San Jose officials say a new city-commissioned data model estimates that unsheltered homelessness has fallen 30% in 18 months, a dramatic result that would bolster Mayor Matt Mahan\u2019s embrace of temporary shelters for residents priced out of the notorious Silicon Valley housing market.<\/p>\n
However, Santa Clara County has not reviewed the model, and the finding has not been confirmed by the region\u2019s official homelessness count, which isn\u2019t slated until early next year. Some advocates for unhoused people said they haven\u2019t witnessed a major decline in the number of residents living in vehicles, tents or structures.<\/p>\n
City officials this week touted their new modeling as evidence that Mahan\u2019s aggressive approach to encampments<\/a> and his rapid buildout of shelters<\/a> for unhoused residents is bearing fruit. Housing Director Erik Solivan told council members on Tuesday the model produced by a third-party data analysis company showed a 30% decline in unsheltered homelessness between February 2025 and this August, from 5,477 to 3,702 people.<\/p>\n Mahan, Solivan and other city officials held a press conference Wednesday along the Guadalupe River in downtown San Jose, where the mayor took aim at critics and defended his strategy.<\/p>\n \u201cNaysayers will call this a \u2018bridge to nowhere,\u2019\u201d he said, invoking the derisive label popularized during Sarah Palin\u2019s 2008 vice presidential campaign. \u201cI would challenge them, however, to explain how living beside the river is better than what we\u2019ve accomplished in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n Shaunn Cartwright, an advocate and fierce critic of Mahan who is a fixture in San Jose homeless encampments, said the city-commissioned estimate gave the mayor \u201cthe numbers that he wants.\u201d\u00a0She said she routinely sees residents become homeless after short stays in the city\u2019s temporary shelters, or try unsuccessfully to access shelter in the first place.<\/p>\n Officials at Santa Clara County, which manages the region\u2019s official data system, said they hadn\u2019t reviewed the model.<\/p>\n \u201cThe county cannot comment on the city\u2019s model, as it has not been shared with us, so we cannot speak to its validity or accuracy,\u201d the county Office of Supportive Housing wrote in an email.<\/p>\n However, the officials wrote that countywide data shows the number of people coming into San Jose homeless service providers \u201cremains high, with nearly 3,000 households becoming homeless last year.\u201d<\/p>\n The city\u2019s own annual report, released in July, offered a mixed assessment of San Jose\u2019s campaign under Mahan\u2019s leadership to close encampments and funnel residents into its expanded shelter network.<\/p>\n