\u201cThe upcoming El Ni\u00f1o event \u2014 which has a high likelihood of becoming very strong or even historic in magnitude \u2014 will likely lead to widespread and significant global impacts,\u201d he added. \u201cIt is possible, even probable, that at least some of these effects will be unprecedented in the modern era, given the combined effects of a high-end El Ni\u00f1o event plus over a century of accumulated global warming.\u201d<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impacts are usually felt strongest during the winter. Here are five major ways California could be affected.<\/p>\n
1. Wet and wild winter<\/p>\n
While it\u2019s no given, El Ni\u00f1o could open up the atmospheric floodgates in Southern California. <\/p>\n
Of the last four \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1os on record, two \u2014 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 brought coastal Southern California more than double its typical annual rainfall. Another, in 1991-92, brought 133% of the average, according to data provided by Jan Null, adjunct professor at San Jos\u00e9 State University. But the last one \u2014 in 2015-16 \u2014 did not meet expectations, with just 77% of the annual average rainfall in the Southland.<\/p>\n
According to NOAA, stormier weather is generally more likely in the southern United States during an El Ni\u00f1o. The Pacific Northwest, on the other hand, generally gets drier<\/a> winters.<\/p>\n \u201cA very strong El Ni\u00f1o event might well be the single most important predictor of substantially increased odds of unusually wet conditions, and increased likelihood of individual heavy precipitation events, in any given winter in California \u2014 and perhaps also an early warning indicator of increased risk of large-scale flood events,\u201d Swain wrote. <\/p>\n Despite the threat of floods, a wet winter could bring some relief to the Colorado River basin, which is in an \u201cexceptionally severe multi-decadal drought,\u201d Swain wrote. <\/p>\n 2. High-tide flooding<\/p>\n More high-tide flooding is possible in an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n \u201cElevated sea levels along the West Coast of the U.S. can occur, causing high tides and strong surf to ride higher and push much further inland than normal,\u201d NOAA said in a statement<\/a>. <\/p>\n Agency experts noted that the El Ni\u00f1os of 2015-16 and 2023-24 brought more frequent, deeper and widespread high-tide flooding, a risk made worse after decades of sea level rise<\/a>. <\/p>\n A man on a bike with his dog cross through a flooded Greenock Lane after the area was inundated during heavy surf at high tide on Dec. 28, 2023 in Ventura.<\/p>\n (Brian van der Brug\/Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o of 2015-16 brought \u201crecord coastal erosion along many California beaches,\u201d according to the California Coastal Commission.<\/p>\n \u201cMajor El Ni\u00f1o events can raise local sea level by around six to 10 inches in California during the winter rainy and stormy season through a combination of northward-propagating coastally-trapped Kelvin waves and thermal expansion of seawater,\u201d Swain wrote. \u201cSignificant coastal flooding is possible later this year.\u201d<\/p>\n 3. Warmer waters and temperatures<\/p>\n One of the ingredients of El Ni\u00f1o is triggered when the trade winds<\/a> in the Pacific Ocean \u2014 winds that reliably blow from east to west \u2014 weaken. That allows the sea level to rise a little bit, \u201cand it creates what we call a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave,\u201d said Jon Gottschalck, the Climate Prediction Center\u2019s operational prediction branch chief.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not an ocean wave at the surface but one that moves warmer water at the surface deeper down. And the wave \u201cwill bring warm water from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific,\u201d Gottschalck said. <\/p>\n The next ingredient to an El Ni\u00f1o is seeing how the movement of warmer water eastward changes wind patterns. <\/p>\n Warmer water moving from west to east also decreases the west-to-east winds, which then allows even more warmer western water to move toward the eastern Pacific. \u201cIt\u2019s kind of a positive feedback. And so once that occurred, the El Ni\u00f1o event will basically develop and intensify,\u201d Gottschalck said.<\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o-triggered warming of water off the coast of Mexico, Central America and northern South America then typically moves the atmospheric jet stream southward to the southern United States, \u201cwhich can bring wetter-than-normal conditions to our area\u201d in the winter, said Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o will probably contribute to more record-breaking global temperatures, Swain wrote. <\/p>\n (Paul Duginski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n 4. Sharks and other sea creatures<\/p>\n The warmer waters could attract additional seafaring tourists toward California\u2019s shores.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the near future, we may expect to see an increase in tropical or warm subtropical species, which may include increased shark sightings off of the Southern California coast,\u201d said Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific\u2019s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates. \u201cIn very rare cases, even whale sharks have visited off Catalina, including in the 2015-2016 El Ni\u00f1o events.\u201d<\/p>\n Marine mammals and other migratory species may also move closer to shore, \u201cbecause they\u2019re going to where their food is,\u201d said Andrew Leising, a research oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Southwest Fisheries Science Center.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o has in the past been associated with larger sablefish found closer to shore, and a higher larval abundance of rockfish.<\/p>\n Warmer ocean temperatures can also increase the presence of sea jellies<\/a> and other gelatinous creatures, Jaros said.<\/p>\n A jellyfish-like creature called Velella velella, also known as by-the-wind sailors<\/a>, can wash up on West Coast shores and are usually harmless to people. However, \u201cin past El Ni\u00f1o events, we\u2019ve seen similar-looking Portuguese man o\u2019 war, a very rare visitor to our waters, washing up on our beaches. These animals can have a very painful sting,\u201d Jaros said.<\/p>\n In a previous marine heat wave called \u201cThe Blob,\u201d which was followed by a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, scientists observed increased tuna come closer to shore, go farther north, \u201cand come in earlier than they do in other years, and so that actually leads to increases in fishing opportunity for those highly migratory and large game fish species,\u201d Leising said.<\/p>\n 5. But other sea life could struggle<\/p>\n While not solely the work of El Ni\u00f1o, warmer oceanic waters can wreak havoc on ocean life. <\/p>\n There are currently two marine heat waves unrelated to El Ni\u00f1o near California \u2014 one just off the state\u2019s southern coast that started in December, and another farther west off the coast of Northern California and Oregon that started in May, according to data shared by Leising.<\/p>\n There are two marine heat waves off the West Coast currently, neither of which are being influenced by El Ni\u00f1o at this time. One is just off the Southern California coast and another farther offshore and west of Northern California and Oregon. <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o also tends to cause marine heat waves, Leising said.<\/p>\n \u201cOne of the most important things, though, for the animals in the ecosystem is not necessarily just how hot it is \u2014 that is important in some cases \u2014 but just how long they\u2019re exposed to the heat,\u201d Leising said. \u201cWe have a situation, particularly in Southern California, where we\u2019ve already had this marine heat wave, and we\u2019re just gonna kind of roll on into a heat wave that\u2019s been brought about by El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n Past marine heat waves have decimated California\u2019s kelp, \u201cwith bull kelp habitats declining 90% in Northern California since 2014,\u201d Jaros said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe effects of this decline trickle down to other species, including endangered white abalone<\/a>. And warmer waters can exacerbate the effects of sea star wasting disease<\/a>, especially on the sunflower sea star, a population that\u2019s nearly been wiped out of California,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In past strong El Ni\u00f1os, scientists have observed decreased plankton \u2014 an important food source for marine animals \u2014 and an increased probability of harmful algal blooms.<\/a> <\/p>\n Previous strong El Ni\u00f1os have also brought a lower abundance, and a more northward shift, of market squid<\/a>, Leising said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe often have seen in the past with El Ni\u00f1os reduced productivity of California sea lions, and the pups are often smaller,\u201d Leising said.<\/p>\n![\"Man](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1781519231_294_.jpeg\")
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