there is a greater than 90% chance<\/a> of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o being present in October, November and December, and a 75% probability that it will rank as the strongest in history since modern records began in 1950.<\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o events occur every two to seven years when ocean waters along the equator off Peru become warmer than normal, affecting weather patterns across the globe. They begin when the trade winds that normally blow from east to west weaken or reverse, preventing cold, deep-ocean water from rising to the surface. The warmer surface waters become, the stronger the El Ni\u00f1o is considered. The opposite \u2014 a cooling of the ocean waters off South America \u2014 is called \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a.\u201d<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o events last for months and can often change the movement of the jet stream, pumping heat and moisture into the atmosphere and creating conditions that allow more winter storms to come to California, particularly Southern California, but also sometimes soaking the Bay Area and Sierra Nevada.<\/p>\n
Currently, the Pacific Ocean along the equator is warmer than it has ever been in recorded history, roughly 5.4 degrees warmer than average.<\/p>\n
Although very strong El Ni\u00f1os do not guarantee wet winters \u2014 there was one in 2015-16 that saw mostly average rainfall across the state \u2014 some of the wettest winters in recorded California history, including 1982-83 and 1997-98, have occurred during very strong El Ni\u00f1os.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a high potential for a significantly wetter-than-average winter this year,\u201d said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California\u2019s California Institute for Water Resources. \u201cThis is the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event on record and it is expected to strengthen considerably. That is a big deal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Swain said that current trends are shaping up to be similar to the winter of 1997-98. That year, San Francisco received 47 inches of rain, double its historical average of 23 inches. It was the second wettest year in recorded history since the Gold Rush in California, behind only 1861-62.<\/p>\n
He called Newsom\u2019s \u201cbetter safe than sorry\u201d approach Monday a \u201creasonable and prudent\u201d idea, even if storms end up fizzling.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a decision I agree with,\u201d he said. \u201cYou will be glad if sandbags are available and swift water rescue teams are available and National Guard troops are prepared to help fix levees.\u201d<\/p>\n
The emergency proclamation fast-tracks permitting for flood protection work and other projects. It requires state agencies to meet with local officials for emergency planning in the coming weeks and months, to expand public awareness campaigns, and to sign contracts to obtain emergency materials \u2014 from rocks used to strengthen levees to plastic sheeting and pumps \u2014 without the usual competitive bidding process.<\/p>\n
Agencies such as the Coastal Commission, the Department of Water Resources, the state Department of Fish and Wildlife, Cal Fire and others are also required to speed permits for projects that could reduce storm damage, such as installing erosion control features on hillsides in areas that have burned recently in wildfires or removing sediment in flood channels to increase their capacity.<\/p>\n
On Monday, state emergency officials said they are already holding planning meetings with cities and counties to identify places most at risk, and are beginning to clear drains on roads and preposition resources, such as sandbags, in locations across the state.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not about fear, it is about readiness,\u201d said Caroline Thomas Jacobs, director of the California Office of Emergency Services. \u201cIt is about giving people more time, more support and more ways to stay safe. California has faced significant storms before and we have learned from them.\u201d<\/p>\n
She urged people to get flashlights, chargers, radios and other emergency equipment ready, to clear gutters, and to be aware if they live near creeks or mudslide-prone hillsides. Jacobs also recommended that people go to ready.ca.gov<\/a> to sign up for local alerts and learn other tips.<\/p>\nTom Gibson, director of the state Department of Water Resources, said that his agency will be holding 12 workshops starting next week with cities and counties along the coast, the Central Valley and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta area to discuss everything from inland flood risk to coastal flood risk. Coastal erosion and damage to piers, homes, and streets along the coast has increased in recent decades due to sea level rise from climate change and could be particularly severe this winter if a major atmospheric river storm arrives during a high tide or king tide.<\/p>\n
Gibson said DWR will be pre-positioning 4.4 million sandbags, 400,000 tons of rock for emergency levee repairs, and other materials at 68 locations around the state in the coming weeks and months and inspecting more than 1,600 miles of levees in flood-prone areas.<\/p>\n
He urged people to pay attention to weather forecasts during storms, to understand their flood and mudslide risks, and not to ignore evacuation orders when authorities give them during unfolding severe weather.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe want to remind all Californians to remember this winter to be aware, be prepared and take action,\u201d Gibson said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday declared a statewide emergency for California, warning of damaging storms that could be…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":471324,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[107696,7,9,8,10648,185369,2319],"class_list":["post-471323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-california","tag-bay-area-weather-forecast","tag-california","tag-california-headlines","tag-california-news","tag-el-nino","tag-super-el-nino-what-is-el-nino","tag-weather-forecast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=471323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471323\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/471324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=471323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=471323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=471323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}