Every day, there are fresh news stories, breathless claims on social media and new questions and concerns from people wondering what it all might mean. That torrent of attention comes with lots of misinformation and misunderstandings, experts say<\/p>\n
Among the most common:<\/p>\n
1) El Ni\u00f1o is a big storm or something that is headed toward California<\/p>\n
\u201cI hear that one a lot,\u201d said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources division. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o does not arrive in California. It is a temporary warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Definitely, it is not something that can come to California.\u201d<\/p>\n
Simply put, El Ni\u00f1o events occur every 2 to 7 years when ocean waters along the equator off Peru become warmer than normal, affecting weather patterns across the globe. They begin when trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing cold, deep-ocean water from rising to the surface. The warmer surface waters become, the stronger the El Ni\u00f1o is considered. The opposite \u2014 a cooling of the ocean waters off South America \u2014 is called \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a.\u201d<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o events last for months and can often change the movement of the jet stream, pumping heat and moisture into the atmosphere and creating conditions that allow more winter storms to come to California, particularly Southern California, but also sometimes soaking the Bay Area and Sierra Nevada.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt can be associated with storms. But it isn\u2019t a storm,\u201d said John Monteverdi, professor emeritus of meteorology at San Francisco State University.\u00a0 \u201cThe storms are the result.\u201d<\/p>\n
2) El Ni\u00f1o guarantees wet winters in California<\/p>\n
This is a very common misconception, experts say. Since 1950, there have been 27 El Ni\u00f1os. Generally speaking, the stronger they are, the greater the likelihood of wet winters in California. Does that mean this winter is going to produce relentless storms and potential floods? History shows it\u2019s not a sure thing.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis far out, the needle is tilted toward a wetter-than-normal winter for California, especially for Southern California,\u201d said Jan Null, a former lead forecaster with the National Weather Service who now runs Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut it\u2019s not a guarantee.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Bay Area received above-average rainfall in 13 of those 27 El Ni\u00f1o winters, below-average rainfall in 9 and average rainfall in 5, according to Null\u2019s research. In Southern California, the connection is a little stronger: 17 of the 27 El Ni\u00f1o winters brought above-average rainfall, 7 were below-average, and 3 were average.<\/p>\n
Adding to the nuance, some of California\u2019s wettest winters, such as 2022-23 \u2014 the year when snowfall was so great it broke a three-year drought and Sierra Nevada ski resorts had to close for days because their chairlifts were buried in snow \u2014 weren\u2019t El Ni\u00f1o winters.<\/p>\n
What about when the ocean waters were warmest, like now? Those have happened four times. In two of the very strong El Ni\u00f1o years \u2014 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 the Bay Area, Southern California and much of the state experienced double their average annual rainfall, with regular downpours and some flooding. In another, 1991-92, the Bay Area was relatively dry, with 84% of normal rainfall, while Southern California was wet, with 133%. And in the most recent \u2014 2015-16 \u2014 the Bay Area had an average winter, and Southern California was drier than normal. Despite the event being heralded for months as a \u201cGodzilla El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d it was largely a bust, failing to end a prolonged drought.<\/p>\n
Think of it like a painting, said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.<\/p>\n
\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o gives you a preliminary sketch for what to expect for the upcoming seasons,\u201d she said. \u201cIt gives you the broad brushes. But the actual details of the portrait will be determined by events we cannot predict months in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"After](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/SJM-L-ELNINO-0512-1.jpg\")
After flooding from a big storm during an El Ni\u00f1o winter, Marcel Zuber checks his neighbor\u2019s car in the Golden Wheel Mobile Home Park on Oakland Road in San Jose, Calif. on Feb. 3, 1998. Zuber helped evacuate some of his neighbors in his boat, which he pulled through the flooded park. (Eugene Louie\/San Jose Mercury News)\u00a0<\/p>\n
3) Climate change causes El Ni\u00f1os<\/p>\n
\u201cNo,\u201d said Swain, the UC climate scientist. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is the classic example of a natural climate variation, unlike a human-caused one like climate change. It has probably occurred for millions of years since the continents were in their current configuration. But there are indications that El Ni\u00f1o events will change in a warming world.\u201d<\/p>\n
A chief example, he said, is that as the climate has warmed in recent years, hotter temperatures have made droughts and wildfires more severe. They have also raised the sea level by roughly 8 inches in Northern California and can cause powerful atmospheric river storms to soak up more water because warmer air holds more moisture.<\/p>\n
\u201cStorms are going to have a lot more moisture and energy during particularly strong El Ni\u00f1os,\u201d he said. \u201cA very strong El Ni\u00f1o will make it more likely the storm door in California stays open.\u201d<\/p>\n
4) Meteorologists are embracing the term Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n
Not really. Nor \u201cGodzilla El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe media creates terms to make things seem more exciting and different,\u201d said Monteverdi, the San Francisco State professor. \u201c\u2018Heat dome\u2019 and \u2018polar vortex\u2019 are also commonly misused. \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d has not been embraced in the scientific community. But, unfortunately, we are stuck with it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Officially, NOAA has four categories: weak, moderate, strong and very strong. When water temperatures are 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius (or 0.9 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, that\u2019s weak. When they are 1 to 1.5 Celsius warmer (1.8 to 2.7 Fahrenheit), that\u2019s moderate. From 1.5 to 2 degrees C is strong. Anything above 2-degrees C is very strong. Where are we now? Surface water conditions at the equator are currently 1.2 C warmer-than-normal and rising.<\/p>\n
The hottest they have ever reached in 1997-98 and 1982-83, surface temperatures peaked at 2.5 C above average. Swain noted that when the models from supercomputers from a variety of the world\u2019s top meteorological organizations \u2013 those in Europe, Japan and Canada, as well as NOAA in the US, and others \u2014 are combined, the forecast is for 3.0 to 3.5 degrees C above average by this December<\/p>\n
\u201cSome folks don\u2019t like the term \u2018super El Ni\u00f1o,’\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t see a problem with it if it\u2019s accurate. I think this is one of these cases. The current prediction is for the strongest on record. The models are suggesting we are in uncharted territory.\u201d<\/p>\n
5) El Ni\u00f1o only causes bad things to happen<\/p>\n
While El Ni\u00f1o can increase the odds of damaging storms in California, the way it shifts the jet stream can also cause record rainfall in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, and severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.<\/p>\n
Warmer and drier-than-average conditions are typical for the northernmost states in the U.S., while cooler, wetter temperatures are more likely in the South.<\/p>\n
Some positives can come from El Ni\u00f1o, scientists note. It tends to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and increase hurricane activity in the Pacific. That can be good for California, bringing monsoon-type rains into Southern California in late summer and early fall, which is what happened in August 2023 when the remnants of Hurricane Hilary dumped 2 to 5 inches of rain in one day across San Diego, Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat kind of ended Southern California fire season that year before the Santa Ana winds began,\u201d Swain said.<\/p>\n
Wet winters also fill reservoirs and end droughts.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not all bad,\u201d Null said. \u201cGlobally, there are areas that are normally parched and they can get good rainfall. Distribution is key. If the storms are spread out over a lot of days, it\u2019s not nearly as impactful.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Huntington](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/OCR-Z-ELNINO-UT-0518-07.jpg\")
Huntington Beach Pier and its End Cafe are destroyed by huge waves during a storm on March 1, 1983 during an El Ni\u00f1o winter. (Photo by H. Lorren Au Jr., Orange County Register\/SCNG)\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Along with \u201cWorld Cup\u201d and \u201cTaylor Swift wedding,\u201d it\u2019s one of the most trendy terms so far in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":403858,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[3928,7,161984,9,8,10648,161983,161982,2319],"class_list":["post-403857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-bay-area-weather","tag-california","tag-california-el-nino","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-el-nino","tag-el-nino-forecast","tag-is-there-an-el-nino","tag-weather-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=403857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403857\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/403858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=403857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=403857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=403857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}