2014 won a special election to serve out the remainder of LaMalfa\u2019s term under the old lines. But he\u2019s an underdog in November, when he\u2019ll face Democratic former state Senate leader Mike McGuire. Gallagher received 44% of the vote in the primary, as of Tuesday, while McGuire and fellow Democrat Audrey Denney, who finished third, combined for more than 54%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>District 6<\/p>\n<p>Cracking apart Rep. Kevin Kiley\u2019s sprawling district along the eastern border of California allowed for the creation of two new Democratic-leaning seats that unfurl from the Sacramento suburbs.<\/p>\n<p>San Francisco Chronicle Logo<\/p>\n<p>Make us a Preferred Source to get more of our news when you search.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=sfchronicle.com\" data-link=\"native\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"Add Preferred Source\" class=\"td300 cp f aic jcc disabled:cd wsn px24 y40px px16 py8 buttonSm fs13 xs:fs16 xs:buttonLg bg-primaryAccessible hover:o80 c-white disabled:bg-gray300 disabled:c-gray600 border bn tac br2\"><\/p>\n<p>Add Preferred Source<\/p>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Rep. Ami Bera, D-Sacramento, jumped into the elephant head-shaped 3rd District. He advanced out of the primary ahead of several Democratic challengers\u00a0\u2014 they collectively combined for more than 55% of the vote, as of Tuesday\u00a0\u2014 and will face Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor, in November.<\/p>\n<p>After a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/kevin-kiley-congress-21943301.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reality show-esque deliberation<\/a> about where to run, Kiley, who <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/rep-kevin-kiley-independent-gerrymandering-21962817.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dropped his Republican affiliation<\/a> in March, settled on the 6th District, which includes his home base of Rocklin (Placer County). Early primary results showed the crowded Democratic field <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/california-district-6-democrats-22289899.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">at risk of a lockout<\/a>, splitting the vote and potentially allowing independent Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield to advance. But former state Sen. Richard Pan has since pulled ahead of Stansfield as more votes were counted. The five Democrats account for nearly 54% of the vote, as of Tuesday, putting Pan in a good position to deny Kiley another term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>District 22<\/p>\n<p>For more than a decade, Democrats have tried to take out Rep. David Valadao, the Bakersfield Republican who has (mostly) defied a Democratic voter registration advantage to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/How-this-pro-impeachment-California-Republican-17380671.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hold onto this seat<\/a> in the southern Central Valley. (After narrowly losing in 2018, he won it back two years later.) So Prop 50 added a section from Fresno County that tips the partisan lean even more Democratic.<\/p>\n<p>That didn\u2019t stop the party from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/jasmeet-bains-randy-villegas-david-valadao-22261629.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fighting over how to beat him<\/a>. House Democrats\u2019 campaign arm intervened in the primary to boost the more moderate Assembly Member Jasmeet Bains, infuriating progressives who backed Randy Villegas, a community college political science professor running as a populist outsider. Villegas ultimately prevailed.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans will surely now attack him as too liberal for the district as he tries to oust Valadao in November. But there are flashing warning signs for Valadao, who received less than 41% of the primary vote, as of Tuesday, compared with more than 59% for the Democrats. In 2024, under the old district lines, Valadao and another Republican candidate combined for nearly 55% in the primary, before he beat his Democratic opponent by almost 7 percentage points that November.<\/p>\n<p>Districts 40 and 41<\/p>\n<p>To create another Democratic seat in Southern California, the new maps pack many of the Republican voters in the suburban Orange County 40th District represented by Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim, and the Inland Empire-based 41st District represented by Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Palm Desert (Riverside County), together into a new 40th District. Prop 50 created a new District 41 that includes Democratic voters in Eastern Los Angeles County and Northern Orange County.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, was part of a Republican delegation that met with President-elect Donald Trump ahead of his inauguration. She's pictured here chairing a roundtable on U.S.-Taiwan relations at Santiago Canyon College in Orange, California, on Sept. 6, 2024. (Jeff Gritchen\/Orange County Register\/TNS)\" loading=\"lazy\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:3 \/ 2\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofcv bgscv block bg-gray200 mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, was part of a Republican delegation that met with President-elect Donald Trump ahead of his inauguration. She&#8217;s pictured here chairing a roundtable on U.S.-Taiwan relations at Santiago Canyon College in Orange, California, on Sept. 6, 2024. (Jeff Gritchen\/Orange County Register\/TNS)<\/p>\n<p>Jeff Gritchen\/TNS<\/p>\n<p>That gambit appears to have worked. Kim and Calvert are now locked in a battle for District 40, having both advanced to the general election. Calvert enters the general election as an apparent favorite, having secured 35% of the vote compared with Kim\u2019s 21%.<\/p>\n<p>In District 41, Democrat Linda Sanchez appears to have a clear advantage over Republican plumber Mitch Clemmons. Sanchez, who currently represents District 38, and two other Democrats garnered about 64% of the vote in the primary.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats are also primed to retain District 38, where three Democratic candidates are also winning about 64% of the vote. The leading Democrat, Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, will face Republican Pedro Casas, a retired Army colonel, in the general election.<\/p>\n<p>District 48<\/p>\n<p>Rep. Darrell Issa, D-Escondido (San Diego County), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/darrell-issa-retires-21959990.php\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">opted not to run for reelection<\/a> after Proposition 50 shifted the demographics in his district to favor Democrats. He endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond in the race. Desmond, a Republican, will face San Diego City Council Member Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat, in the general election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>Von Wilpert won the second spot in the race amid a crowded field that included nine Democrats. Together, the Democrats in the race won 53% of the vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Districts 9, 13, 27 and 49<\/p>\n<p>The Proposition 50 maps also aimed to make several seats held by Democrats easier contests.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>District 13, held by Rep. Adam Gray, D-Turlock, is a target for Republicans, who have been attacking Gray over his votes against President Donald Trump\u2019s immigration policies. Gray was a staunch moderate in the state Legislature, and has continued in that vein since being elected to Congress in 2024. In Congress, he has joined the Blue Dog Coalition of moderate Democrats and recently wrote an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2026\/06\/08\/democrats-dont-understand-everyday-life\/\" data-link=\"native\" class=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">op-ed in the Washington Post<\/a> criticizing his party for not paying enough attention to financial problems facing people in his district.<\/p>\n<p>After winning his seat by just 187 votes in 2024, Gray appears on an easier path to victory this year. He and another Democratic candidate in the race garnered nearly 57% of the vote as of Wednesday. His general election opponent, former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, and another Republican candidate won 43%.<\/p>\n<p>In District 49, incumbent Rep. Mike Levin, D-Oceanside (San Diego County), was winning 56% of the vote as of Wednesday morning. That\u2019s a significant improvement on his showing in the 2024 general election, when he won 52%. Similarly, Rep. Josh Harder, D-Stockton, was winning 60% of the vote Wednesday, compared with 52% in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Reps. David Min, D-Costa Mesa (Orange County), and George Whitesides, D-Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), both advanced to the general election in their districts alongside Republican challengers. They each won smaller percentages of the votes in this year\u2019s primary than they did in the 2024 general election because other Democrats also ran in the primary, cutting into their vote share. But Democrats in Min\u2019s district were winning a combined 53.7% Wednesday compared with 50.1% Min won in 2024, and Democrats in Whitesides\u2019 district were winning 59% of the vote Wednesday compared with Whitesides\u2019 51% in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Rep. Derek Tran, D-Cypress (Orange County), was winning 53.7% of the vote Wednesday compared with 50.1% in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Political consultant and California voting expert Paul Mitchell, who helped draw the new maps to benefit Democrats, said he\u2019s planning to do a deep analysis of the numbers once more votes are tallied. But he says so far, the results from the primary suggest the maps are working as Democrats intended.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s all these great signs looking at the primary data,\u201d he said of the Democratic candidates in the target districts. \u201cThey\u2019re performing extremely well.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prop 50 radically redrew Rep. Kevin Kiley&#8217;s previous congressional district. He&#8217;s now running in the 6th District, and&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":355904,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,204,13,2013],"class_list":["post-355903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-election","tag-politics","tag-us-and-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=355903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355903\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/355904"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=355903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=355903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=355903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}