here<\/a> \u2014 but only bringing in Nick Jensen isn\u2019t exactly going to stabilize things. The Ducks allowed the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five last year, and there\u2019s a real chance that, unless Mintyukov or Ian Moore take the next step, they\u2019ll be even worse. <\/p>\nBut what\u2019s compounding all of this is the $18 million elephant in the room. That is a whole lot of money, and likely the best outcome is Carlsson coming close to living up to it. However, the Ducks are in a no-win situation where they\u2019ll be significantly handcuffed if they match the offer sheet, and they\u2019ll be right back at square one without him. Top-line centers don\u2019t exactly grow on trees, let alone 21-year-old ones. <\/p>\n
With Carlsson on the ice at five-on-five, the Ducks owned 55.1 percent of the expected goals and had a plus-three goal differential. Without him, the Ducks dropped just below breakeven in expected goals and were a minus-22 in actual goals. Part of that difference in actual goals is because the Ducks\u2019 depth really struggled to finish last year, but it\u2019s hard to see them improve in that area by letting a 21-year-old who nearly scored 30 goals walk. <\/p>\n
The disparity was even bigger in the playoffs. Carlsson dominated his minutes in the playoffs to the tune of a 56.7 percent expected goal share and a plus-two goal differential while being a nearly point-per-game player. Meanwhile, the Ducks were outscored by eight goals and had a 43.9 percent expected goal share without him. As it stands, this team isn\u2019t equipped to be competitive without Carlsson. <\/p>\n
Carlsson\u2019s produced at a high rate, too. Carlsson\u2019s 2.95 points per 60 minutes at all strengths ranked eighth among U23 forwards last year, per Evolving-Hockey. Carlsson has the potential to be one of the best centers in the league, and the Flyers are obviously betting on that by attempting to pay him that much money. <\/p>\n
The Ducks simply have to match the offer sheet. It will be painful, possibly kneecap this rebuild\u2019s ceiling before it can really get going and set up Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke (eligible for a new deal next summer) to ask for even more money than originally planned. But losing Carlsson would set this team back even more. Four presumably late first-round picks aren\u2019t worth a 21-year-old franchise center, and the opportunity cost of finding another top-line center should be enough to sway the Ducks toward matching the offer. <\/p>\n
A top-line center is the hardest thing to find in hockey. There\u2019s a reason why the Ducks selected Carlsson with the second overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft and why the Flyers, a playoff team last year with a gigantic hole at center on their top line, are willing to pay Carlsson $18 million. Carlsson is the type of player that you can pretty much only find at the top of the draft, and it\u2019s incredibly difficult to acquire one via trade, even with four more first-round picks at your disposal. <\/p>\n
After finally making the playoffs again, Anaheim cannot afford to take a step back. Carlsson\u2019s new contract might make contending harder, but losing Carlsson means being stuck in no-man\u2019s land. The Carlsson-less Ducks aren\u2019t contenders, but they\u2019re also not going to be bad enough to be in lottery contention. Neither option is great, but one is obviously better than the other. <\/p>\n
Even before making their decision on Carlsson, the Ducks are already paying for their inaction. With the Ducks already in a salary cap bind and rumors of another offer sheet circling, Anaheim re-signed Mintyukov to a five-year deal worth $7.2 million per season. Mintyukov, the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, is now being paid like a true top-four defenseman, but he hasn\u2019t played like it yet. <\/p>\n
At 22, he still has time to put it all together, but Mintyukov has really struggled so far, especially defensively. Mintyukov was on the ice for the most expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five among Anaheim defenseman last season. While he\u2019s flashed some offensive and puck-moving talent, it hasn\u2019t been enough to offset the defensive shortcomings. He\u2019ll have plenty of opportunity on a thin Anaheim blue line this year, but he\u2019s now getting Brandt Clarke money while not having the same kind of offensive production or play-driving ability that Clarke has shown. <\/p>\n
The worst part of this deal? They traded the wrong defenseman. <\/p>\n
If the Ducks were looking for a young defenseman to keep around for a while that wouldn\u2019t cost an arm and a leg, they should\u2019ve just kept Olen Zellweger. Zellweger isn\u2019t a former top-10 pick, but he\u2019s shown that he can drive play at a decent rate. Zellweger is undersized and also struggles a bit in his own end, but he brings more offensively and wins his minutes. Most importantly, after getting traded to Buffalo, he re-signed there for three years at $3.1 million per season, a much more reasonable contract. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s poor asset management, but that\u2019s been par for the course for the Ducks over the past week. Even in a weak Pacific Division, there\u2019s a decent chance that they\u2019re a worse team than last year just because of how many players they\u2019ve lost and haven\u2019t replaced. As it stands, the Ducks have just over $9 million in cap space if they match Carlsson\u2019s offer sheet and still have Gauthier to sign. They\u2019ll have to trade away another veteran, like Chris Kreider, Alex Killorn or Frank Vatrano, just to stay under the cap. Further complicating matters is that all three players have partial no-trade clauses and that any team acquiring them knows that they\u2019ll have Anaheim over a barrel. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s a deep hole for Anaheim to dig itself out of and it\u2019s one that could have been avoided entirely. After several painful rebuilding years, general manager Pat Verbeek has to find a way to keep this team competitive. Otherwise, this rebuild will be doomed before it can even get off the ground. <\/p>\n
All stats are from Hockey Stats unless otherwise noted<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Heading into the offseason, the Anaheim Ducks were riding high. They had just returned to the playoffs for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":390406,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[163,165,164],"class_list":["post-390405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-anaheim","tag-anaheim","tag-anaheim-headlines","tag-anaheim-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=390405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/390406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=390405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=390405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=390405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}