{"id":464555,"date":"2026-09-15T15:02:18","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T15:02:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/464555\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T15:02:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T15:02:18","slug":"is-bass-flailing-is-raman-for-real-4-things-that-could-decide-l-a-mayors-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/464555\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bass flailing? Is Raman for real? 4 things that could decide L.A. mayor&#8217;s race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Los Angeles has 49 days before voters will decide the pivotal race for mayor, which pits incumbent Karen Bass against Councilwoman Nithya Raman.<\/p>\n<p>It feels like a short time. But trust me, it\u2019s an eternity.<\/p>\n<p>So for now, here are four things I am watching that could help determine who wins:<\/p>\n<p>How vulnerable is Bass?<\/p>\n<p>If there is one statistic haunting the race,<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-05-28\/poll-shows-bass-raman-pratt-in-tight-race-for-mayor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> it comes from a UC Berkeley\/LA Times poll <\/a>in late May that asked voters about a November matchup between Bass and Raman. It showed 32% for Raman and 28% for Bass. You cannot take those numbers to the bank, especially in September. But they highlight Bass\u2019 challenges.<\/p>\n<p>The last few months had some bright spots for L.A. <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/topic\/world-cup-2026\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The World Cup<\/a> was a feel-good moment. <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-05-07\/los-angeles-metro-d-line-extension\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The D Line <\/a>subway opening reminded people the city can still do things. But the sour mood that numerous surveys and polls have found about the state of the city does not appear to have magically lifted. <\/p>\n<p>Bass was <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-08-02\/its-been-summer-of-bad-news-for-mayor-bass-can-she-reset-narrative\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">dealing with headaches all summer<\/a> \u2014 from the Boyle Heights warehouse fire to a <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-07-23\/homelessness-is-up-in-los-angeles-in-a-setback-to-mayor-karen-bass\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rising homeless count<\/a> to the Sunset Boulevard water main break. But she was also everywhere, using her office to stay in front of the public\u2019s mind in moments of crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Is it enough to erase memories of her moves in the early days of the 2025 firestorms, which <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2025-01-08\/mayor-karen-bass-wildfires-africa-trip\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">were roundly criticized<\/a> and left <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2025-03-11\/la-me-fire-poll-bass-newsom\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">her profoundly unpopular?<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Bass is far from hemorrhaging. She got the biggest labor endorsements during the primary and will have sizable coffers to remind voters about Raman\u2019s<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/05\/01\/us-news\/nithya-raman-whines-about-la-police-union-attack-ads-despite-anti-police-voting-history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"> less-than-popular position<\/a>s. She\u2019s backed by many of the City Council\u2019s leading progressives, and so far no one has defected. In the latest campaign reports, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-08-01\/campaign-finance-reports-mayor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bass doubled Raman in<\/a> terms of fundraising.<\/p>\n<p>The last time L.A. voters tossed out an incumbent mayor was 2005. In the primary, Mayor James Hahn <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/archives\/la-xpm-2005-mar-10-me-mayor10-story.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">came in second place, garnering <\/a>just 23% of the vote behind Antonio Villaraigosa\u2019s 33%. In the general election, Villaraigosa ousted <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/archives\/la-xpm-2005-may-18-me-mayor18-story.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Hahn in a landslide.<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>By that measure, Bass goes into November in better shape than Hahn. She came in first in the primary with 34% of the vote.<\/p>\n<p>Now, everyone wants to know how much she can add to that total.<\/p>\n<p>Is the Raman momentum real?<\/p>\n<p>If the conventional wisdom holds, Bass\u2019 tough summer means that Raman gained some momentum. She won several <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-02\/democratic-socialists-endorse-raman-in-la-mayoral-race\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">endorsements in recent weeks<\/a> that brought good headlines, including from the Democratic Socialists of America and <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-02\/democratic-socialists-endorse-raman-in-la-mayoral-race\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">labor groups<\/a> such as Unite Here and the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters. She had what most considered to be a good debate performance against Bass. She\u2019s become a fixture on the TV news, seeming more confident, comfortable and in command than during the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-05-06\/la-mayors-race-skirball-center\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rocky primary campaign.<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>My colleague Gustavo Arellano calls her the<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-04\/nithya-raman-mayors-race-endorsements-dsa-unite-here\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> \u201ccomeback kid,\u201d<\/a> praising her for \u201ceasily scoring off of Bass mishaps.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For those who think this is a \u201cchange election,\u201d it\u2019s easy to look at the landscape and see things falling into place for Raman. She\u2019s generally to the left of Bass in an election year where Democratic progressives are making gains. A UCLA survey showed all-time-low satisfaction with the quality of life in L.A. County. She talks about the big issue driving that dissatisfaction: affordability. She frames her campaign as a grassroots movement against the entrenched corporate and political interests at City Hall.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a compelling package on paper. Yet if that is the political narrative, it would be fair to ask why she didn\u2019t do better in the primary.<\/p>\n<p>Doing the Spencer Pratt math<\/p>\n<p>So how do Bass and Raman build a winning coalition? The conventional wisdom is that it runs through Spencer Pratt, who came in third in the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/politics\/story\/2026-06-04\/primary-election-2026-map-mayor-neighborhood-results-precincts\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">primary carrying wealthy Westside <\/a>and a scattering of less-than-liberal districts around L.A.<\/p>\n<p>Pratt says both candidates are a mess but seems to be picking his poison.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA Karen Bass Mayorship is depressing,\u201d <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/newsletter\/2026-08-22\/no-basura-as-spencer-pratt-gushes-about-karen-basss-debate-performance\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">he recently wrote.<\/a> \u201cA Nithya Raman Mayorship is terrifying.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But Pratt, a Trump-friendly Republican in a deep-blue city, ran on a promise <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-06-11\/spencer-pratt-became-voice-for-l-a-s-disaffected-where-do-his-supporters-go-now\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">of radical reform at City Hall.<\/a> Will his supporters really just hold their noses and reelect Bass? Raman\u2019s progressive credentials and DSA backing might make his more conservative, wealthy voters do just that. But other elements of his coalition could be willing to roll the dice in a new direction. <\/p>\n<p>Fernando Guerra, a professor at Loyola Marymount University, told my colleague Noah Goldberg<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-13\/pratt-voters-could-play-pivotal-role-in-deciding-l-a-s-next-mayor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> that Raman might be wise<\/a> not to simply focus on capturing the Pratt vote. <\/p>\n<p>Perhaps she\u2019d have more luck trying to turn Bass voters on the Eastside rather than stumping around places like Bel-Air and Chatsworth.<\/p>\n<p>Inspiration, not just anger<\/p>\n<p>Can Raman win purely by counting on voter dissatisfaction? I\u2019m dubious.<\/p>\n<p>That becomes clear when you look back at two major L.A. \u201cchange elections\u201d: 2005 as well as 1973, when Tom Bradley ousted incumbent Mayor Sam Yorty.<\/p>\n<p>Hahn and Yorty had both worn out their welcomes.<\/p>\n<p>But Bradley and Villaraigosa offered exciting visions of a different Los Angeles. <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-05-31\/la-politics-fractures-amid-dissatisfaction-frayed-alliances-generational-conflict\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bradley became L.A.\u2019s first Black mayor<\/a>, uniting business and labor into an era of epic growth powered by a multiethnic political coalition that survived for decades. <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/archives\/la-xpm-2005-may-19-me-exit19-story.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Villaraigosa represented<\/a> the ascendancy of <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/archives\/la-xpm-2005-jun-27-me-lalatinos27-story.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Latinos as a political and cultural force<\/a> in the city as well as a new generation of leadership.<\/p>\n<p>Their elections made history.<\/p>\n<p>Will 2026 end up being another tipping point?<\/p>\n<p>As we wait, Arellano suggests<a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-10\/patron-saints-for-2026-election\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> looking to the patron<\/a> saints for inspiration.<\/p>\n<p>Pratt\u2019s take is more simple: <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/spencerpratt.substack.com\/p\/surviving-the-dumb-and-dumber-debate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u201cGod help us.\u201d<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Top stories <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/entertainment-arts\/awards\/live\/emmys-2026-live-updates-winners-photos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">           <img class=\"image\" alt=\"Andrew Rannells and Mariska Hargitay during the 78th Emmy Awards ceremony \"   width=\"1200\" height=\"801\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789484535_646_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>    <\/a>     <\/p>\n<p>Andrew Rannells and Emmys host Mariska Hargitay during a bit bidding goodbye to series that ended in the past year.<\/p>\n<p>(Robert Gauthier\/Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n<p>       Everything that happened at the 2026 EmmysKelvin wave is the latest threat to SoCal coastal citiesAnother El Ni\u00f1o-influenced phenomenon \u2014 <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-14\/kelvin-wave-poses-new-threat-to-socal-coastal-cities-timeline\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a \u201ccoastally trapped Kelvin wave\u201d<\/a> \u2014 is moving up the coast of Mexico and will soon hit the U.S. West Coast.Forecasters warn the \u201cpretty epic\u201d wave could arrive in early October, priming the battered coast for a winter of higher tides, stronger storms and worsening erosion atop long-term sea level rise.Some activists want dogs taken away from Skid Row homelessAnimal advocates complain that <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2026-09-15\/skid-row-dogs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Skid Row is an epicenter of animal neglect<\/a> and cruelty and that the city is failing to enforce animal welfare laws.Mayor Karen Bass\u2019 office says it is taking \u201cconcrete\u201d steps to investigate allegations of animal cruelty and offer resources to unhoused pet owners.More newsCommentary and opinionEditor\u2019s pickThings to do <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/entertainment-arts\/list\/southern-california-theater-fall-2026-plays-musicals\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">           <img class=\"image\" alt=\"An illustration of an abstract face made up of theater curtains for hair and comedy and tragedy masks as eyes.\"   width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789484535_458_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>    <\/a>      <\/p>\n<p>(Kissi Ussuki \/ For The Times)<\/p>\n<p>       Today\u2019s recipe <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/recipe\/nancys-chopped-salad\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">           <img class=\"image\" alt=\"Chopped salad\"   width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789484537_226_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>    <\/a>      <\/p>\n<p>(Kirk McKoy \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/recipe\/nancys-chopped-salad\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nancy Silverton\u2019s chopped salad<\/a> is refreshing, flavorful and packed with protein. This hearty meal for two, with no cooking required, is made of a mountain of radicchio, iceberg, red onion, halved cherry tomatoes, salami, provolone cheese and chickpeas and tossed in a tangy red wine oregano vinaigrette.<\/p>\n<p>Question for you<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s your favorite place to see fall colors in California? Email us at <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/newsletter\/2026-09-15\/mailto:essentialcalifornia@latimes.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">essentialcalifornia@latimes.com<\/a>, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.<\/p>\n<p>Photo of the day <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/entertainment-arts\/awards\/story\/2026-09-14\/emmys-2026-red-carpet-photos-fashion-best-dressed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">           <img class=\"image\" alt=\"Zendaya walks the red carpet\"   width=\"1200\" height=\"1800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/1789484538_294_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>    <\/a>        <\/p>\n<p>(Christina House\/Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n<p>       Games       <img class=\"image\" alt=\"Mini Crossword Logo\" width=\"1200\" height=\"988\" src=\"https:\/\/ca-times.brightspotcdn.com\/21\/ec\/25146a67473fbc80fa9a6e5bdb82\/minicrossword-kyle.svg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>           <\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s today\u2019s <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/games\/mini-crossword\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mini crossword<\/a>, plus our other free, daily <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/games\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and jigsaw games<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Have a great day, from the Essential California team<\/p>\n<p>Jack Dolan, investigative reporter<br \/>Hugo Mart\u00edn, assistant editor, Fast Break desk<br \/>Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor<br \/>Andrew J. Campa, weekend writer<br \/>Karim Doumar, head of newsletters<\/p>\n<p>How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/newsletter\/2026-09-15\/mailto:essentialcalifornia@latimes.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">essentialcalifornia@latimes.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Los Angeles has 49 days before voters will decide the pivotal race for mayor, which pits incumbent Karen&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":464556,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[7,2299,1085,891,2300,2297,340,2303,48,52,51,47,50,49,63,2302,1086,1459,2301,2298,74,225,315,688],"class_list":["post-464555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-california","tag-civic-revolt","tag-covid","tag-covid-19","tag-days","tag-essential-california","tag-israel","tag-l-a","tag-la","tag-la-headlines","tag-la-news","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-headlines","tag-los-angeles-news","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-may","tag-pandemic","tag-part","tag-president-biden","tag-red-county","tag-san-diego","tag-state","tag-time","tag-years"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=464555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/464556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=464555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=464555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=464555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}