El Ni\u00f1o, the climate phenomenon that will likely reach historic strength this fall<\/a>, is driving the forecast.<\/p>\n “The odds are increasing that it will be an above-normal winter as far as precipitation in California,” Jan Null, a meteorologist and private weather consultant with Golden Gate Weather Services, told SFGATE by phone Thursday. “But there’s no guarantee … Right now, it’s like we have a six-sided die, and five of those sides say above-normal and one side says near-normal or below-normal.”<\/p>\n NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a seasonal forecast on Sept. 17, 2026, showing elevated odds for above-normal precipitation across California this winter. (NOAA)<\/p>\n NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center generally expects Southern California’s rainy season to start first and to have the greatest chances of more precipitation than normal. Beginning in December, however, elevated chances of above-normal rainfall wash over all of California. Statewide, January, February and March have the highest odds of heavier precipitation. Temperatures will likely trend warm only for Northern California through at least February, potentially impacting the snowpack.<\/p>\n “The evolving El Nino is the primary driver of the outlook,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of operational prediction for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an email to SFGATE Thursday.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase of a natural pattern that emerges in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are still rising as this year’s El Ni\u00f1o continues to rapidly strengthen. The spike in the Pacific’s heat during El Ni\u00f1o years can drive winter weather in California and across the globe. Generally, El Ni\u00f1o causes the jet stream over the Pacific to shift southward, raising the odds of a wetter season in Southern California.<\/p>\n The new NOAA outlook aligns with those expectations. The latest seasonal forecast<\/a> from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also shows extremely high confidence for a wet winter in California.<\/p>\n “It’s always good when we see multiple models going in the same direction,” Null said. “This solidifies that the odds are leaning toward a wetter-than-normal year, but we don’t know how much wetter. And we don’t know how that rain will be distributed through the year.”<\/p>\n Meanwhile, after a few tiny droplets fell across the Bay Area into Thursday morning – mostly concentrated in the East Bay hills – due to a superthick marine layer, the weather should warm up and dry out, National Weather Service meteorologist Dylan Flynn told SFGATE by phone Thursday.<\/p>\n Most Read<\/p>\n Local |<\/p>\n Bay Area man loses historic compound after decades of disputes<\/a> A once-thriving Calif. restaurant scene is quickly disappearing<\/a> MLB owner penalized $2M for illegal ocean dig at Calif. mansion<\/a> | Human remains exposed by drought identified as Bay Area woman<\/a><\/p>\n Read our stories ad-free on the new SFGATE app<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"NOAA's](\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/multi_season\/13_seasonal_outlooks\/color\/p.gif\")
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