With just a high school diploma in hand, and no additional training or education, the average Californian is currently expected to earn about $18 an hour, or $36,000 a year \u2014 just above the state\u2019s minimum wage.<\/p>\n
Effective this month, all colleges, universities and short-term certificate programs in the U.S. must prove that their graduates earn at least the median wage of someone in their state with only a high school diploma. Otherwise, their students will soon become ineligible for federal loans.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a \u201clow bar,\u201d said Michael Itzkowitz, the president of the HEA Group, which conducts research into higher education policy. \u201cIf you\u2019re going to college, you expect to be earning at least minimum wage, and probably even more than that.\u201d<\/p>\n
In places such as the Bay Area, $36,000 a year barely covers housing, not to mention other expenses.<\/p>\n
Of the nearly 3,000 higher education courses of study in California evaluated by the U.S. Department of Education, roughly 90% of graduates earned at least that much, according to Itzkowitz\u2019s analysis<\/a>. But graduates of about 300 California programs \u2014 especially those in cosmetology, medical assisting, arts and theater \u2014 failed to earn $36,000 four years after graduating, his analysis found.<\/p>\n Most of the failing programs are at for-profit colleges, sometimes known as trade schools or career colleges, which have faced decades of scrutiny<\/a>, occasionally from lawmakers<\/a>, over poor outcomes<\/a> and high tuition costs. But courses of study at community colleges and four-year universities failed too, including theater and fine arts programs at eight California State University campuses and at three University of California campuses.<\/p>\n Schools still have at least two more years to prove to the federal government that graduates of these programs are meeting the new income standard. If trends at low-performing programs continue, their students could lose access to loans as soon as July 1, 2028.<\/p>\n CalMatters reached out to over 15 universities, community colleges and for-profit trade schools asking about the future of these programs with low-earning graduates, but few schools responded.<\/p>\n Spokespersons for the UC and Cal State systems both said that they\u2019re reviewing the new law <\/a>but declined to answer most other questions. Cal State spokesperson Amy Bentley-Smith said the campuses were seeking \u201cconstructive solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n One of the few schools that did respond was the California Institute of the Arts, a private arts school near Santa Clarita whose alumni include actor Don Cheadle, filmmaker and animator Tim Burton and comedian Paul Reubens, otherwise known as Pee-wee Herman.<\/p>\n Graduates of its fine arts, film and photography programs have some of the lowest earnings of any large bachelor\u2019s degree program in the state, just below $30,000 four years after finishing school.<\/p>\n In an interview, college officials offered a number of explanations, pointing to issues with the data and the ways that arts careers are different from more mainstream ones. Arts careers can take longer to build and many graduates intentionally forego more lucrative corporate opportunities, said Ranu Mukherjee, the dean of the college\u2019s film and video school.<\/p>\n Just over 30 fine arts, music, theater, film and photography programs in California fail the new earnings test.<\/p>\n Mukherjee said the school doesn\u2019t intend to close any of the affected programs, though she said it\u2019s important to communicate with students about what could happen in the future. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to imagine CalArts without an undergraduate film or arts program,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s in our name.\u201d<\/p>\n Roughly 100 other fine arts, music, theater, film and photography programs in California pass the new earnings requirement, according to current education department data. They include the film program at UC Berkeley and the fine arts programs at San Diego City College and the University of Southern California, where workers all report earning over $70,000 four years after graduating school.<\/p>\n Regulatory ping pong<\/p>\n Over the years, the federal government has tried, and often failed, to regulate college programs that offer poor returns on investment.<\/p>\n In 1989, the U.S. Department of Education banned colleges from distributing certain forms of federal aid if a large percentage of their students had defaulted on student loans in the past. The rule was effective at first, shutting down numerous low-performing schools, but over time loopholes emerged.<\/p>\n \u201cInstitutions have learned how to game the system,\u201d said Itzkowitz, adding that many schools encourage students with low earnings to put their loans into forbearance or deferment status, which delays payment. \u201cNo one fails.\u201d<\/p>\n