California optimism continues to rise, while pessimism brews nationally.<\/p>\n
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board\u2019s consumer confidence indexes<\/a> to see how the three months through July compared with the previous year and optimism swings since 2007. It found California confidence was up 5% over the past year and only 3% below average.<\/p>\n That buoyancy might raise some eyebrows, given that the world is on edge, with a war in Iran rattling the economy and rekindling inflation. And let\u2019s not forget the political guessing game: Come 2027, who will run Congress and who will be California\u2019s next governor?<\/p>\n So, what exactly goes into this confidence index recipe?<\/p>\n First up is California\u2019s present situation index, which takes the temperature of how things feel right now. It\u2019s slipped 2% over the past year. In other words, the economy is giving off a \u201cmeh\u201d vibe.<\/p>\n But since this index is still 8% above its 20-year average, California shoppers can see the business climate is holding up better than it may feel.<\/p>\n The other slice of the confidence index shows Californians are curiously upbeat about the future.<\/p>\n The expectations index \u2013 gauging thoughts on what\u2019s ahead \u2013 is decidedly bullish: Up 13% in a year. But that\u2019s off serious lows, as the measure remains 12% below its 20-year average.<\/p>\n Look, wars always push up skittishness, and high gasoline prices hurt the wallet \u2013 if not the economic psyche.<\/p>\n But Golden State confidence may be tied to California\u2019s bosses, who were adding jobs slowly but far faster than the rest of the nation<\/a> in early 2026.<\/p>\n Look, we\u2019re talking about the world\u2019s fourth-largest economy, according to one count<\/a>, where business output was booming<\/a> as a flood of venture capital<\/a> revitalized the state\u2019s tech industry.<\/p>\n Yet given the big gap between President Donald Trump\u2019s focus on homegrown economics and California\u2019s eyes on the world, these good economic vibes from the Golden State are a real surprise.<\/p>\n Nationally speaking<\/p>\n Across the country, American consumers seem jittery.<\/p>\n The U.S. consumer confidence index is down 6% over the past year to a level 1% below the average grade since 2007.<\/p>\n Clearly, Americans are unhappy with current conditions. The nationwide present situation index is off 12% in a year. However, it sits 11% above its 20-year average.<\/p>\n But don\u2019t expect a quick turnaround. The U.S. expectation index has barely budged, up just 1% over the past year, and it\u2019s still 11% below average.<\/p>\n Others\u2019 optimism<\/p>\n None of the other seven states the Conference Board tracks saw a mid-2026 optimism boost like California\u2019s.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how those states stack up on confidence swings, both recent and compared with their usual mood, ranked by one-year change through July:<\/p>\n \u2013 New York: Up 1% in a year and 21% above average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Illinois: Flat in a year and 16% above average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Pennsylvania: Flat in a year and 7% above average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Texas: Off 4% in a year and 6% below average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Florida: Off 8% in a year but 4% above average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Michigan: Off 8% in a year but 19% above average.<\/p>\n \u2013 Ohio: Off 16% in a year and 7% below average.<\/p>\n Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com<\/a><\/p>\n