{"id":359429,"date":"2026-06-13T16:07:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T16:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/359429\/"},"modified":"2026-06-13T16:07:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T16:07:09","slug":"el-nino-could-hit-california-economy-with-flood-supply-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/359429\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o could hit California economy with flood, supply shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Federal forecasters say El Ni\u00f1o is officially underway <\/a>\u2014 and for California, that likely means a wetter, stormier winter with high stakes for flooding, infrastructure, and the state\u2019s already volatile water cycle.<\/p>\n

Globally, the climate pattern \u2014 driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters \u2014 has a track record of causing trillions in economic losses. Experts warn this one could rank among the most expensive on record as shifting weather disrupts agriculture, supply chains, and economies worldwide.<\/p>\n

A 2023 study <\/a>found past El Ni\u00f1o events triggered massive global income losses, including about $4.1 trillion after the 1982\u201383 event and roughly $5.7 trillion after the 1997\u201398 event.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe current forecasts imply this could be the costliest El Ni\u00f1o on record,\u201d said Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth geographer who studies its economic impacts.<\/p>\n

Here’s what to know about El Ni\u00f1o’s potential effect on California and the global economy.<\/p>\n

Impact of El Ni\u00f1o on California <\/p>\n

For California, El Ni\u00f1o typically tilts the odds toward wetter, warmer winters \u2014 but the real-world impact can vary widely depending on storm tracks and intensity.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what to watch across the state:<\/p>\n

Heavy rain and flood risk <\/p>\n

Southern California and parts of the Central Coast often see above-normal rainfall during strong El Ni\u00f1o years<\/p>\n

That raises the risk of urban flooding, debris flows and dangerous conditions in recent burn scar areas<\/p>\n

Reservoirs may refill quickly, but rapid inflows can strain flood-control systems<\/p>\n

Snowpack and water supply swings <\/p>\n

Warmer storms can mean more rain and less snow in the Sierra Nevada<\/p>\n

That can reduce long-term water storage even if overall precipitation rises<\/p>\n

Water managers may face a familiar California whiplash \u2014 from drought concerns to flood control in the same season<\/p>\n

Infrastructure and road impacts <\/p>\n

Heavy storms can damage roads, trigger landslides and slow transportation networks<\/p>\n

Coastal erosion and high surf events can also threaten shoreline infrastructure<\/p>\n

Agriculture upsides and risks <\/p>\n

Some crops benefit from increased moisture after dry years<\/p>\n

But too much rain can delay planting, damage fields and increase disease pressure<\/p>\n

Farm labor and supply chains can also be disrupted during prolonged storms<\/p>\n

Wildfire implications <\/p>\n

Short term, wetter conditions can reduce fire risk<\/p>\n

But increased vegetation growth can create more fuel that dries out in future seasons, setting up longer-term fire concerns<\/p>\n

How does El Ni\u00f1o impact the global economy? <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o tends to slow down global economic growth and cause trillions in losses, primarily due to the fact that it triggers disruptive weather patterns that impact agriculture, infrastructure, and supply chains.<\/p>\n

In the years it forms, El Nin\u0303o triggers wide-ranging changes in weather and climate patterns that result in a potpourri of global disasters, including devastating floods, crop-killing droughts, plummeting fish populations and an uptick in tropical diseases worldwide, experts say.<\/p>\n

“El Ni\u00f1o is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns,\u201d said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, in a recent statement<\/a>. \u201cThe footprint of an El Ni\u00f1o travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions.\u201d<\/p>\n

How El Ni\u00f1o costs stack up <\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to recognize that the trillions in losses are not primarily due to immediate disaster damage. Mankin found in his research that these events are a persistent drag on economic growth.<\/p>\n

The hazards from El Ni\u00f1o, like droughts, floods, heat waves, and wildfires, trigger immediate damages, but the lasting costs come from what they do to the foundations of growth, such as:<\/p>\n

Agricultural losses that carry into later seasons<\/p>\n

Interrupted labor<\/p>\n

Interrupted schooling and childhood development, which surfaces in the workforce years later<\/p>\n

Disruption to commodities markets and the transport sector<\/p>\n

Investments that never happen because of the shock<\/p>\n

\"Although Although each El Ni\u00f1o can bring different impacts, this World Meteorological Organization graphic shows some of the worldwide impacts that could occur later in 2026. How costly will this El Ni\u00f1o be? <\/p>\n

“We know from observations that El Ni\u00f1os can cost the global economy trillions of dollars in damages and lost productivity,” Mankin told USA TODAY. “These costs accrue over years and disproportionately impact countries whose weather and climate is most tied to El Ni\u00f1o.”<\/p>\n

“We know that past El Ni\u00f1os, like the 1997-98, cost the economy over $7 trillion by 2003.”<\/p>\n

Mankin said that the current El Ni\u00f1o will cost trillions of dollars globally, with more than $1.8 trillion of that in the U.S. alone by 2032.<\/p>\n

Because we don\u2019t know precisely how strong this El Ni\u00f1o will become, he said, we don\u2019t know how costly it will be.<\/p>\n

\"El El Nino arrives: Satellite image shows warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures at the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean (depicted using various shades of red and orange for warmth) during the first week of June 2026. Could this El Ni\u00f1o be the most expensive ever? <\/p>\n

“In absolute dollar terms, yes, the current forecasts imply this could be the costliest El Ni\u00f1o on record,” Mankin said. “The current forecasts have El Ni\u00f1o strengthening to over 2 degrees C (3.8 degrees F), which is a very strong event if it pans out.”<\/p>\n

At the same time, he said the event is impacting a larger global economy than the last El Ni\u00f1o, so there is more to be damaged. Both of these factors are why the 1997-98 event cost more than 1982-83 one. But while a stronger event raises the odds and the probable scale of impact, the total won\u2019t be known for years because losses compound over time.<\/p>\n

“In terms of its relative impact (for instance, as a percent of the current global economy), it will really depend on how strong the event ends up being.”<\/p>\n

Some specific impacts to watch <\/p>\n

Low rainfall is bad news for some crops: “El Nino is likely to have a negative impact \u200bon crop yields in Southeast\u00a0Asia<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0India<\/a>, where El Nino is typically associated with below-normal rainfall,” said Kyle Tapley, enterprise sales executive at Vaisala Xweather’s WeatherDesk. Meanwhile,\u00a0Indonesian rice farmers<\/a>\u00a0are racing to get ahead of the usual planting schedule as they battle the \u200bthreat of a \u200blengthy dry spell \u2060this year.\u00a0Malaysia’s economic minister<\/a>\u00a0warned that El Ni\u00f1o could cause crop yields to fall by an average \u200bof 8% to 10% this year.<\/p>\n

Fertilizer shortages are a worry: \u201cA Super El Ni\u00f1o, combined with the current Middle East conflict and resulting fertilizer shortages, could have a multiplier effect on wheat, rice, and corn, which are already at risk due to reduced fertilizer availability during the planting season,” said Saskia van Gendt, chief sustainability officer with Blue Yonder, a supply chain management company, in an e-mail to USA TODAY. “This will result in near-term shortages and price increases, along with a prolonged\u00a0impact, since\u00a0these crops are used as animal feed and in processed foods.\u201d <\/p>\n

Flooding is also a concern in some areas: \u201cDuring El Ni\u00f1o, increased rainfall is predicted to increase flooding, which may slow transportation and result in higher transportation costs,” van Gendt said. “In other areas, El Ni\u00f1o may worsen droughts and restrict waterways. In 2023-2024, El Ni\u00f1o contributed to low water levels that limited passage through the Panama Canal.\u201d<\/p>\n

There is some good news. Some areas actually see an agricultural boost from El Ni\u00f1o: \u201cSome agricultural regions (eastern Brazil, Uruguay, Italy, Romania, and the Caspian Sea region) could see improved crop yields due to warmer temperatures and increased rainfall,” according to van Gendt. “Historically, soybean crop yields\u00a0have improved<\/a>\u00a0during El Ni\u00f1o events.\u201d<\/p>\n

And experts say the negative effects of El Ni\u00f1o won’t show up immediately. Van Gendt explains: \u201cIt usually takes several months for crop disruptions to translate into higher retail food prices, but consumers may experience earlier cost increases or combined cost increases due to fertilizer shortages. The\u00a0World Economic Forum<\/a>\u00a0predicts that current fertilizer shortages will take six months to a year to affect food supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

What is El Ni\u00f1o? <\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. El Ni\u00f1o and its counterpart, La Ni\u00f1a, can influence storms and weather patterns around the world, including hurricanes.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1os occur on average about every three to five years and vary in strength, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

Here in the United States, El Ni\u00f1os typically result in wetter, warmer winters for the West Coast and a milder hurricane season for the Atlantic seaboard.<\/p>\n

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Why El Ni\u00f1o threatens California\u2019s economy and supply chain<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Federal forecasters say El Ni\u00f1o is officially underway \u2014 and for California, that likely means a wetter, stormier…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":359430,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,10648,30771,131385,109259],"class_list":["post-359429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-el-nino","tag-global-economy","tag-justin-mankin","tag-supply-chains"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/359429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=359429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/359429\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/359430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=359429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=359429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=359429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}