National Weather Service in Hanford,<\/a> said forecasters look at sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific when assessing the strength of an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\nOchs pointed to two of the strongest previous events in the historical record.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the couple of events that were the highest were 1982 to 1983, where the index went as high as 2.4 degrees. And I believe 1997 to 1998, that went to 2.3 degrees Celsius.\u201d<\/p>\n
This year, forecasters are watching for the possibility of reaching an even higher threshold.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the 69% chance is basically looking at reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius, which would be the record highest since 1950,\u201d Ochs said.<\/p>\n
According to the Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperature anomalies have already exceeded 2 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Significant warming is also occurring below the ocean’s surface, while atmospheric conditions are showing signs consistent with the developing El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
The agency expects El Ni\u00f1o to continue strengthening through the end of the year.<\/p>\n
![\"Rain](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/79aec63f-01fd-4201-a5d0-e7130cdad63c-medium16x9_MILLS_RAINVO_0008_frame_739.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Rain in Bakersfield KBAK\/KBFX<\/p>\n
What could it mean for California and Kern County?<\/p>\n
For many Californians, the big question is whether a stronger El Ni\u00f1o means more rain.<\/p>\n
Ochs said current outlooks favor above-average precipitation across much of Southern California, extending north into Kern County.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe odds are tilted that we will receive at least some precipitation \u2014 at least some above average precipitation \u2014 for this fall through into the winter as well as into the spring,\u201d Ochs said.<\/p>\n
Ochs said the outlook currently shows about a 40% chance of above-average precipitation during portions of the fall and winter outlook for the region.<\/p>\n
But a strong or even historic El Ni\u00f1o does not guarantee an unusually wet winter.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, but usually it’s, or at least more likely, we’ll see at least some above-average precipitation,\u201d Ochs said.<\/p>\n
History shows why there is still uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Neyman looked back at three previous very strong El Ni\u00f1o events \u2014 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 \u2014 and how they affected rainfall in California and the Central and South Valley.<\/p>\n
He said the 1982-83 event brought the South Valley about 191% of its average rainfall, while 1997-98 brought about 183% of average.<\/p>\n
The 2015-16 event played out differently. Neyman said Southern California received less than three-quarters of its typical rainfall, although the Central and South Valley reached above 100% of average.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe last three very strong events have led to at least normal, quote unquote, if not above normal rainfall,\u201d Neyman said.<\/p>\n
That history gives forecasters some indication of what could happen this time around, but it is far from a guarantee.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo it does seem like the odds are in our favor in terms of having at least an average, if not a significantly above average rainfall year,\u201d Neyman said. \u201cBut, of course, we really don’t know. We just have to watch it play by play day by day.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/d0f172d4-15f1-4af4-88d3-fe20a9dbc942-Sequence_MILLSWINDRAINTREEDOWN_0001_frame_102.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
A winter storm in Kern County on February 16, 2026. KBAK\/KBFX<\/p>\n
What impacts could Kern County see?<\/p>\n
If storms begin lining up this winter and tap into deep Pacific moisture, Neyman said there are several potential impacts he will be watching closely in Kern County.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere could be flooding, flash flooding, which we know our area is certainly susceptible to,\u201d Neyman said. \u201cThere could be snowfall impacts in the mountains, if enough cold air comes in with some of these events.\u201d<\/p>\n
Neyman also said some storms associated with an active pattern could contain significant energy, making severe weather another factor meteorologists will watch.<\/p>\n
The greatest influence from El Ni\u00f1o typically occurs during the winter, although impacts can begin during the fall and continue into spring.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat’s where we expect our greatest impact across North America, typically in the winter, about December, January, February, sitting into the spring, and maybe lasting even into those late spring months, potentially starting in the autumn,\u201d Neyman said.<\/p>\n
![\"Rain](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/271dc960-8a9f-4bdf-83a1-4d6de72a1aa2-medium16x9_MILLS_RAINVO_0006_frame_274.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Rain in Bakersfield KBAK\/KBFX<\/p>\n
What happens next?<\/p>\n
While there is already high confidence that El Ni\u00f1o will continue strengthening, exactly how the pattern translates into California’s weather will become clearer as fall and winter approach.<\/p>\n
Ochs said forecasters should have a better handle on potential impacts as the region gets closer to the fall months.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe probably have a little bit better handle on themes and means. Since we are still about, we’re still in August now, usually you get closer to the certainty will increase more, but it’s the certainty’s already pretty high as we’re looking now,\u201d Ochs said.<\/p>\n
For now, Neyman says the developing event is something people should continue watching as the seasons change.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrack it, watch it, stay tuned to the latest details, the data, and the forecasts,\u201d Neyman said. \u201cThey’re all speculative. Nobody really knows what’s gonna happen, but we’re just watching it and kind of trying to monitor what’s happening, what it could mean, and it could mean business.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Climate Prediction Center’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for Sept. 10.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KBAK\/KBFX) \u2014 A strengthening El Ni\u00f1o in the Pacific Ocean could have an impact on California’s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":264915,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[151,153,152],"class_list":["post-437521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bakersfield","tag-bakersfield","tag-bakersfield-headlines","tag-bakersfield-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/264915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/b1f8faf2-1d3a-4436-b2a6-44f47e9a2284-medium16x9_Weather1.jpg\")
A storm in March brought with it some rain which soaked Kern County, Calif., photo taken March 3, 2018. (KBAK\/KBFX)What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n![\"Rain](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/f7adf0d0-aaa1-489e-bbbd-dcb13bb6f0c6-medium16x9_KBAK122722BDM_frame_1095.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n