The Strait of Hormuz is, by some accounts, named for a Zoroastrian deity destined to emerge victorious after a 9,000-year standoff with an adversary.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s leaders feel their own victory is at hand and won\u2019t require the same epic patience.<\/p>\n
They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy \u2014 and that time is on their side.<\/p>\n
They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and may require American ground troops. They know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another major trade route.<\/p>\n
By that logic, President Trump has no choice but to capitulate.<\/p>\n
But Iran\u2019s strategy carries risks.<\/p>\n
Trump points to strikes that have decimated Iran\u2019s top leadership, navy and air force. He alternates between threatening escalation and saying talks are going well. Iran\u2019s own economy has been battered, in part due to a U.S. blockade. Iranians rose up in mass protests just months ago and could do so again.<\/p>\n
And Iran\u2019s leaders need only look to how Trump\u2019s \u201cshort-term excursion\u201d to the Middle East has been bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn out as expected.<\/p>\n
Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the two countries. But it would be conditioned on the U.S. lifting its blockade, so even if there are no direct negotiations \u2014 as Iran says \u2014 Trump would have to approve.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s unclear whether the deal would allow Iran to charge fees. But it would formalize the country\u2019s control over what had been an open international waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world\u2019s traded oil and gas.<\/p>\n
Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran\u2019s effective control of the strait has given it leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee its security.<\/p>\n
\u201cMore than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,\u201d he said by phone from Tehran.<\/p>\n
Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish some of its various and shifting goals in the war.<\/p>\n
It would also deal a blow to global norms on freedom of navigation and set a precedent that much of the world would find disturbing \u2014 that nations can shut down trade choke points at will.<\/p>\n
China, which buys oil from Iran and has influence over it, said as recently as May that \u201cnormal and safe passage\u201d through the strait should be restored.<\/p>\n
To borrow a phrase from a Trump discussion of geopolitics, Iran believes it holds the cards.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends,\u201d Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iran\u2019s chief negotiator, posted on social media. \u201cIran is going after the enemy\u2019s defeat \u2014 not an agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July \u201ccompensated\u201d for a drop in oil prices. That contributed to the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June that had offered significant concessions to Iran, including a U.S. waiver to sell oil internationally and the promise of broader sanctions relief.<\/p>\n
Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to being an open waterway, and that it will keep attacking ships trying to transit without its permission. Iran\u2019s joint military command has called it an \u201cunbreakable red line.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cFor Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf,\u201d said Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst.<\/p>\n
That poses a major obstacle to ending the war, not to mention resolving the even more complex, long-standing dispute over Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran\u2019s interests,\u201d said Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst. Control of the strait would give Iran leverage if the nuclear talks resume, he added.<\/p>\n
The economic fallout from the war has spread worldwide but is particularly acute in Iran.<\/p>\n
U.S. and Israeli strikes have pummeled its industrial base. The U.S. blockade has choked off much of its oil exports. Iranians are grappling with triple-digit food inflation. Trump has repeatedly threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure such as water and electricity.<\/p>\n
In December, a currency crisis sparked some of the biggest antigovernment protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic Republic. Authorities responded with a bloody crackdown in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.<\/p>\n
Many in Iran, including those close to its moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, fear it may go too far.<\/p>\n
Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other Western nations, wrote in a recent essay that Iran\u2019s achievements in the war had opened \u201can exceptional window for diplomacy.\u201d But he warned that if it doesn\u2019t strike a deal soon, then \u201ceconomic recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest or renewed aggression, especially after the U.S. elections, cannot be ruled out.\u201d<\/p>\n
The war has already been marked by surprises.<\/p>\n
After the first wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28 killed Iran\u2019s supreme leader and other top officials, Trump suggested it would be over in a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n
Instead, the conflict has emboldened Iran\u2019s leaders and mobilized their supporters. Tehran is using the Strait of Hormuz \u201cto show that it has not been defeated,\u201d Ghahremanpour said. \u201cIt can increase its legitimacy at home.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the strategy could also backfire. Iran\u2019s resilience has limits and there are concerns that an economic crash could trigger unrest. \u201cIran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But Davari said that for now, Iran can withstand the pressure. \u201cIt\u2019s unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Krauss and Radjy write for the Associated Press. AP writer Hend Kortam in Cairo contributed to this report. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Strait of Hormuz is, by some accounts, named for a Zoroastrian deity destined to emerge victorious after…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":427672,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[19222,7363,6709,170291,92583,19378,48,52,51,23151,47,50,49,8390,1435,96358,47035,170290,118800,96394,2664],"class_list":["post-427671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-control","tag-country","tag-deal","tag-great-risk","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-la","tag-la-headlines","tag-la-news","tag-leader","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-headlines","tag-los-angeles-news","tag-oil","tag-side","tag-strait","tag-strategy","tag-trump-point","tag-u-s-blockade","tag-u-s-war","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=427671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/427672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=427671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=427671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=427671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}