{"id":470201,"date":"2026-09-20T19:00:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T19:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/470201\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T19:00:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T19:00:22","slug":"bay-area-transit-tax-whats-at-stake-for-bart-caltrain-and-muni-in-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/470201\/","title":{"rendered":"Bay Area transit tax: What\u2019s at stake for BART, Caltrain and Muni in November"},"content":{"rendered":"

The fate of the Bay Area\u2019s struggling public transit system could rest on a decision before voters in November: whether to approve a sales tax rate increase to fund transportation agencies that have warned of significant service cuts and station closures without a new revenue stream.<\/p>\n

The ballot initiative, known as the Regional Transit Measure, follows Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s issuance of a $590 million emergency loan earlier this year to help sustain transit operators while they worked toward a long-term solution to their fiscal woes.\u00a0But some agencies have said they won\u2019t tap into the funds unless the measure passes since they won\u2019t have a way to pay it back otherwise.<\/p>\n

The governor and the state Legislature also previously allocated $5.1 billion in 2023 to boost struggling transit agencies across the state. The Bay Area\u2019s four largest systems alone are collectively facing upward of an $800 million annual deficit next year.<\/p>\n

The measure is expected to generate roughly $980 million annually for the next 14 years for bus, train, metro and ferry lines across five counties. It would raise the sales tax rate by 0.5 percentage points in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Contra Costa and Alameda counties and by 1 percentage point in San Francisco.\u00a0That means an additional 50 cents per $100 in taxable purchases in the four counties, and $1 per $100 in San Francisco. The measure needs a combined simple majority to pass.<\/p>\n

Proponents of the initiative, including the Bay Area Council, housing and transit groups, labor unions and more than 200 elected officials, argue the tax increase is vital to keeping public transit across the Bay Area afloat. A number of transit agencies have proposed eliminating routes, cutting back on hours or ending weekend service completely if the measure fails.<\/p>\n

But opponents with the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, a group sponsored by the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association, contend that the agencies haven\u2019t used their money wisely, should make cuts in other areas or could ask for help from the state Legislature to redirect funds from capital projects they view as wasteful.<\/p>\n

\"What<\/p>\n

So how did the Bay Area\u2019s transit agencies find themselves facing such a severe fiscal cliff? The problem isn\u2019t unique to the region \u2014 the pandemic fundamentally reshaped transit across the country as many people suddenly started working from home. Even six years later, riders haven\u2019t fully returned. In 2025, bus ridership reached 83% of pre-pandemic levels nationally, while rail ridership was at 75%, according to a report from the American Public Transportation Association.<\/p>\n

The decline in ridership also hit agencies heavily dependent on fare revenues to cover operating costs even harder, according to Asha Weinstein Agrawal, the director of the Mineta Transportation Institute\u2019s National Transportation Finance Center. She said BART and SFMTA had been widely praised pre-COVID for having some of the best farebox recovery rates in the country since fares covered a large majority of operations.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, when you lose all your riders,\u201d she said, \u201csuddenly you are in a much worse situation financially than an agency like VTA, which has historically had a much lower farebox recovery rate.\u201d<\/p>\n

More than a dozen transit agencies are expected to receive funding from the Regional Transit Measure, and for Bay Area residents who are reliant on buses and rail lines to get around, the stakes are high as several agencies have already proposed deep service cuts if the initiative fails.<\/p>\n

\"AndyAndy Nikolaeff of San Francisco speaks during an interview at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Andy Nikolaeff, a San Francisco resident who takes BART or Caltrain to work twice a week, said that service cuts would likely increase his average commute time, which is already between an hour and 15 minutes and an hour and 45 minutes.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would mean more waiting on the platform, waiting on the train and I\u2019d be less likely to take it if I need to get to where I\u2019m going,\u201d he said during an interview at the Millbrae Transit Center this week. \u201cI take transit because it\u2019s a nice way of getting out there, getting exercise and being part of the community.\u201d<\/p>\n

While ridership numbers have been on the upswing the last year, with the Bay Area playing host to major events like the Super Bowl and the FIFA World Cup that have spurred higher weekend ridership, it\u00a0hasn\u2019t been enough to sustain the region\u2019s transportation agencies.<\/p>\n

BART is facing an annual deficit between $350 million and $400 million in the coming years. The agency recently saw its highest post-pandemic ridership in June due to the FIFA World Cup and San Francisco Pride,\u00a0with ridership 18.6% higher than it was in June 2025. But weekday ridership is still way down with August seeing an average 212,060 weekday exits versus 410,854 the same month in 2019.<\/p>\n

BART has proposed ending service at 9 p.m. instead of at midnight, reducing train frequencies to 30 minutes and moving from five-line to three-line service outside of peak commute hours. The plan would go into effect in January and represents a 63% reduction in train hours. BART is also considering raising fares and parking rates, as well. If needed, the agency said it will close up to 15 stations and 25% of the system\u2019s track starting in July 2027.<\/p>\n

\"What<\/p>\n

Caltrain\u2019s proposed cuts include eliminating weekend service, closing more than a third of stations, reducing frequency to one train an hour and ending operations around 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m. The agency is facing an average annual deficit of $75 million over the next 15 years. At the beginning of the 2025-26 fiscal year, Caltrain\u2019s ridership was at 64.4% of pre-pandemic levels, compared to 81.5% by the end of the fiscal year.<\/p>\n

AC Transit, which is averaging a $50 million deficit over the next several years and had 68% of pre-pandemic ridership levels in August, is looking at reducing service by 16%, targeting the lowest performing lines and possibly eliminating routes completely if needed. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has proposed eliminating up to 20 Muni routes, cutting service by at least 30% and ending regular evening service due to the roughly $344 million deficit next fiscal year. In May, Muni surpassed pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2020 for its weekend service, though overall the ridership recovery was at 81%.<\/p>\n

BART is estimated to receive the largest share of the funding at roughly $310 million annually, according to a report from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which has set up a separate governing body to oversee the revenue from the measure. The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority would see the next largest sum at $245 million annually, followed by Muni at $155 million, Caltrain at $70 million, AC Transit at $50 million and SamTrans at $45 million.<\/p>\n

\"Measure<\/p>\n

Measure RTM supporter Henry Schroeder of San Mateo holds a sign during a rally supporting the measure at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

\"San<\/p>\n

San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa speaks during a rally supporting Measure RTM at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

\"Measure<\/p>\n

Measure RTM supporters gather for a group photo during a rally at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A Caltrain train arrives at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A SamTrans bus is parked at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

Show Caption<\/p>\n

1 of 5<\/p>\n

Measure RTM supporter Henry Schroeder of San Mateo holds a sign during a rally supporting the measure at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)<\/p>\n

Expand<\/a><\/p>\n

Because the estimated amount agencies like BART or Muni are expected to receive is less than the funding gap, they will have to continue finding ways to trim their budgets. Emily Loper, the senior vice president of public policy at the Bay Area Council, which helped craft the measure, said it was intentionally designed that way by requiring and incentivizing agencies to identify cost-cutting measures.<\/p>\n

While VTA has a smaller immediate deficit than some of the other large transit agencies in the region, they\u2019re projecting upwards of a $100 million shortfall beginning in the 2029 fiscal year. The agency has the second-largest share after BART because it\u2019s one of two transit agencies in Santa Clara County \u2014 Caltrain is the other. All revenue raised in each county will be used to fund transit and other transportation improvements in that county.<\/p>\n

A spokesperson for the agency said in a statement that the money will \u201cprovide critical funding to restore service levels that have remained consistent since dramatic cuts were made several years ago,\u201d but didn\u2019t name specific lines it would restore. The agency recently adopted a framework for spending the money \u2014 including bus corridor improvements, retaining service levels and upgrading vehicles and stations \u2014 but has not said how much funding would go to each priority.<\/p>\n

Overall, about 63% of the dollars raised across the Bay Area will go to preserving transit, while 33% will go to local transportation improvements. Five percent, or roughly $45 million, of the total revenue will also go to various rider improvements across the region including to discount programs and navigation signage.<\/p>\n

For critics of the ballot measure, they believe that transit agencies need to do more to control their costs before asking taxpayers to shell out more money. The base sales tax rate in California is 7.25%, though many cities and counties rates are higher, having previously passed increases to support services like early childhood education, healthcare and other transportation-related initiatives.<\/p>\n

If the Regional Transit Measure passes, the sales tax in seven Alameda County cities would be tied with the highest in the state at 11.25%. Pacifica in San Mateo County could surpass that should voters also approve a separate sales tax hike known as Measure BB.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s a straw man to discuss those cuts because they don\u2019t need to make them,\u201d Gregg Dieguez, the president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, said in an interview. \u201cThey could do a lot of things to change their cost structure and they\u2019re not doing it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dieguez proposed eliminating lines that see very few riders and said that agencies could tap into their unrestricted cash and investments. But BART spokesperson Chris Filippi said that money \u201cshould not be viewed as excess, discretionary or available cash, as these assets are required to support essential capital and ongoing operating requirements.\u201d Some of that goes to day-to-day needs like payroll, maintenance, utilities and insurance.<\/p>\n

Dieguez also argued that agencies shouldn\u2019t be building what he called \u201cvanity mega-projects\u201d like the Caltrain extension to the Salesforce Transit Center or BART\u2019s Silicon Valley extension and instead use that money to fill the budget gaps.\u00a0His coalition said there\u2019s already been precedent for these kinds of decisions, however, it would take the power of the state Legislature to reallocate the funds and could not be done by each agency.<\/p>\n

Caltrain spokesperson Dan Lieberman said in a statement that \u201cflexing capital funds to cover operating expenses is not a viable nor sustainable option.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"PassengersPassengers walk by a Caltrain train at Millbrae Station on Sept. 17, 2026, in Millbrae, Calif. (Dai Sugano\/Bay Area News Group)\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cCapital funding sources are a one-time source of funds, so even if the rules could be changed and capital projects could be cancelled so the funds could be repurposed for operations, they would only solve the problem for a short time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Loper, with the Bay Area Council, said that transit agencies \u201ccan\u2019t cut their way out of this crisis\u201d despite the claims from critics.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe deficits are too large and if they were cutting their way out of the crisis, it would be these dramatic service cuts that would result in as soon as January if we don\u2019t pass this measure,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

According to a May report commissioned by MTC, the Bay Area\u2019s transit agencies have already undergone cost savings and revenue-generating measures.<\/a> Between fiscal years 2020-2025, the consultants with Nelson\\Nygaard found that AC Transit has nearly $200 million in operating cost savings, BART had $516 million, Caltrain had more than $76 million and SFMTA had nearly $300 million.<\/p>\n

\"AnAn AC Transit Rapid Bus makes a stop on International Boulevard in Oakland, Calif., on Friday, June 26, 2020. (Ray Chavez\/Bay Area News Group)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Loper also touted the financial efficiency review component of the initiative that she said \u201cgoes above and beyond what our traditional accountability measures.\u201d MTC has the power to withhold funds should the agencies not meet the oversight requirements.<\/p>\n

If the sales tax increase ultimately fails in November, proponents worry about how much the deep service cuts will impact the Bay Area. Low income workers will likely be hit the hardest \u2014 the MTC\u2019s 2023-24 Regional Transit Passenger Snapshot Service found that 70% of its riders come from households that make under $100,000 a year. Two-thirds of riders surveyed also didn\u2019t have access to a car.<\/p>\n

But for those who don\u2019t take transit, the impacts might also be felt. Agrawal said individuals who do own a car will likely start driving and certain corridors like the Bay Bridge, the Caldecott Tunnel and other areas adjacent to rail lines will see more congestion.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will all personally experience it in different ways, whether it\u2019s higher traffic congestion or community members who suddenly are really, really struggling to get to their jobs or education,\u201d she said. \u201cI do hope that our agencies continue to look for savings\u2026but I don\u2019t think that we can save our way out of this crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AA San Francisco Bay Ferry cruises under the rush-hour traffic on the San Francisco Bay Bridge on Thursday, July 8, 2021. (Karl Mondon\/Bay Area News Group)\u00a0Karl Mondon\/Bay Area News Group<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The fate of the Bay Area\u2019s struggling public transit system could rest on a decision before voters in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":470202,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[1400,3767,184,7,8,5448,181,100,182,13,385,88,90,89,58078,1967],"class_list":["post-470201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-jose","tag-2026-elections","tag-bart","tag-bay-area","tag-california","tag-california-news","tag-caltrain","tag-latest-headlines","tag-news","tag-pm-report","tag-politics","tag-regional","tag-san-jose","tag-san-jose-headlines","tag-san-jose-news","tag-transit-fatalities","tag-transportation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=470201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/470201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/470202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=470201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=470201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=470201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}