Economic pundits \u2013 partisan or apolitical \u2013 don\u2019t truly understand inflation.<\/p>\n
Thankfully, the official inflation rate cooled a bit in July<\/a>. It\u2019s a welcome respite from a heated spring when the Iranian war spiked gasoline prices, among other things.<\/p>\n But nobody should be cheering. Lower inflation is always better, but 2026\u2019s version of \u201clower\u201d isn\u2019t enough to help many folks who are struggling to balance a household budget.<\/p>\n My trusty spreadsheet looked at Consumer Price Index reports for three Southern California metro areas \u2013 Los Angeles and Orange counties<\/a>, the Inland Empire<\/a> and San Diego County<\/a> \u2013 and the national cost benchmark<\/a>.<\/p>\n When you meld the three local indexes, you see that inflation in Southern California was running at an annual rate of 3.1% in July.<\/p>\n Yes, that\u2019s down from the 3.5% pace of the previous three months.<\/p>\n Yes, that\u2019s down from the 3.5% average annual rate in the first 18 months of Donald Trump\u2019s second presidency.<\/p>\n And, yes, that\u2019s down from the 4.9% average yearly increase seen during Joe Biden\u2019s four years in the White House.<\/p>\n Mission accomplished? Hardly.<\/p>\n Reality check<\/p>\n Those who see economics through the lens of the family checkbook ponder inflation differently than those paid to follow economic gyrations.<\/p>\n The professionals oddly track inflation, minus what\u2019s happening with food and energy costs. Or they spend time guessing the next short-term price fluctuations. Or they\u2019ll muse about what Congress, the White House, or the Federal Reserve should do to cool price hikes.<\/p>\n The reality of these cost-of-living spikes for many households is far simpler than the wisdom of so-called experts. Average folks worry if their paychecks can outpace inflation.<\/p>\n Just think about what the CPI tells Southern Californians.<\/p>\n Goods and services across the five-county region cost 28% more over the past five and a half years.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, if you look at one measure of Southern California pay \u2013 the combined weekly earnings of private-sector workers<\/a> \u2013 it\u2019s up only 16% in the same period.<\/p>\n And that gap is not geographically universal. In L.A.-Orange County, prices are up 27% vs. 13% earnings gains. In the Inland Empire, 30% inflation outpaced 25% pay hikes. And in San Diego, costs rose 30% as wages grew 20%.<\/p>\n It adds up to just another major financial headache in a region with a punishing cost of living.ocregister.com<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Figuring out how to pay the bills isn\u2019t helped by professorial debate about how price indexes are built \u2013 or which cost measurement the economic gurus prefer to watch. The masses need solutions for everyday costs, yet few fixes are offered by pontificators or politicians.<\/p>\n \u201cPopulist\u201d talk of various forms of price controls \u2013 for rent or supermarkets, for example \u2013 is often derided by the punditry as \u201csocialist\u201d thinking. But the gurus don\u2019t get it.<\/p>\n It\u2019s the byproduct of growing frustrations that the ways the economy once worked no longer work for a significant slice of the population.<\/p>\n National pain<\/p>\n Look, Southern California, the best I can say is that others feel your pain, too. Ponder the typical American\u2019s inflation picture.<\/p>\n The national inflation rate was 3.4% in July. That\u2019s down from a 3.9% average for the previous three months, off from the 3.3% pace of Trump\u2019s second term, and slower than Biden\u2019s 4.9% annual pace.<\/p>\n But the national reality is that consumer prices are up 28% over the past five and a half years. And U.S. wages grew only 24% in that timeframe.<\/p>\n Big picture<\/p>\n The reality that paychecks are being eaten up by inflation is a curious pattern as a major election approaches<\/a>.<\/p>\n Those folks lucky enough to beat the rough economic odds are likely happy with the status quo.<\/p>\n Yet those struggling with a paycheck\u2019s shrinking buying power and a growing stack of unpaid bills probably want some serious change.<\/p>\n And what might a voter think is a fair inflation rate \u2013 other than anything below their latest pay raise?<\/p>\n Well, the Fed\u2019s got a 2% target. You might choose pre-pandemic conditions of 2019, often seen as a symbol of the good ol\u2019 days.<\/p>\n That year, prices in Southern California rose 2.7%. Nationally, inflation ran at 1.8%. Both rates are lower than in July 2026.<\/p>\n Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com<\/a><\/p>\n