{"id":465729,"date":"2026-09-16T16:00:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T16:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/465729\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T16:00:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T16:00:38","slug":"cultivating-objectivity-sacramento-appraisal-blog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/465729\/","title":{"rendered":"cultivating objectivity – Sacramento Appraisal Blog"},"content":{"rendered":"

The market has changed and we are feeling those higher rates right now. Yet, the housing market isn\u2019t completely dead either like some headlines might suggest. The truth is seven percent rates were no big deal for Chuck Norris, and he could eat them for breakfast. But we\u2019re not Chuck. Today, let\u2019s talk about what\u2019s happening right now, what to expect, and I also have a huge market update for those interested.<\/p>\n

Scroll by topic or digest slowly.<\/p>\n

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UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:<\/p>\n

9\/22\/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9\/24\/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10\/2\/26 PCAR Rocklin
10\/21\/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks \/ EDH
11\/17\/26 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11\/19\/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1\/15\/27 PCAR
1\/26\/27 Residential Roundup<\/p>\n

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WE\u2019VE SEEN 7% RATES IN RECENT YEARS<\/p>\n

It\u2019s shocking right now to see rates rising, but this isn\u2019t the first time in recent years that rates have gone above 7%. Granted, it\u2019s frustrating today since rates touched 6% in January, but here we are. The highest average rate yesterday was 7.22% per Mortgage News Daily<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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THINGS TO WATCH IN TODAY\u2019S MARKET<\/p>\n

Not every market or listing is going to feel the same, but here are some things to watch in today\u2019s market if rates continue to rise:<\/p>\n

Buyers backing off
\nSellers backing off
\nLess traffic for listings
\nLess pendings and closed sales
\nPeople will still be buying and selling
\nSome homes will still go very quickly with multiple offers
\nMany sellers will need to reduce the price
\nMore credits from sellers
\nMore credits from builders
\nThe number of active listings can rise if buyers aren\u2019t absorbing listings
\nBuyers are poised to get even more picky about condition and location
\nPrices could soften if rates rise sharply. This is to be determined, and some of it hinges on the balance between supply and demand. In recent years, sellers have stepped back from the market during uncertain times, and that keeps the market a little tighter.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a visual I made a few years ago, and these are things to consider:<\/p>\n

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DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS VIBES FOR REAL ESTATE PROS<\/p>\n

Objectivity is what helps during uncertain times, and staying connected to the stats becomes even more important. Do you know what doesn\u2019t help? Sensationalism, worry, and doomerism. My advice? If you work in real estate, recognize when you have that deer in the headlights look. It\u2019s okay to be frightened in the moment when the market changes, but staying stuck in that place does not help life or business. So, right now it\u2019s time to lean more heavily into the numbers so you can understand what\u2019s happening, explain the trends, and make plans for business.\u00a0<\/p>\n

BUYERS GETTING MORE FROM SELLERS<\/p>\n

When a market softens, buyers gain more power to negotiate. Here\u2019s a look at the average seller concession amount by county for August sales. These are things like credits for repairs or a rate buydown (not agent compensation). Keep in mind, not every transaction has concessions, but this is what it looks like when they do.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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WHAT\u2019S GOING ON WITH PENDINGS SINCE RATES INCREASED?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s only been a few days since rates went above 7%, so we really don\u2019t have much data. It\u2019s going to take time to see the trend. For now, here\u2019s a look at about two hundred pendings in the Sacramento region since last Friday when rates were above 7%. Technically, rates hit 7% on Thursday, but I wanted to use Friday to be safe.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The thing that stands out to me below is 21% of pendings got into contract in one week or less, so it shows current buyers are still targeting new stuff that comes to the market. I like that 20% of pendings were on the market for over 90 days too as it shows there is hope for lingering listings (if the price is lowered). The spread here is actually pretty normal, but I think it\u2019s a good reminder the market is still happening (expect a lower number of pendings though).\u00a0<\/p>\n

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WE\u2019RE POISED TO SEE A LOOSER FALL SEASON<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s an image from a presentation I gave yesterday. Haha. I asked people if they thought the market was going to loosen or tighten this fall, and I think most people went with the big jeans instead of skinny jeans. For now, nobody knows the future, but it\u2019s reasonable to look at an environment with rising rates and plan for a softer fall. Here\u2019s a good motto. The housing market will likely have a dull fall unless something interrupts the trend.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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A REMINDER FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS<\/p>\n

Stop putting your hope in lower rates. Focus on the market that is here. And focus on what you can control, which is your mindset. Some real estate professionals obsess over mortgage rates and prices staying high, but nobody can control either of those. This is why it makes sense to focus on those who have incentive to buy and sell regardless of market conditions. I say this in every type of market. The focus is people. Always.<\/p>\n

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ADVICE FOR SELLERS IN TODAY\u2019S MARKET<\/p>\n

Price reasonably
\nDon\u2019t push value
\nRecognize buyers have lost purchasing power with rate increases, and this means they can\u2019t afford as much home
\nDon\u2019t price to other overpriced listings. Give the most weight to other properties that are actually getting into contract. Remember, sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like.
\nRecognize how sensitive buyers are about price, condition, and location
\nTidy up your home prior to listing if possible (fix what you can)
\nMake the transaction good for the buyer also
\nThe market doesn\u2019t care about your profit or how much you need to net
\nLower the price if needed. A price reduction helps you discover value. You\u2019re not giving up value if value was never there.
\nYou might only get one offer. Don\u2019t expect ten.<\/p>\n

ADVICE FOR BUYERS IN TODAY\u2019S MARKET<\/p>\n

Be patient for the right house
\nBe ready to act quickly for the good stuff
\nDon\u2019t be afraid to offer on an overpriced home
\nBuy what you can afford, not what you can refinance later
\nGet concessions if the market will give them to you
\nPay attention to the local market (not just national trends)
\nWhile some buyers shrink back as rates rise, watch for opportunities<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014- Local stats for those interested \u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

BIG MARKET UPDATE FOR 12 COUNTIES<\/p>\n

\"\"For those interested, here are some stats and trend to watch in today\u2019s market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

RECAPPING THE TREND<\/p>\n

Most stats in August feel a little flat compared to one year ago. For months, we\u2019ve been seeing price metrics either slightly higher or lower than last year. Yet, it\u2019s also been an Uno Reverse Card<\/a> trend since the market feels opposite this year with a softer fall instead of a tightening one. The good news for the housing market is we\u2019ve had 5% growth in volume so far in 2026, but August was very flat, so this 5% growth really happened through July. In recent months, we\u2019ve seen a hit to buyer demand with less pendings, and that looks to be showing up with a lower number of closed sales. Sellers have also backed off some in recent months, and that\u2019s why the number of active listings is lower right now in eleven out of twelve counties I cover (only higher in Sutter). New construction has had a few months of very low volume, so I would expect to see builders offering even more concessions. Remember, any softness from 7% rates won\u2019t really show up in the closed sales stats for a couple of months. My advice? Stay objective, let the numbers form your perspective, and be careful of hyperbole and sensationalism right now. Let the local stats keep you grounded in the actual market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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HERE\u2019S WHAT GROWTH LOOKS LIKE (AND A WEAK AUGUST)<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen about 600 more sales so far this year, though the growth was from January to July since August was a weaker month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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SUBDUED SUPPLY, BUT ENOUGH GROWTH TO SOFTEN<\/p>\n

We have slightly lower active supply compared to last year, but the gap between supply and demand has been wider overall, so we feel that in the market. Supply is only 2.4 months in Sacramento County, our largest county, but I find things start to feel frothy around this level. All I\u2019m saying is we\u2019re no longer at an incredibly low level where the market is really tight.<\/p>\n

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For those saying it\u2019s 2008 again, just remember there were 8,900 more active listings in the region during August 2008.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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There is a viral narrative saying it\u2019s the widest gap ever between buyers and sellers, but that narrative is wildly disconnected from reality. And sorry for any confusion as active listings are black below and green above. I don\u2019t typically make color mistakes like that, but I\u2019ll have to correct that at some point before sharing next.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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CHECK OUT PRICE CHANGE VISUALS<\/p>\n

Some ways I\u2019m looking at price change. Do you see how flat it\u2019s been in recent years? And do you see the up and down seasonal rhythm?\u00a0<\/p>\n

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THE REGIONAL MEDIAN IS OKAY (NOT OKAY IN SMALL AREAS)<\/p>\n

The median sales price can be a hot mess if there isn\u2019t enough data. I find the regional median is pretty solid, and it\u2019s actually very consistent with the Freddie Mac Price Index for Sacramento (and Zillow\u2019s Sacramento index). But the median is total garbage in smaller areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do you see how the trend is more consistent with the region, but then all over the place in smaller areas?\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Here\u2019s another way to look at the trend. Price change has tightened this year. We were down about 4% last fall, but things have become quite flat lately as we make year-over-year comparisons.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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But check out the smaller counties. These are messy from month to month. My advice? Don\u2019t even share price metrics from month to month in smaller areas because you\u2019re going to sound manic. Maybe focus on the regional trend instead.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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EXPECT BUILDERS TO OFFER MORE CREDITS<\/p>\n

August was pretty brutal for builders. It was basically the worst August since 2017, and this is why you can expect builders to offer more concessions. I think builders are going to have to lower prices also if this keeps up.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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STATS FOR TWELVE COUNTIES<\/p>\n

Here are the latest stats for twelve counties. Please don\u2019t be rigid about smaller counties since the price stats especially bounce around all over the place. I was actually showing price stats in smaller areas in 90-day chunks, but even then, it was a hot mess, so this month I switched back to 30-day chunks. If you have any feedback, let me know. I just felt like it was garbage data even at 90 days\u2026<\/p>\n

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Thanks for being here. I appreciate it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Question: What are you seeing out there right now with 7% rates? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers?\u00a0<\/p>\n

If you liked this post,\u00a0subscribe by email\u00a0<\/a>(or\u00a0RSS).<\/a>\u00a0Thanks for being here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The market has changed and we are feeling those higher rates right now. Yet, the housing market isn\u2019t…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":465730,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[121,123,122],"class_list":["post-465729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sacramento","tag-sacramento","tag-sacramento-headlines","tag-sacramento-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=465729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/465730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=465729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=465729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=465729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}