<\/p>\n
A view over California in June 2026.<\/p>\n
NOAA<\/p>\n
After\u00a0months of anticipation<\/a>, the National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center declared on Thursday that El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> conditions have developed.\u00a0<\/p>\n The latest data shows a 63% chance<\/a> that El Ni\u00f1o, the seasonal climate pattern that generally brings a wet winter to California along with a cascade of global weather<\/a> impacts, will become \u201cvery strong<\/a>\u201d from November 2026 through January 2027.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n California experts are closely monitoring the potency of this El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o, which some models<\/a> show as on par\u00a0with the\u00a0previous seven very strong events<\/a> since 1950 and others forecast will make history by the end of the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cEl\u00a0Ni\u00f1o kept brewing, and now the telltale signs have become strong signals,\u201d Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at\u00a0UC San Diego, told SFGATE. \u201cAll the models basically came into agreement to predict\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o,\u00a0and most of them are predicting a very strong El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n FILE: Commuters navigate the rain in San Francisco.<\/p>\n Anadolu\/Getty Images<\/p>\n El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase of a pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean, called the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. During El Ni\u00f1o events, weak trade winds are associated with above-average surface temperatures in those waters. The other phase, La Ni\u00f1a, brings stronger winds that promote cooler ocean conditions. The pattern alternates irregularly, with neutral phases in between.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Generally, the stronger the event \u2014 meaning the warmer those seas get along the equator \u2014 the\u00a0more reliable<\/a> the impacts of El Ni\u00f1o are for forecasters. Across the U.S.,\u00a0scientists typically associate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o<\/a> with drier, warmer winters in some northern parts of the country and with wetter winters in areas like the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Eastern Pacific hurricane activity\u00a0can intensify<\/a>. Combined with the extreme\u00a0marine heat wave<\/a> already baking the Pacific Ocean, the current El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o will not only affect the weather but also likely marine life<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cA strong El Ni\u00f1o ensures that we\u2019re going to break a new global temperature record this year, and this additional warmth, energy in the global environment will also foster more extremes, especially heat waves and extreme storms,\u201d Gershunov said. \u201cThere are regional caveats like, for example, the Atlantic hurricane season is going to be diminished because of this El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n In California, the El Ni\u00f1o pattern tips the odds in favor of a wetter winter season, especially in the southern part of the state. The seemingly endless string of rainy days from past El Ni\u00f1o winters such as 1997-1998<\/a> loom large in the collective memory of residents.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Yet scientists have to come to appreciate that El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o years can lead to a variety of outcomes locally. In the winter of 2015-2016, for example, the infamous \u201cGodzilla<\/a>\u201d El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 one of the strongest ever recorded \u2014 did not deliver the expected precipitation in Southern California.<\/p>\n Michelle\u00a0L\u2019Heureux, who leads the ENSO team at the Climate Prediction Center, explained the significance of Thursday\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o forecast for California.\u00a0<\/p>\n Stay informed, and entertained.<\/p>\n By signing up, you agree to our Terms Of Use<\/a> and acknowledge that your information will be used as described in our Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cA stronger El\u00a0Nino historically means an increased chance of above-average [precipitation] for California,\u201d L\u2019Heureux wrote to SFGATE by email. \u201cHowever, the CPC outlook takes in account other factors too and the El Nino signal is not very strong over California. In particular, over the recent decade or so, there has been a drying trend which complicates the El\u00a0Nino signal for California.\u201d<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Jan Null, a meteorologist and private weather consultant with Golden Gate Weather Services<\/a>, told SFGATE a similar story about the Golden State based on the records of past <\/a>El\u00a0Ni\u00f1os<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cLet\u2019s say we know for sure that it\u2019s going to be a strong or very strong El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o, and that\u2019s a fairly good likelihood, but what does that mean for California rainfall?\u201d he said. \u201cIt tilts the meter toward more rain than normal, but there are no absolutes in this game.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A view over California in June 2026. NOAA After\u00a0months of anticipation, the National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":356198,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,1692,106624,1691],"class_list":["post-356197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-sfgnews","tag-sfgscience","tag-sfgweather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/356197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=356197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/356197\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/356198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=356197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=356197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=356197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/p>\n
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