In November, California voters will elect a new governor, fill other statewide offices and choose occupants of 152 legislative and congressional seats.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s certain \u2014 as certain as anything can be in politics \u2014 that the vast majority of the men and women voters elect will be Democrats, extending the party\u2019s three-decade-long domination of California.<\/p>\n
The only mystery is whether Democrats can capture all five of the extra seats targeted in a voter-approved gerrymander of congressional districts last year.<\/p>\n
The state\u2019s June primary election results reveal a corrosive factor is undermining the party\u2019s future, according to the man who wrote the autopsy on Democratic losses in 2024, veteran political strategist Paul Rivera.<\/p>\n
In May, the national Democratic Party\u00a0released a truncated version of Rivera\u2019s analysis\u00a0of Republican Donald Trump\u2019s defeat of Californian Kamala Harris two years ago. But it omitted a chapter that was critical of former President Joe Biden\u2019s mid-campaign\u2019s decision to drop his bid for reelection and the immediate selection of Harris, Biden\u2019s vice president as the substitute candidate.<\/p>\n
Recently Rivera released a\u00a0564-page updated version of his study, contending that Democrats have lost ground with working-class voters, are too influenced by upper-class elites and have given too much power to professional operatives who have become \u201cgenerationally wealthy off politics.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Republicans pursue their conflict with Democrats constantly, Rivera bemoans, Democrats become active only during election years, throwing money at tight contests at the last minute to make up lost ground after ignoring grassroots organizations.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe difference is right-wing interests take a longer-term approach and amplify polarizing Democratic messaging and candidates with the intention of \u2018othering\u2019 all Democrats,\u201d he writes. \u201cWithout aggressive pushback and tactics, it works.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rivera cites California\u2019s primary as typifying the party\u2019s structural problem.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe data from the 2026 California primary, a state where all voters are proactively mailed their ballots, should be a critical warning sign for Democrats everywhere,\u201d Rivera writes in the updated version of his critique. \u201cThe data shows very low turnout among voters under 35 years of age (21%) in comparison to voters 65 and older (58%). Turnout among Hispanic voters (26%), Asian voters (34%), and Black voters (37%) all trail turnout among white voters (43%).<\/p>\n
\u201cWill Democrats win California in November? Of course. Yet in these unprecedented times, why is there not more energy in opposition to the status quo? If these patterns play out in battleground states and districts \u2014 where younger Americans and non-white voters do not participate to support Democrats \u2014 it will be very difficult to win the House or Senate or build power in the states. It is also likely\u00a0Republicans will outspend Democrats\u00a0this cycle \u2014 for the first time since 2018 \u2014 so Democrats need to truly out-organize Republicans to win.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rivera also sees California as an example of larger demographic trends that will make it more difficult for Democrats to prevail in the future. He cites population losses, or very slow growth, in blue states such as California, New York and Illinois and gains in red states such as Florida and Texas.<\/p>\n
The recalculation of congressional districts after the 2030 census will mean\u00a0fewer presidential electoral votes in California and its sister states\u00a0and more in rival red states.<\/p>\n
The demographic projections, Rivera says, \u201cshould bring sharp focus to the scope and scale of the challenges before Democrats. Without change, Democrats will be locked out of power. National neglect is what led Democrats to this moment \u2014 more of the same is not the answer. None of this will be easy, but moving past talk and into action on some or all of these takeaways can make a massive difference in outcomes for the party and for the country. It\u2019s time to get to work.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In November, California voters will elect a new governor, fill other statewide offices and choose occupants of 152…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":438276,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[1400,7,9,8,400,1751,181,100,975,2082,13],"class_list":["post-438275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-2026-elections","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-california-politics","tag-democrats","tag-latest-headlines","tag-news","tag-opinion","tag-opinion-columnists","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438275\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/438276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}