{"id":454455,"date":"2026-09-05T11:52:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T11:52:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/454455\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T11:52:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T11:52:24","slug":"new-digital-tool-shows-how-climate-change-might-disrupt-californias-water-supply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/454455\/","title":{"rendered":"New Digital Tool Shows How Climate Change Might Disrupt California\u2019s Water Supply"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1 large\">The UC Berkeley-led COEQWAL project is helping communities explore how shifting the state\u2019s water priorities could impact agriculture, cities and ecosystems.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"An aerial shot of water channels meandering through green fields.\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"e233670b-02e7-41ff-b983-b38fe4992af3\" height=\"459\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1788609143_306_2026_08_27_AN_0065_prospect_Island_DRONE_BN-768x439.jpg\" width=\"803\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><br \/>\nA drone view of the Tidal Habitat Restoration Project in Solano County, California, which supports the recovery of Delta-dependent fish and wildlife species. A UC Berkeley-led project is creating digital tools to help illustrate the impacts of different approaches to water management in the state, including increasing river flows to support aquatic ecosystems. Andrew Nixon\/California Department of Water Resources<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Water has always been one of California\u2019s most contested resources. For more than a century, battles have raged over how much of the state\u2019s water should be diverted to farmland, pumped into cities or used to conserve aquatic ecosystems \u2014 and at times, these clashes have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wgbh\/americanexperience\/features\/flood-desert-california-water-wars-violent\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">even led to violence<\/a>. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/water.ca.gov\/What-We-Do\/Water-Storage-And-Supply\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">state\u2019s water system<\/a>\u00a0consists of a dizzying array of reservoirs, rivers, dams and aqueducts, making it challenging even for experts to understand the trade-offs of different management decisions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">To top it off, climate change is intensifying California\u2019s already dramatic dry and wet cycles. After surviving more than a decade of severe drought, the state is now bracing for the impact of this year\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/el-nino-climate-change-disasters-worsening-heat-cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">super El Nino<\/a>, which is likely to bring\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-08-13\/risk-of-super-el-nino-now-95-percent-as-california-braces-for-impacts\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">above average rainfall<\/a>\u00a0this winter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">A UC Berkeley-led project aims to make it easier for all Californians to understand the state\u2019s complex water system and have a say in how this critical resource is used. With the support of a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.berkeley.edu\/2023\/08\/23\/five-uc-berkeley-led-projects-awarded-california-climate-action-grants\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">California Climate Action Grant<\/a>, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/coeqwal.berkeley.edu\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Collaboratory for Equity in Water Allocation\u00a0<\/a>(COEQWAL) team has spent the past three years working with stakeholders from around the state. They are creating tools that help illustrate where California\u2019s water is going, the impacts of different water priorities, and how climate change will shift the water landscape.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">At an event in Sacramento on Sept. 3, the collaboration unveiled the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/coeqwal.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">new COEQWAL website<\/a>, which includes educational modules and reference guides explaining California\u2019s water system. It also visualizes the outcomes of more than 100 water management scenarios modeled using the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/water.ca.gov\/Library\/Modeling-and-Analysis\/Central-Valley-models-and-tools\/CalSim-3\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">California Department of Water Resource\u2019s CalSim 3<\/a>\u00a0planning tool. These scenarios give the public the ability to explore how specific water policy decisions \u2014 such as limiting groundwater pumping in the Central Valley or increasing river flows to protect salmon \u2014 might impact water users and ecosystems around the state.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A man gesticulates with his hands while standing in front of a large screen.\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"d5180cad-a7af-4ff1-95de-fa93bb7a956b\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/COEQWAL-Website-Launch-2026-0591-768x512_0.jpg\" width=\"803\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><br \/>\nUC Berkeley faculty and COEQWAL Leader Ted Grantham speaks at the launch event on Sept. 3. Kike Arnal<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cCalSim is a very complex model in part because it\u2019s a very complex system, but the way it was designed makes it almost impossible for anyone other than a highly specialized engineer to interact with the data,\u201d said project lead\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ourenvironment.berkeley.edu\/people\/ted-grantham\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ted Grantham<\/a>, an associate professor of cooperative extension in Berkeley\u2019s Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management. \u201cA big part of what we wanted to do with this project is explore a much broader range of scenarios [than have been published by the Department of Water Resources] to help people understand not only how water is managed today, but what\u2019s possible in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In designing the scenarios, the team partnered with nearly 100 organizations around the state, running workshops to understand their water priorities and interests. The scenarios explore a variety of different water management approaches, including increasing river flows to benefit fish and aquatic ecosystems; improving access to drinking water; and the impacts of state regulations on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/water.ca.gov\/Programs\/Groundwater-Management\/SGMA-Groundwater-Management\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sustainable groundwater use<\/a>\u00a0and protecting the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.waterboards.ca.gov\/press_room\/press_releases\/2026\/pr20260819-state-water-board-final-draft-plan-to-protect-california%E2%80%99s-bay-delta.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"An illustration from the new COEQWAL online tool showing the inflows and outflows of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. COEQWAL project\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"ef589f9d-122d-4867-b1bc-fd91bfa2d83c\" height=\"353\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/baseline-fig-01-768x817.jpg\" width=\"332\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><br \/>\nAn illustration from the new COEQWAL online tool showing the inflows and outflows of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. COEQWAL project<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cIt\u2019s really, really unique to be asked, \u2018What if we managed water for entirely different priorities than we do today?\u2019\u201d said Jonathan Rosenfield, science director at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/baykeeper.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">San Francisco Baykeeper<\/a>, who participated in a number of the workshops. \u201cUsually, when you get access to the CalSim model, you\u2019re creating alternative management scenarios that differ really around the margins. It\u2019s not, \u2018What if we reoriented our water management to a different kind of future?\u2019 This is a real example of the university helping the public and decision-makers understand their options.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The findings are all available on the public COEQWAL website, where users can access, filter and investigate scenario outcomes and tradeoffs with the help of advanced data visualization tools.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cBeing able to have access to some of this modeling and understand the complex elements that currently interact and influence the Delta watershed is going to be very, very powerful for tiny organizations like ours,\u201d said Morgen Snyder, director of policy and programs at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/restorethedelta.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Restore the Delta<\/a>. \u201cI am really impressed with the way the COEQWAL team has brought together a myriad of different stakeholders \u2014 water contractors, water districts, environmental justice groups and tribal organizations \u2014 and using science to find a common path forward.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Grantham hopes the tool will enable more informed discussions about the future of California\u2019s water and debunk some of the simplified arguments and misconceptions that people have about what could happen if priorities were to shift.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In fact, he was surprised to find that the system was often more resilient than might be expected, perhaps due to the deep interconnectedness of the state\u2019s many waterways.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cWe found that a lot of these strategies don\u2019t have as big of an impact as you might expect,\u201d Grantham said. \u201cIt shows that we\u2019re not risking putting the entire system at collapse by sustainably managing groundwater, or protecting the environment or ensuring that everyone has access to clean drinking water. We can actually do these things. They may come with trade-offs, but they are trade-offs that we can manage.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Three people look at a website that is open on a large digital screen. One of the people is manipulating the images on the screen with her hand.\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"7b7e2dd5-90b6-4483-8c06-b231d0a944e6\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/COEQWAL-Website-Launch-2026-8186-768x512.jpg\" width=\"803\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><br \/>\nAttendees of the COEQWAL launch event on Sept. 3 demo the new website on large touch screen displays. Kike Arnal<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Moving forward, the COEQWAL project team has secured a grant from the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/caseagrant.ucsd.edu\/our-work\/research-projects\/advancing-collaboratory-equitable-stewardship-sacramento-san-joaquin\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Delta Science Program<\/a>\u00a0to continue the work, now with a focus on tribal engagement and better modeling Indigenous relationships with water. In hearing from Indigenous representatives at COEQWAL workshops, the team was struck by how models like CalSIM \u2014 which break down complex systems into smaller, quantitative pieces \u2014 are unable to reflect how Indigenous nations experience water as part of interconnected ecological and cultural systems.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\u201cWe want to explore how we can better integrate or weave these values and relationships to water into how we represent them in these models,\u201d Grantham said. \u201cWe\u2019d like to try to draw attention to the fact that these systems are much more than just a volume of acre feet being delivered from point A to point B.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">COEQWAL is a multi-institutional research effort with collaborators from Berkeley, UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, UC Davis, UC Merced, UC Santa Cruz, UC San Diego, UCLA, California State University and many others.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The UC Berkeley-led COEQWAL project is helping communities explore how shifting the state\u2019s water priorities could impact agriculture,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":454456,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[139452,143,145,144,139450,139451],"class_list":["post-454455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-oakland","tag-faculty-excellence","tag-oakland","tag-oakland-headlines","tag-oakland-news","tag-research-berkeley","tag-uc-berkeley-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=454455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/454455\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/454456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=454455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=454455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=454455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}