The psyche of California consumers has seemingly come to grips with a stressful start to 2026, marked by a wobbly economy, a war, and a heated governor\u2019s race.<\/p>\n
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board\u2019s California consumer confidence index, comparing the average results for the year\u2019s first six months with those at the start of 2025, and reviewed the optimism benchmark\u2019s history dating back to 2007.<\/p>\n
The numbers show Golden State consumer confidence is up 1% over the past year \u2013 yet it\u2019s 5% below the 20-year average. Considering life\u2019s recent twists and turns \u2013 statewide, nationally and globally \u2013 that feels relatively buoyant.<\/p>\n
Remember, Donald Trump started his second presidential term in January 2025. Let\u2019s say his \u201cAmerica First\u201d economic views don\u2019t align well with California\u2019s more global orientation.<\/p>\n
Dare I mention this year\u2019s war with Iran as another source of tension? And let\u2019s not forget what those battles have meant to inflation, particularly what consumers spend for a gallon of gasoline.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just worldly anxieties. California leadership will see change, too. Gov. Gavin Newsom can\u2019t run again, so a new governor will be elected in November. Bruising primary races don\u2019t create confidence either.<\/p>\n
And the overall economy, statewide and nationally, seems iffy \u2013 minus some curious California-centric hotspots such as artificial intelligence and defense contracting.<\/p>\n
So, look inside the confidence index for two yardsticks that provide more insight into the thinking of California shoppers.<\/p>\n
The overall upheaval helps explain the \u201cpresent situation\u201d index \u2013 gauging current conditions \u2013 which is down 9% over the past year. Still, it runs 3% above average, suggesting personal finances may be slightly better than we think.<\/p>\n
The future seems curious. The \u201cexpectations\u201d index, which measures consumer outlook, is up 13% over the past year \u2013 suggesting that Californians have somewhat adapted to Trump\u2019s presidency and the upcoming statewide leadership change.<\/p>\n
However, it\u2019s not a rosy forecast. This index sits 12% below its long-run average.<\/p>\n
Nationally speaking<\/p>\n
The American consumer seems slightly more perplexed.<\/p>\n
The U.S. consumer confidence index is down 5% over the past year, with the index at mid-year 2026 running 1% below its 20-year average.<\/p>\n
The nationwide present situation measure is down 11% in a year \u2013 but it\u2019s still 14% above average.<\/p>\n
And American expectations have risen by 2% over the past year. And like in California, that\u2019s pretty dour: 13% below average.<\/p>\n
Stately sentiments<\/p>\n
A peek at optimism across the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board reveals a slightly divided America, with some short-term worries.<\/p>\n
Confidence indexes are down in five states in the past year.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Ohio: Off 13% in a year but 2% above average.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Michigan: Off 9% in a year but 12% above average.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Texas: Off 8% in a year and 7% below average.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Illinois: Off 4% in a year but 12% above average.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Pennsylvania: Off 1% in a year but 5% above average.<\/p>\n
Confidence rose in two states.<\/p>\n
\u2013 New York: Up 6% in a year and 18% above average.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Florida: Up 2% in a year and 13% above average.<\/p>\n
Considering the very different swings in optimism in Texas and Florida, confidence variations clearly aren\u2019t just about politics.<\/p>\n