If the ads are any indication, Proposition 50 offers Californians a stark choice: \u201cStick it to Trump\u201d or \u201cthrow away the constitution\u201d in a Democratic power grab.<\/p>\n
And like so many things in 2025, Trump appears to be the galvanizing issue.<\/p>\n
Even by the incendiary campaigns California is used to, Proposition 50 has been notable for its sharp attacks to cut through the dense, esoteric issue of congressional redistricting. It comes down to a basic fact: this is a Democratic-led measure to reconfigure California\u2019s congressional districts to help their party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 and stifle President Trump\u2019s attempts to keep Republicans in power through similar means in other states. <\/p>\n
Thus far, the anti-Trump message preached by Proposition 50 advocates, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom and other top Democrats, appears to be the most effective. <\/p>\n
Supporters of the proposal have vastly outraised their rivals <\/a>and Proposition 50, one of the most expensive ballot measure campaigns in state history, leads in the polls.<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cWhenever you can take an issue and personalize it, you have the advantage. In this case, proponents of 50 can make it all about stopping Donald Trump,\u201d said former legislative leader and state GOP Chair Jim Brulte.<\/p>\n Adding to the drama is the role of two political and cultural icons who have emerged as leaders of each side: former President Obama in favor and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger against, both arguing the very essence of democracy is at stake. <\/p>\n Schwarzenegger and the two main committees opposing Proposition 50 have focused on the ethical and moral imperative of preserving the independent redistricting commission. Californians in 2010 voted to create the panel to draw the state\u2019s congressional district boundaries after every census in an effort to provide fair representation to all state residents.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not a political ideal easily explained in a 30-section television ad, or an Instagram post.<\/p>\n Redistricting is a \u201ccomplex issue,\u201d Brulte said, but he noted that \u201cthe no side has the burden of trying to explain what the initiative really does and the yes side gets to use the crib notes [that] this is about stopping Trump \u2014 a much easier path.\u201d<\/p>\n Partisans on both sides of the aisle agree.<\/p>\n \u201cThe yes side quickly leveraged anti-Trump messaging and has been closing with direct base appeals to lock in the lead,\u201d said Jamie Fisfis, a political strategist who has worked on many GOP congressional campaigns in California. \u201cThe partisanship and high awareness behind the measure meant it was unlikely to sag under the weight of negative advertising like other initiatives often do. It\u2019s been a turnout game.\u201d<\/p>\n Obama, in ads that aired during the World Series and NFL games, warned that \u201cDemocracy is on the ballot Nov. 4\u201d as he urged voters to support Proposition 50. Ads for the most well-funded committee opposing the proposition featured Schwarzenegger saying that opposing the ballot measure was critical to ensuring that citizens are not overrun by elected officials.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Constitution does not start with \u2018We, the politicians.\u2019 It starts with \u2018We, the people,\u2019\u201d Schwarzenegger told USC students in mid-September \u2014 a speech excerpted in an anti-Proposition 50 ad. \u201cDemocracy \u2014 we\u2019ve got to protect it, and we\u2019ve got to go and fight for it.\u201d<\/p>\n California\u2019s Democratic-led Legislature voted in August to put the redistricting proposal that would likely boost their ranks in Congress on the November ballot. The measure, pushed by Newsom, was an effort to counter Trump\u2019s efforts to increase the number of GOP members in the House from Texas and other GOP-led states.<\/p>\n The GOP holds a narrow edge in the House, and next year\u2019s election will determine which party controls the body during Trump\u2019s final two years in office \u2014 and whether he can further his agenda or is the focus of investigations and possible impeachment.<\/p>\n Noticeably absent for California\u2019s Proposition 50 fight is the person who triggered it \u2014 Trump.<\/p>\n The proposition\u2019s opponents\u2019 decision not to highlight Trump is unsurprising given the president\u2019s deep unpopularity among Californians. More than two-thirds of the state\u2019s likely voters did not approve of his handling of the presidency in late October, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll.<\/p>\n Trump did, however, urge California voter not to cast mail-in ballots or vote early, falsely arguing in a social media post that both voting methods were \u201cdishonest.\u201d <\/p>\n Some California GOP leaders feared that Trump\u2019s pronouncement would suppress the Republican vote.<\/p>\n In recent days, the California Republican Party sent mailers to registered Republicans shaming them for not voting. \u201cYour neighbors are watching,\u201d the mailer says, featuring a picture of a woman peering through binoculars. \u201cDon\u2019t let your neighbors down. They\u2019ll find out!\u201d<\/p>\n Tuesday\u2019s election will cost state taxpayers nearly $300 million. And it\u2019s unclear if the result will make a difference in control of the House because of multiple redistricting efforts in other states.<\/p>\n But some Democrats are torn about the amount of money being spent on an effort that may not alter the partisan makeup of Congress.<\/p>\n Johanna Moska, who worked in the Obama administration, described Proposition 50 as \u201cfrustrating.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI just wish we were spending money to rectify the state\u2019s problems, if we figured out a way the state could be affordable for people,\u201d she said. \u201cGavin\u2019s found what\u2019s working for Gavin. And that\u2019s resistance to Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n