SAN FRANCISCO — The U.S. Geological Survey released a new study showing the probability of a major earthquake, greater than 6.7 magnitude hitting the San Francisco Bay Area within the next 30 years has increased by about 2% to 74%.<\/p>\n
The likelihood increased on different fault lines because more time has passed without a major quake since the last study was conducted more than a decade ago.<\/p>\n
And that is resulting in tectonic stress build up.<\/p>\n
“It is the longest fault in California and therefore capable of the biggest earthquakes,” said Dr. Lucy Jones, USGS seismologist, referring to the San Andreas fault.<\/p>\n
It saw the greatest percentage increase – growing by 3.6% since the last study.<\/p>\n
But the Hayward-Rogers Creek fault is where we see the highest chance of a major earthquake with the probability sitting at 34.3%.<\/p>\n
Even with the increased risk, Dr. Jones says earthquakes remain unpredictable.<\/p>\n
“It could go another hundred years, it could be tomorrow. It could be, you know, next minute,” she said.<\/p>\n
The Hayward-Rogers Creek system is located beneath densely populated communities in the East Bay – from Fremont through Hayward, Oakland and north toward Santa Rosa.<\/p>\n
An absolute worst case scenario for the Bay Area would be if there was a linked rupture between the Hayward and Rogers Creek faults – potentially generating a 7.4 magnitude earthquake.<\/p>\n