The immediate images are familiar to Australians: towering smoke columns and orange skies. But these wildfires are not simply the result of hot summer weather. They are driven by a chain of interacting climatic, environmental and human factors. <\/p>\n
In Australia, a powerful El Ni\u00f1o and the possible emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole would bring drier, warmer weather. This could create similarly dangerous conditions in southern and eastern Australia this spring and summer.<\/p>\n
A hot, dry landscape primed to burn<\/p>\n
In southern California<\/a>, persistent drought, abundant grass growth and low coastal moisture have accelerated the drying of vegetation. In the north of the state<\/a>, early\u2013season dryness and the development of \u201cflash drought<\/a>\u201d conditions have pushed some landscapes towards critical fire danger.<\/p>\n As temperatures rise, warm air can draw more moisture from plants and soils<\/a>. This means that even if it rains, vegetation cannot replace the water it loses. Even living plants can dry enough to burn fiercely.<\/p>\n Warm nights \u2014 a product of global heating<\/a> \u2014 are another concern. Previously, cool and humid overnight conditions give firefighters a chance to strengthen containment lines. When nights remain hot and dry, fires can burn around the clock<\/a>.<\/p>\n A fire helicopter drops water over flames as crews battle a wildfire named as \u2018Little Fire\u2019 in Alameda County, California on July 21, 2026. Strong winds and a century of fire suppression<\/p>\n Heat and drought create flammable landscapes, but wind often determines whether a fire becomes a disaster. As we witnessed with the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires<\/a> in January 2025, California\u2019s mountain ranges, valleys and passes can funnel winds. <\/p>\n The significance of wind was clear in the present fires in eastern California, where erratic winds contributed to rapid fire spread around the Highway 395 corridor<\/a>.<\/p>\n California\u2019s rugged terrain also makes wildfires more difficult to control<\/a>. Flames generally travel faster uphill because heat rises and preheats vegetation above the fire. Steep slopes also restrict access for firefighting vehicles and ground crews.<\/p>\n In some forests, decades of fire suppression<\/a> have contributed to dense undergrowth and accumulations of fallen timber. Frequent, relatively mild fires once removed some of this material. Where wildfire has been excluded, vegetation may form \u201cladder fuels<\/a>\u201d that carry flames from the forest floor into the tree canopy.<\/p>\n Climate change is loading the dice<\/p>\n Fires can begin through lightning, machinery, vehicles, power lines, campfires or deliberate acts. Climate change creates a warmer background climate in which fuels dry more quickly and remain dry for longer.<\/p>\n The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> reports climate change has become one of the dominant drivers of the increase in fire weather conditions across the western United States. <\/p>\n Research has also identified<\/a> an increase of about 25 days in the annual fire season when dangerous fire conditions occur simultaneously across large areas of the western United States. This raises the possibility of several major fires competing for aircraft, firefighters and emergency resources at the same time.<\/p>\n Climate change is loading the dice towards more dangerous fire weather<\/a> globally, even though weather, ignition and land management still determine the behaviour of individual fires.<\/p>\n California\u2019s wildfire risk is also increasing because homes and infrastructure continue to expand into the wildland\u2013urban interface<\/a>: the zone where towns and suburbs meet forests, grasslands and shrublands.<\/p>\n Australia\u2019s warning from across the Pacific<\/p>\n The Californian wildfires carry a clear warning for southern and eastern Australia<\/a> as spring and summer approach.<\/p>\n The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed on 14 July that El Ni\u00f1o is underway<\/a>, with oceanic and atmospheric indicators showing a well\u2013established event. Most climate models indicate that El Ni\u00f1o will strengthen and persist until at least the austral summer, with a high likelihood of becoming a very strong event and potentially ranking among the strongest observed since 1950<\/a>.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o commonly reduces winter and spring rainfall across eastern Australia and is associated with warmer daytime temperatures in southern Australia. Its effects vary between events, however. The strength of an El Ni\u00f1o does not translate directly into the severity of drought or bushfire<\/a>.<\/p>\n Also of interest is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)<\/a>. In mid\u2013July it remained neutral, indicating that sea\u2013surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean were close to their long\u2013term average and that a positive IOD had not yet developed.<\/p>\n During a positive IOD, waters near Indonesia and north\u2013western Australia are cooler than normal, while the western tropical Indian Ocean becomes warmer. This tends to shift tropical rainfall westwards<\/a> and reduce the moisture available to rain\u2013bearing systems across southern and south\u2013eastern Australia.<\/p>\n If a strong El Ni\u00f1o and positive IOD develop together, their drying influences could reinforce one another during late winter and spring<\/a>.<\/p>\n How we should respond<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/file-20260724-57-cqmyiq.jpg\")
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\n Tayfun Coskun\/Getty<\/a><\/p>\n