It\u2019s as inevitable as the tide.<\/p>\n
Possibly a king tide during a storm, with big waves and lots of rain.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve long known the steady sea-level rise will continue to stress and change the coastline.<\/p>\n
A recent study concluded that the ocean has already risen more rapidly than previously believed, and the stern warnings about a coming super El Ni\u00f1o season include the likelihood of record-high<\/a> sea levels along the California coast.<\/p>\n The future is here now, however, though perhaps not to the intense degree it will be. High tides push up the water table and sometimes flood portions of Midway Drive, as documented<\/a> by Lori Salda\u00f1a, former Assembly member and past chair of the local Sierra Club chapter.<\/p>\n The water table concern there and mitigation efforts as they pertain to the proposed Midway Rising redevelopment plan have largely been overlooked amid other disputes over the project.<\/p>\n \u201cYou can\u2019t legislate sea level rise,\u201d said Salda\u00f1a according<\/a> to Fox News, referring to legislation<\/a> in Sacramento that could ease environmental reviews for the development.<\/p>\n Other areas and existing structures are threatened by rising waters. The San Diego Convention Center, for example, couldn\u2019t operate without pumps. Imperial Beach has become something of a canary in the coal mine for researchers studying the impact of sea-level rise on low-lying coastal communities.<\/p>\n Rosanna Xia, environmental reporter for the Los Angeles Times, who has written extensively about sea-level rise, has received widespread critical acclaim for her book \u201cCalifornia Against the Sea.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n She told<\/a> the Times that El Ni\u00f1os, winter storms and summer king tides like the recent one \u201cprovide a powerful glimpse into what the future could look like on a consistent basis, and what the new normal could look like if we don\u2019t prepare communities for the reality of what\u2019s to come.\u201d<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a climate pattern in which trade winds weaken, allowing warm surface water in the Pacific Ocean to expand and shift eastward toward the Americas, according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n Many coastal areas, including San Diego, are taking steps to prepare for that future, though they probably aren\u2019t moving boldly enough. The San Diego Union-Tribune for years has documented laborious efforts along the coast to address sea-level rise.<\/p>\n Among recent updates:<\/p>\n Oceanside is still trying to push ahead with its beach sand-replenishment plan<\/a> despite skepticism from neighboring cities. The proposal includes an artificial reef and building headlands designed to act as a buffer to the sea. In addition to everything else, beaches are key drivers of coastal economies, hence the support, and in some views, the necessity for constant efforts to try to preserve them. These measures and others like them are significant, but they still may seem like trying to bail out a boat that is taking on water too fast.<\/p>\n A more sweeping, difficult and costly response is pulling structures, facilities and, if you will, society back from the coastline, a concept called \u201cmanaged retreat.\u201d Just look at what\u2019s been going on for years to try to realign the railway line away from Del Mar\u2019s eroding bluffs to see how challenging that can be.<\/p>\n That concept is hotly disputed, meeting resistance particularly from private property owners.<\/p>\n In the big picture, the coastal situation worldwide is worse than thought, according to a study<\/a> released in the spring. The report published in Nature<\/a> magazine by scientists at Wageningen University in the Netherlands concluded researchers have been underestimating sea levels for decades, putting millions more people at risk.<\/p>\n Sea levels in California could be 0.25 to 2 meters higher than previous calculations showed, according to the report<\/a>. The study said most earlier research made the same mistakes, using models that assumed sea levels based on gravitational models rather than using the measured sea level.<\/p>\n Gravitational models only account for gravity and the Earth\u2019s rotation and do not account for other factors that determine local sea levels, such as tides, currents and winds, according<\/a> to ABC News. The researchers also reported they used more accurate coastal height baselines.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the coming El Ni\u00f1o could bring the highest sea levels ever recorded to the California coast this year, raising the risk of widespread and damaging flooding, according<\/a> to the Los Angeles Times.<\/p>\n Mark Merrifield, director of the UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography\u2019s Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, noted in an online town hall meeting that coastal buffers already are diminished.<\/p>\n Large waves that come in \u201cwill have even greater impact on the shoreline, with more likelihood of flooding and undercutting of cliffs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Scientists and government officials have been ramping up warnings for months, and, of course, not just for shoreline areas. This week, San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria and other officials discussed the need for preparations<\/a>, adding that a program of clearing flood-control channels across the city is underway.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o alters atmospheric conditions, raising global temperatures and causing heavy rainfall in some regions while triggering severe droughts in others. There\u2019s always the chance this one won\u2019t be as intense as expected, but nobody\u2019s counting on that.<\/p>\n
\nA proposal<\/a> to transform part of Mission Bay into climate-friendly marshland and new recreation space was approved by the California Coastal Commission. The marshland, in addition to sucking carbon out of the air, would act as a sponge to absorb incoming higher sea levels.
\nSan Diego is moving ahead with projects<\/a> in Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs as part of a larger\u00a0 coastal resilience plan. Among other things, the city will remove parking lots on the edge of the crumbling cliffs \u2014 a retreat that acknowledges the ocean is eating away at them.<\/p>\n