The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said earlier this month there\u2019s a 97% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will be either \u201cstrong\u201d or \u201cvery strong\u201d<\/a> over a three-month period ending this December.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is associated with some of California\u2019s most memorably destructive winter seasons.<\/p>\n The strong El Ni\u00f1o of winter 2023-24 saw well above average rainfall across coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation in coastal Northern California, the state Department of Conservation said<\/a>.<\/p>\n During three of the four very strong El Ni\u00f1os in the global record, downtown Los Angeles received significantly more rain than average. In two \u2014 1982-83 and 1997-98 \u2014 downtown L.A. got more than double its usual yearly rainfall.<\/p>\n This year, forecasters are saying it may end up being one of the strongest such events on record.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s take a look at the weather phenomenon\u2019s potential effects.<\/p>\n What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a pattern that typically emerges every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, according to NOAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n It is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth<\/a>, capable of reshaping global weather and affecting rainfall and drought.<\/p>\n (Paul Duginski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n Although it\u2019s characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, it will also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming, Lin reports.<\/p>\n What are its potential impacts?<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o typically brings different weather effects across the world, depending on the season.<\/p>\n As warm water extends off Mexico, Central America and northern South American during an El Ni\u00f1o, that usually causes jet-stream energy in the atmosphere to bring more stormy weather than usual to the southern United States, including Southern California, Texas and Florida, during the winter, said Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.<\/p>\n For Southern California, it would mean a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of landslides and high-tide flooding.<\/p>\n The very strong El Ni\u00f1o of 2015-16 brought \u201crecord coastal erosion along many California beaches,\u201d the state Coastal Commission said.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o is expected to prolong an already existing marine heat wave \u2014 currently in effect for reasons unrelated to El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 off Southern California.<\/p>\n Scientists are also raising alarms over the effects of warmer ocean waters on ocean life.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the near future, we may expect to see an increase in tropical or warm subtropical species, which may include increased shark sightings off of the Southern California coast,\u201d said Nate Jaros, the Aquarium of the Pacific\u2019s vice president of animal care for fish and invertebrates. \u201cIn very rare cases, even whale sharks have visited off Catalina, including in the 2015-2016 El Ni\u00f1o events.\u201d<\/p>\n Marine mammals and other migratory species also may move closer to shore, \u201cbecause they\u2019re going to where their food is,\u201d said Andrew Leising, a research oceanographer at NOAA\u2019s Southwest Fisheries Science Center.<\/p>\n In past strong El Ni\u00f1os, scientists have observed decreased plankton \u2014 an important food source for marine animals \u2014 and an increased probability of harmful algal blooms.<\/a> <\/p>\n Previous strong El Ni\u00f1os also have brought a lower abundance, and a more northward shift, of market squid<\/a>, Leising told The Times.<\/p>\n \u201cWe often have seen in the past with El Ni\u00f1os reduced productivity of California sea lions,\u201d he added, \u201cand the pups are often smaller.\u201d<\/p>\n Here\u2019s more of our El Ni\u00f1o coverage:<\/p>\n A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o is brewing. Experts fear historic dangers from \u2018extraordinary\u2019 weather<\/a> <\/p>\n Strong El Ni\u00f1o now a virtual certainty, forecasters say. What it means for California<\/a> <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o has arrived: 5 ways California could get pummeled<\/a> <\/p>\n Today\u2019s top stories An 8-year-old boy was killed and four others injured after a head-on collision in Riverside on May 16, 2023.<\/p>\n (Gina Ferazzi\/Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n A proposed bill would allow insurers to track your driving habitsThe new Sacramento bill promises lower premiums<\/a> for drivers who opt in and prove safer habits over time, but privacy and consumer advocates warn the proposal forces motorists to choose between data protection and affordable coverage.Safety groups and a booming telematics<\/a> industry say the measure could reshape rates for 27 million California drivers.Why some patients are pushing to change Kaiser\u2019s medical dispute processThe 2026 World Cup was a rousing success for FIFA, U.S. and fansWhat else is going onCommentary and opinionsThis morning\u2019s must-readOther must-readsFor your downtime (Autumn Schrock \/ Visit Oxnard)<\/p>\n Going outStaying inA question for you: As temperatures rise in SoCal, how do you stay cool?<\/p>\n Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com<\/a>, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.<\/p>\n And finally … your photo of the day Shuting Zang, 28, is photographed on her wedding day at San Francisco City Hall, where Marilyn Monroe and Joe DiMaggio tied the knot in 1954.<\/p>\n (Sarahbeth Maney\/For The Times)<\/p>\n Today\u2019s great photo is from Times contributor Sarahbeth Maney at San Francisco City Hall, one of the most popular wedding venues in California<\/a>.<\/p>\n Have a great day, from the Essential California team<\/p>\n Hailey Branson-Potts, staff writer How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com<\/a>. Check our top stories<\/a>, topics<\/a> and the latest articles<\/a> on latimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s been a little over a month since El Ni\u00f1o arrived, and California may be in for a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":405257,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[7,9,8,2299,1085,891,2300,2297,340,2303,63,2302,1086,1459,2301,2298,74,225,315,688],"class_list":["post-405256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-civic-revolt","tag-covid","tag-covid-19","tag-days","tag-essential-california","tag-israel","tag-l-a","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-may","tag-pandemic","tag-part","tag-president-biden","tag-red-county","tag-san-diego","tag-state","tag-time","tag-years"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=405256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/405257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=405256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=405256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=405256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} <\/p>\n
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<\/a> <\/p>\n
Hugo Mart\u00edn, assistant editor, Fast Break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters<\/p>\n