The gasoline-price rollercoaster is taking another upward climb in the wake of airstrikes in and around Iran and escalating geopolitical tensions, resulting in a sharp increase at the pump for San Diego drivers.<\/p>\n
\u201cUntil we get some sort of clarity on the situation and, let\u2019s call it a clear finish line as to when this is over, you can only say what you think might happen in the short term,\u201d said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst for Dow Jones Energy<\/a>.<\/p>\n The average price for a gallon of regular in the San Diego area has jumped 15 cents in the past week to $5.593 on Tuesday, according to AAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n The average price of diesel has accelerated even faster, shooting up 26 cents compared to one week ago to $6.76 per gallon. Diesel prices are critical because trucks and ships that deliver goods to markets and food to grocery stores run on diesel fuel and when those transportation costs increase, they are passed on to consumers and contribute to inflation.<\/p>\n Average gasoline prices in San Diego \u201cprobably won\u2019t hit $6 a gallon, based on where things stand at this moment,\u201d said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy<\/a>. \u201cI would say that for the rest of the summer, you\u2019ll probably be in a range of $5.25 to $5.75 a gallon \u2026 But there is still the potential that (military) escalations occur and we could go outside of either side of that range, with more risk on the upside.\u201d<\/p>\n Nationally, the average price for a gallon of gas has taken a corresponding jump, rising 16 cents in the past week. The U.S. average stood at $4.019 on Tuesday.<\/p>\n That\u2019s $1.50 less expensive than California\u2019s statewide average, as per AAA<\/a>. The Golden State is No. 1 in the nation, with Hawaii coming in second place at $5.431 per gallon.<\/p>\n Fuel and crude oil prices started to rise after the U.S. and Israeli forces launched joint airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The Iranian regime responded by choking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world\u2019s oil exports traverse<\/a>.<\/p>\n A 60-day memorandum of understanding<\/a> was reached between Iran and the Trump administration last month, and gas prices started retreating as an increasing number of ships passed through the strait.<\/p>\n But the truce didn\u2019t last long.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s Islamic Republic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship<\/a> on June 25. The Trump administration responded by directing retaliatory airstrikes and tensions have escalated since then.<\/p>\n Two U.S. soldiers died Friday after an Iranian attack on a military installation in neighboring Jordan and another died in Iraq on Saturday.<\/p>\n There are reports<\/a> of tentative talks on a 10-day ceasefire but things remain touch-and-go, with fears that the conflict \u2014 now in its fifth month \u2014 will draw in other countries across the Middle East. Houthi rebels in Yemen who are aligned with Iran have threatened a naval blockade<\/a> of Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n The price of Brent crude \u2014 the international benchmark in the futures market \u2014 hit a five-week high<\/a> of $91 a barrel on Tuesday morning.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s another reason why fuel prices are rising.<\/p>\n Ukraine recently carried out successful drone attacks on Russian fuel refineries and power facilities. The strikes have degraded Russia\u2019s domestic oil production and led the Kremlin on July 9 to decree a ban on all its diesel exports<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is now turning into a two-pronged story of not just the Strait of Hormuz, but also Ukraine indiscriminately attacking Russian oil refineries,\u201d DeHaan said.<\/p>\n But if the U.S. already has sanctions in place<\/a> against Russian crude oil and refined products, why would that affect diesel and gasoline prices in the U.S. in general and California in particular?<\/p>\n \u201cBecause the world in intertwined,\u201d DeHaan said. \u201cWhen refining capacity goes down in one area of the world \u2026 refining capacity elsewhere needs to fill the void. But you can\u2019t make up for the void this time because refineries are already running full-tilt in the summer and Russia is a major refiner. There\u2019s nowhere that you can just come up with 3 million barrels of additional refining capacity overnight.\u201d<\/p>\n Fuel markets are very tight now, but Cinquegrana of Dow Jones Energy said drivers in San Diego and the U.S. should not worry about fuel supply shortages.<\/p>\n California is \u201ca little bit more difficult, but you could see barrels come down from the Pacific Northwest on ships,\u201d he said. \u201cMaybe Southern California\u2019s a little bit tighter, you could see barrels come from Northern California on barges as well.\u201d<\/p>\n California is more vulnerable to disruptions in the global oil market than other states.<\/p>\n According to the California Energy Commission,\u00a061.1% of the oil supplied to refineries in the state<\/a> last year came from foreign sources \u2014 and that figure is expected to grow\u00a0because of a pair of recent refinery closures.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Phillips 66 twin facility in the Los Angeles area<\/a> shut down late last year and three months ago the Valero refinery in the Northern California town of Benicia ceased operations<\/a>\u00a0at its 145,000 barrels-per-day site.<\/p>\n The Valero and Phillips 66 facilities combined to account for about 18% of California\u2019s total refining capacity to process gasoline, diesel, aviation and other transportation fuels.<\/p>\n Over the course of the war with Iran, the highest average price in San Diego reached $6.213 on May 6.\u00a0But that\u2019s not the all-time high for the area.<\/p>\n