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<\/a>Rumsey Fire and Highway 16\/Rumsey Canyon. Yolo County.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chute Fire (North Yuba River): Steep Canyons, Close Calls<\/p>\n In contrast, the\u00a0Chute Fire\u00a0in the\u00a0North Yuba River Canyon\u00a0(Nevada\/Yuba\/Placer Unit, California) shows where \u201cletting it burn\u201d is not a realistic option.<\/p>\n The fire is in some of the\u00a0steepest canyon terrain\u00a0in Northern California, near the\u00a0New Colgate Powerhouse\u00a0\u2013 an area The Lookout previously covered<\/a> after a major pipeline failure and flood.<\/p>\n The fire is a \u2018re-kindle\u2019 of a blaze which was declared \u2018contained\u2019 about a week ago. More broadly, in Sierra Nevada river canyons, fires tend either to be stopped very small, or they\u00a0escape and are finally checked on ridge tops, where roads and dozers make fire suppression efforts more plausible and safer.<\/p>\n We noted that overnight down\u2011canyon winds could easily change fire direction and push it upslope, and we are not confident the fire can be fully extinguished safely where it is. It may ultimately be fought at the top of the ridges, consistent with long\u2011term patterns in this geography.<\/p>\n Rock Fire (Inyo County)<\/p>\n The\u00a0Rock Fire\u00a0in\u00a0Inyo County, California, near\u00a0Highway 395\u00a0south of Big Pine, quickly grew to about\u00a02,500 acres\u00a0in\u00a0wind\u2011driven sage and scrub.<\/p>\n As of mapping, it had\u00a0not crossed Highway 395. The area has a decent network of roads and relatively simple fuels, but\u00a0local firefighting capacity is limited, forcing long\u2011distance engine responses from places like San Bernardino.<\/p>\n These Owens Valley fires often\u00a0run hard with strong winds, then become more manageable once nighttime cooling reduces wind and activity.<\/p>\n Biscar Fire & the Cheatgrass Problem in the Great Basin<\/p>\n North of\u00a0Honey Lake\u00a0on the California\u2013Nevada border, the\u00a0Biscar Fire\u00a0is burning in\u00a0sagebrush and desert rangeland, in a landscape still shaped by the\u00a0Rush Fire (2012).<\/p>\n That event converted large swaths of\u00a0sagebrush\u00a0into\u00a0cheatgrass, changing fire behavior. Sagebrush grows patchy, and fire burns slowly through fields of it. Meanwhile, cheatgrass is a continuous, light, flashy fuel that allows for fire to move rapidly.<\/p>\n The Biscar is 30,000 acres\u00a0by official numbers, potentially more by satellite, and is likely a\u00a0low priority due to scarce suppression resources. Sparse population and low\u2011value rangeland mean more populated areas will win the competition for aircraft and crews.<\/p>\n Biscar exemplifies a\u00a0feedback loop: fire converts sage to cheatgrass, cheatgrass promotes more frequent fire, and remaining sage islands are slowly erased.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n East Evans Creek Road Fire, Oregon: Tough Ground, Fire Advances Steadily<\/p>\n Near\u00a0Medford, Oregon, the East Evans Creek Road Fire\u00a0continues in\u00a0rugged terrain.<\/p>\n Recent infrared shows:<\/p>\n About\u00a01,000 acres of growth over two days, mainly in two evening ~ 500 acre runs on the Board Mountain part of the fire. Lidar imagery underscores that this is\u00a0not dozer\u2011friendly country. Even with strong structure prep and some moderation in daily fire behavior, the incident remains\u00a0highly dependent on weather, especially evening winds that can drive sudden runs.<\/p>\n There is now dozer line around the southern-most finger on Board Mountain.<\/p>\n Eastern Oregon: Akawa Butte, Coyote, Rowe Creek Complex<\/p>\n In interior Oregon, multiple\u00a0large lightning\u2011caused fires\u00a0continue to expand.<\/p>\n Akawa Butte Fire: Big Push, Open Flank<\/p>\n The\u00a0Akawa Butte Fire\u00a0has made\u00a0multi\u2011mile runs, including about\u00a0three miles in one day. Ops maps show:<\/p>\n Dozer line and some containment\u00a0around the\u00a0north end and part of the south flank. The fire has burned around an 18\u2011year\u2011old burn scar, which slowed that portion of the fire\u2019s spread, but did not halt it\u2019s southward march.\u00a0 Areas outside the yellow line, on map above, spread actively on 7\/20.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Rowe Creek Complex now exceeds\u00a0130,000 acres, with spread shaped by:<\/p>\n Natural barriers like barren areas and roads. The\u00a0Coyote Fire\u00a0illustrates the recurring pattern: large fires\u00a0both create and encounter burn scars that become key features of the next incident. Eastern Oregon is a vast \u201cpuzzle\u201d of overlapping fire histories, where today\u2019s perimeter becomes tomorrow\u2019s de facto fuel break.<\/p>\n Aspen Acres Fire Makes a Run<\/p>\n In\u00a0Colorado, the\u00a0Aspen Acres Fire\u00a0has burned about\u00a0100,000 acres\u00a0over several weeks. Most of the perimeter is secure, but one\u00a0stubborn southwest section\u00a0has resisted full suppression and made a\u00a0major run\u00a0on July 20, producing a towering plume and again threatening the\u00a0Lake Isabel\u00a0area.<\/p>\n We have seen a pattern of intermittent flare\u2011ups on this portion of the fire over the past two weeks, as heat pockets in difficult terrain keep coming to life when the weather gets dry enough, or east winds blow. Aspen Acres underpins our recent essay Unfair Math: Weighing Firefighter Safety Against Everything Else<\/a>:<\/p>\n Fire managers knew that\u00a0early direct attack on the problematic slope west of Route 165 might have saved money and reduced the longterm disruptions to the area caused by an ongoing wildfire. The fire illustrates the hard reality that there are\u00a0limits to what aircraft and human crews can do to stop wildfires burning under extreme weather conditions, with heavy fuel loads, or in certain terrain, even when everyone sees the future risk coming.<\/p>\n The fire also spread west on St. Charles Peak, crossing roads which had been prepped for use as firelines. As early as 7\/5\/2026, the Alaska Incident Management Team had briefed the public that preparing an indirect fire attack on this ridge was going to entail a 2 week logging operation, and would likely fail anyway.<\/p>\n The spread about Lake Isabel is also driven largely by spotting. Controlling a fire like this requires large-scale firing operations off of prepared roads, firelines, or dozer lines.<\/p>\n Kaiser Canyon (Colville Reservation)<\/p>\n Burning on the\u00a0Colville Reservation in Eastern Washington, the Kaiser Canyon Fire has been the most destructive incident\u00a0in the PNW region this year.<\/p>\n Recent mapping shows\u00a0growth beyond its earlier perimeter, with new heat outside the previous line.<\/p>\n While it hasn\u2019t been the focus of as much media attention as the larger Oregon and Colorado fires, it is\u00a0significantly impacting tribal lands and values, and illustrates how this fire bust is stretching resources across multiple states even away from the high\u2011profile headlines.<\/p>\n Weather: High Pressure, Tropical Moisture, Smoke, and Uncertainty<\/p>\n The atmospheric pattern over the West is unusually complex:<\/p>\n A broad\u00a0high\u2011pressure ridge\u00a0dominates the interior West, driving\u00a0heat and stagnation. Bring some\u00a0cooling to California mid\u2011week. At the same time,\u00a0smoke trapped under high pressure\u00a0is shading large areas of Eastern Oregon and beyond, which can\u00a0reduce daytime fire intensity, but makes weather models less reliable. The pressure pattern also favors episodes of offshore\/continental winds\u00a0\u2013 dry air flowing from interior deserts toward the coast \u2013 a familiar recipe for volatile fire behavior.<\/p>\n Forecast confidence is limited\u00a0when smoke, tropical moisture, and strong heat all interact; even seasoned meteorologists are openly cautious about specifics.<\/p>\n Can Akawa Butte Reach Sisters, Oregon?<\/p>\n An audience question focused on whether the\u00a0Akawa Butte Fire\u00a0could reach\u00a0Sisters, Oregon, a rapidly growing community with substantial\u00a0fuel thinning\u00a0around its perimeter.<\/p>\n Our assessment:<\/p>\n Under the\u00a0previous two day\u2019s conditions, the fire advanced about\u00a0four miles\u00a0and is now roughly\u00a04 miles from the edge of developed areas. Thinning and mitigation work around the town should help if fire approaches, but they are\u00a0not guarantees. Residents anywhere close to\u00a0a large, active fire\u00a0should stay alert to official updates and\u00a0improve defensible space\u00a0while conditions allow.<\/p>\n Wildlife, Fire Ecology, and the \u201cPuzzle\u201d of Repeated Burns<\/p>\n Many species in fire-affected landscapes are well adapted to fire:<\/p>\n Grass and brush fires often move in\u00a0brief pulses; intense heat is short\u2011lived. Large burn scars across Oregon and elsewhere frequently become future containment features, slowing the next fire and contributing to a long\u2011term mosaic of burned and unburned patches.<\/p>\n Fuel Treatments, Chaparral, and Misused Metrics<\/p>\n A discussion of\u00a0fuel treatments, especially in chaparral, closes the briefing.<\/p>\n The recent\u00a0Williams Fire\u00a0on the Central Coast raced through mature\u00a0chamise but stalled at a\u00a0fuel break\u00a0on a ridge, showing that\u00a0ridge\u2011top chaparral treatments can be tactically effective.<\/p>\n But we challenge the emphasis on \u201cacres treated\u201d as the main success metric in evaluating progress toward a more fire-resilient California. Treating vast acreages in remote locations may barely reduce risk to communities. Smaller, well\u2011placed projects, such as fuel breaks, can be extremely effective if they are located directly adjacent to communities.<\/p>\n There is also a policy clash:<\/p>\n Critics rightly warn that\u00a0chaparral treatments\u00a0can lead to\u00a0invasive grasses\u00a0like cheatgrass and red brome, which burn more frequently and harm biodiversity. The key message:\u00a0context matters. Different ecologies, settlement patterns, and histories demand different approaches. One\u2011size\u2011fits\u2011all ideologies fail in a landscape as varied as the American West.<\/p>\n<\/a>Fire overlaps in Rumsey Canyon area (large fires only, blue =1, red = 5-6 fires in past 100 years)<\/p>\n
\nIt perked back up on the morning of 7\/20.
\nThroughout the day on 7\/20, there was heavy use of helicopters, retardant, and ground crews.
\nFirefighters had to rapidly withdraw at one point in the afternoon as conditions became life\u2011threatening.
\nThe canyon\u2019s\u00a0up\u2011canyon winds by day and down\u2011canyon winds at night, coupled with very steep slopes and a lack of roads for access, make direct attack extremely dangerous.<\/p>\n<\/a>Chute Fire at 8am, 7\/21\/2026
\n<\/a>Chute Fire as mapped at 3:30pm, 7\/20\/2026<\/p>\n<\/a>Rock Fire, mapped in the evening of 7\/20\/2026.<\/p>\n<\/a>Biscar Fire satellite heat, with historic fire overlaps. Blue area is 2012 Rush Fire.<\/p>\n
\nA stubborn southern flank with\u00a0steep slopes, rock outcrops, and few roads.<\/p>\n<\/a>Recent advances on the Board Mountain portion of the fire \u2013 white line \u2013 night of 7\/18. Yellow line night of 7\/19, red line night of 7\/20.
\n<\/a>7\/21 Ops map shows dozer line around the southern flank of the Board Mtn Fire.<\/p>\n
\nA large\u00a0open, uncontained area on SW flank where the fire recently blew out.<\/p>\n<\/a>7\/21 Ops map shows dozer line around much of the Akawa Butte Fire, except the most active, SW flank. Red\/white line is field mapping from 7\/20.
\n<\/a>Mapping from night of 7\/20 shows significant fire spread to south on Akawa Butte Fire. White line \u2013 night of 7\/18. Yellow line night of 7\/19, red line night of 7\/20.<\/p>\n<\/a>The Akawa Butte Fire has spread 4 miles south in the past 2 days (white line), and is now about 4 miles from developed areas on the north of Sisters.
\nRowe Creek Complex & Coyote<\/p>\n
\nGrasslands that can slow the fire when overnight humidity raises fine fuel moisture in dead grass above burnable levels
\nRecent burn scars that reduce available fuel.
\nTargeted firing operations where access allows.<\/p>\n<\/a>Satellite heat detections show the Rowe Canyon Complex (130,000 acres) has largely run out of gas (almost no new heat detections), and the Box Springs Fire to SW is kicking ass, with lots of red (new detections).
\n<\/a>Coyote Fire has limited new activity on SW, and has run into recent (since 2020) fires, shown in blue.<\/p>\n<\/a>Current Central Oregon Fires, with historic fires since 1980. (Dark blue, light blue, green, yellow, orange, for each decade, going backwards from present)<\/p>\n<\/a>7\/20 new spread on Aspen Acres Fire, above Lake Isabel.<\/p>\n
\nBut the\u00a0terrain made safe direct attack impossible, and the risk to crews could not be justified.<\/p>\n<\/a>Fire spread over indirect control lines near St. Charles Peak.
\n<\/a>-R\u2013R\u2013 = Prepped roads. Heavy spotting makes this fire almost impossible to control with firelines.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a>Kaiser Canyon Fire. Yellow dots are structures. New spread is areas outside of yellow lines.<\/p>\n
\nTropical Storm Elida\u00a0off the Pacific is expected to\u00a0curve north\u00a0and interact with a\u00a0large Gulf of Alaska low.
\nCombined, they are likely to:<\/p>\n
\nKeep the\u00a0Pacific Northwest hot near term.
\nDraw\u00a0moisture into western Oregon by the weekend.
\nProduce a\u00a0significant dry lightning threat\u00a0Tuesday\u2013Wednesday.<\/p>\n
\nAnother\u00a0two to three days\u00a0of similar conditions could, in principle, bring it to the edge of Sisters.
\nHowever,\u00a0no evacuations are in place for Sisters\u00a0as of this briefing, indicating incident teams and local officials do\u00a0not see a near\u2011term, high\u2011probability threat. Please note that this is as of 7\/20\/26 at 7 pm PT.<\/p>\n
\nAnimals can\u00a0retreat, burrow, or move into the black soon after the fire front passes.
\nHigh\u2011severity timber fires can be deadly, but\u00a0rangeland fires\u00a0are often patchier.<\/p>\n
\nBut those critiques are sometimes\u00a0overapplied\u00a0to oppose\u00a0all fuel treatments, even in forest types where\u00a0thinning and prescribed fire\u00a0are ecologically appropriate and reduce severe fire risk.<\/p>\n