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<\/p>\nSAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — The U.S. Geological Survey releasing a new study showing the probability of a major earthquake, greater than 6.7 magnitude hitting the Bay Area within the next 30 years has increased by about 2% to 74%.<\/p>\n
The likelihood increasing on different fault lines because more time has passed without a major quake since the last study was conducted more than a decade ago.<\/p>\n
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And that is resulting in tectonic stress build up.<\/p>\n
“It is the longest fault in California and therefore capable of the biggest earthquakes,” said Dr. Lucy Jones, USGS seismologist, referring to the San Andreas fault.<\/p>\n
It saw the greatest percentage increase – growing by 3.6% since the last study.<\/p>\n
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MORE: New research finds San Andreas Fault is slipping faster than previously thought<\/a><\/p>\n PREPARE NORCAL: Disaster Preparedness Resources<\/a><\/p>\n But the Hayward-Rogers Creek fault is where we see the highest chance of a major earthquake with the probability sitting at 34.3%..<\/p>\n MORE: Seismologist warns stress continues to build on Hayward Fault but probability of ‘big one’ is low<\/a><\/p>\n Even with the increased risk, Dr. Jones says earthquakes remain unpredictable.<\/p>\n “It could go another hundred years, it could be tomorrow. It could be, you know, next minute,” she said.<\/p>\n The Hayward-Rogers Creek system is located beneath densely populated communities in the East Bay – from Fremont through Hayward, Oakland and north toward Santa Rosa.<\/p>\n MORE: San Andreas Fault hits highest stress level in 1,000 years, study finds<\/a><\/p>\n An absolute worst case scenario for the Bay Area would be if there was a linked rupture between the Hayward and Rogers Creek faults – potentially generating a 7.4 magnitude earthquake.<\/p>\n East Bay residents got a reminder of that in August when a small, but strong quake struck under the Oakland Zoo in August<\/a>.<\/p>\n “And just everything started shaking, and I was like, wait. I jumped up and ran out, and I was like, was that an earthquake there? Like, yeah. And then my my nephew, he’s two and a half. He was like, that was a big one,” said Caitlin Fitzpatrick, who felt the Oakland earthquake.<\/p>\n “We underestimate the social disruption and the economic disruption. We are so focused on our fear of dying, that we forget to be afraid of being bankrupted,” Dr. Jones said.<\/p>\n
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