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Across the San Francisco Bay Area, luxury homes are in such high demand, an increasing amount aren\u2019t making it to the open market.<\/p>\n
The biggest private-sale gainers were counties hugging the central bay and northern cities where AI companies have minted a new generation of wealthy buyers willing to pay whatever it takes.<\/p>\n
A TRD Data analysis of closed luxury residential sales (defined as $3 million or more) across two 12-month periods (May 15, 2024 \u2013 May 14, 2025 and May 15, 2025 \u2013 May 14, 2026) found that Alameda County\u2019s off-market volume surged 125 percent year over year, while San Francisco jumped 71 percent. Santa Clara was the lone holdout, slipping 5 percent.<\/p>\n
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The trend reflects a market reshaped by AI wealth. Flush with stock gains and startup payouts, wealthy buyers are chasing homes near the region\u2019s tech hubs. With thin inventory, many are striking deals before homes ever hit listings.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt blows my mind,\u201d said luxury broker Andrew Oldham of Compass\u2019s the Oldham Group. \u201cI don\u2019t know if there\u2019s ever been a time that I can remember where a home that\u2019s a $10 million home can sell off-market in a second.\u201d<\/p>\n
Oldham stated that wealth generated from the AI boom is creating more buyers in the $3 million and above range where private-luxury sales are the most common.<\/p>\n
No market illustrates that shift better than San Francisco. Off-market luxury volume climbed from $606 million to just over $1 billion in a year. Private deal count rose from 98 to 158, while the average transaction grew from $6.2 million to $6.6 million.<\/p>\n
In today\u2019s market, buyers with cash to spend aren\u2019t waiting for homes to appear. They are more than willing to move fast on locking up homes in areas like San Francisco where inventory is scarce even if that means paying a premium, according to Oldham.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s so much demand for these houses,\u201d said The Agency\u2019s luxury agent Tracy McLaughlin. \u201cSomebody begs you to get in \u2014t hey run in \u2014 they throw a bunch of money.\u201d<\/p>\n
The biggest city-level gains clustered along the Peninsula, where proximity to AI employers has become its own luxury amenity. Eight of the 13 cities were in that location.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Menlo Park, Palo Alto and San Mateo saw jumps of 31.7, 14.2 and 7.2 percent, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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But AI alone doesn\u2019t explain everything. Even in Silicon Valley, where AI wealth is plentiful, markets with more available inventory saw fewer buyers resort to private deals.<\/p>\n
Santa Clara\u2019s off-market volume slipped nearly 5 percent to $643.4 million. Cities within the county like Los Altos (-22.1 percent) and\u00a0 Mountain View (-40.6 percent) dropped the most, but that decline was not due to a weaker overall luxury market as all public and private listings increased from $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion county-wide.<\/p>\n
Inventory contributed to keeping a majority of Santa Clara luxury deals marketed, allowing buyers more options and sellers the freedom to opt for higher exposure on their asset.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cI think down in the South Bay, because of our market, I think there\u2019s a little bit less of a fear of missing out,\u201d said Coldwell Banker agent Andy Meunier, who sold over $100 million in the county over the past year.<\/p>\n