Willis\u2019 research revealed that a true top line forward will produce, on average, 2.5 points per 60. A top-three forward will deliver between 2 and 2.5 points per 60. Top six? Between 1.5 and two. Bottom six? Between one and 1.5. Recall that Misa was 12th in ice time at even-strength, and 11th in power play minutes. So I wanted to answer some questions: what is Misa\u2019s true production when we adjust for opportunity factors? And what was his true production compared to other 18-year olds in his cohort? Below are Misa\u2019s numbers along with other names with comparable production.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
![\"First-Year](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/01m2nj01tqea8336mayv.jpg\" "\\"First-Year")
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Evolving Hockey<\/p>\n
Right away we get some revealing information. Misa\u2019s true production was right in line with a top six forward. His true production was also comparable to some very big names in their first year despite the low totals. But I left out a fun fact: the above names are the ten players below the top 10\u2026since 2007. Not only does Misa make the top 20 for an 18-year old\u2019s forward production, adjusted for opportunity factors like ice time and power play usage, but he\u2019s above some big names you don\u2019t see on this list; names like Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Steven Stamkos, Leo Carlsson, and John Tavares. Does that mean he\u2019ll end up having a better career? Of course not. But what it demonstrates is that Misa proved he’s good enough for more icetime and a bigger role.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Of course, none of this answers the bigger question: will those opportunity factors change? Head Coach, Ryan Warsofsky, chose the combination of Misa with Collin Graf and Tyler Toffoli at the end of the season. They were 63 percent in expected goal share, dominating shot quality for San Jose when they were on the ice. However, will that be the line that transforms Misa into the second-line center he can be? Would Warsofsky consider trying Will Smith next to Misa? What about Mason Marchment in place of Toffoli next to Graf? Ivar Stenberg seems like an obvious candidate, but with Celebrini being the \u2018veteran\u2019 between the two, that might be a better experiment.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
You\u2019d be hard pressed to think of any recent Stanley Cup winner or contender who didn\u2019t have elite center depth. Sure, Carolina and Vegas might look like exceptions at first glance, but that\u2019s only if you weren\u2019t paying attention to the borderline Conn Smythe performance the Hurricanes got from Logan Stankoven, or the Selke-level play the Knights could always count on from William Karlsson. Can Misa develop into any of these players? Will Warsofsky identity that and add more responsibility to Misa\u2019s plate?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
As fun as the Sharks are, the time for fun is over (for them, not us of course). These are no longer amusing little experiments in roster building; projecting who goes where and with who. On the contrary, the data suggests that Misa has already arrived. It doesn\u2019t guarantee he\u2019ll get there. But it does imply he can. If that\u2019s true, then any discussion about San Jose being playoff-bound is not so crazy after all. But that depends on Misa and the opportunity factors that come with him.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
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