{"id":474190,"date":"2026-09-24T13:12:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T13:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/474190\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:12:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T13:12:09","slug":"bay-area-commute-times-could-double-without-new-transit-tax-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/474190\/","title":{"rendered":"Bay Area Commute Times Could Double Without New Transit Tax, Study Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rush-hour traffic delays on the Bay Bridge could more than double if voters reject two transit tax measures this November and agencies implement planned service cuts, according to a study<\/a> co-produced by SPUR, a nonprofit policy group that sponsored the regional measure.<\/p>\n

The study by the consulting firm Jacobs and the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association, or SPUR, modeled the effects of service cuts if voters reject the Regional Transit Measure<\/a> and San Francisco\u2019s Proposition H, a separate parcel tax to fund Muni.<\/p>\n

The analysis focused on key highway bottlenecks and assumed that BART and Caltrain would close stations with the lowest ridership. Neither agency has determined which stations would close.<\/p>\n

According to the study, peak-hour traffic delays on the Bay Bridge could increase by 33 minutes heading west in the morning and 43 minutes heading east in the evening. Eastbound afternoon delays at the Caldecott Tunnel could increase by 27 minutes, from 13 minutes to 40 minutes. The analysis also projects worsening congestion along Interstate 580, Interstate 680 and U.S. 101.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s important to note that these bottlenecks compound,\u201d said Laura Tolkoff, SPUR\u2019s transportation policy director. \u201cWhat the data shows is that the Bay Bridge approaches are going to be the most profound. Second to that is the Caldecott Tunnel. And if you drive through Caldecott, you might go through the State Route 13 interchange or across the Bay Bridge.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bay Area transit agencies have contingency plans for service cuts if they cannot secure additional funding for 2027 and beyond.<\/p>\n

Under those plans, BART could close up to 15 stations and end service at 9 p.m. each night. AC Transit would seek to preserve coverage for low-income areas, but even then the agency would lay off more than 200 workers and cut hours. Caltrain could close more than one-third of its stations.<\/p>\n

The study primarily examined BART, Caltrain and Muni because AC Transit had not adopted its contingency plan when the analysis was conducted. It did not model a complete BART shutdown.<\/p>\n

\u201cLosing a half hour on the commute home is not an abstract number. That\u2019s time spent with family, missing breakfasts with your kids, missing picking your kids up at school, missing appointments for seniors,\u201d said Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for Connect Bay Area, the campaign behind the regional measure.<\/p>\n

If passed, the Regional Transit Measure would raise the sales tax for 14 years by half a cent per dollar in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and by one cent per dollar in San Francisco. It is projected to raise roughly $980 million annually to help preserve transit service and fund other local transportation needs and improvements for riders.<\/p>\n

San Francisco voters also face Proposition H, a parcel tax projected to generate $170 million annually to help cover Muni\u2019s operating deficit.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe burden of transit cuts would fall hardest on people who cannot simply switch to driving, including low-income workers, students, older adults, and people with disabilities,\u201d according to the study. \u201cBut the consequences would ultimately be shared by everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n

Opponents of the regional measure argue that transit agencies\u2019 reliance on taxpayers has enabled poor financial stewardship.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe pandemic shock was real, and it wasn\u2019t the transit agencies\u2019 fault. But their response was to preserve a cost and compensation structure built for the old ridership level rather than adapt it \u2014 and voters are being asked to bail out that choice for the next fourteen years, no matter what happens to costs, ridership or how the Bay Area gets around,\u201d said Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, in a statement on social media.<\/p>\n

Dieguez has\u00a0argued that taxpayers should reject<\/a>\u00a0the sales tax measure this November among a series of requests. He has instead called for the $1 billion reallocation of high-speed rail funding to be shifted toward Bay Area transit for the next year, a new transit funding plan to be completed within a year, and creating a new, more modest sales tax proposal for a future ballot, according to Dieguez.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis isn\u2019t a one-year dip agencies just need to wait out \u2013 it\u2019s the new baseline,\u201d Dieguez said.<\/p>\n

Ridership at BART, Caltrain, Muni and AC Transit remains below pre-pandemic levels. At a budget meeting in February, BART Director Victor Flores warned about the consequences of losing more passengers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf riders leave, it will be unsustainable,\u201d Flores said. \u201cAnd then the conversation is not going to be about which communities do and don\u2019t have stations. It\u2019s going to be about how we have to adapt.\u201d<\/p>\n

BART\u2019s ridership has increased but remains far short of the average of 404,552 rides per weekday in the month before the COVID-19 pandemic. The agency recorded an average of 212,716 trips per weekday<\/a> during August.<\/p>\n

Tolkoff said the rebound is due in part to companies asking some workers to come into the office more, as well as marquee events like the Super Bowl and World Cup. But she warned that growth could reverse if the network begins cutting services.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think you\u2019ll have a lot of people who don\u2019t make recreational trips. If BART, Muni and Caltrain all end service by 9 p.m., think about every sports game and concert that starts at 7 p.m. You\u2019re not getting out of there before 10 p.m. It makes people think twice about going out for a night in San Francisco,\u201d Tolkoff said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rush-hour traffic delays on the Bay Bridge could more than double if voters reject two transit tax measures…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":474191,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[389,2647,3767,184,764,41758,7,5307,8,400,5448,390,391,392,8816,6836,332,393,204,394,2955,49640,181,205,2648,2649,191,194,100,143,145,144,195,395,7912,13,5572,976,6573,101,396,88,397,198,200,1967,398,399],"class_list":["post-474190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-oakland","tag-alameda-county","tag-antioch","tag-bart","tag-bay-area","tag-berkeley","tag-burlingame","tag-california","tag-california-ballot-measures","tag-california-news","tag-california-politics","tag-caltrain","tag-central-contra-costa","tag-concord","tag-contra-costa-county","tag-daly-city","tag-danville","tag-east-bay","tag-east-contra-costa","tag-election","tag-fremont","tag-hayward","tag-hercules","tag-latest-headlines","tag-local-politics","tag-martinez","tag-menlo-park","tag-milpitas","tag-mountain-view","tag-news","tag-oakland","tag-oakland-headlines","tag-oakland-news","tag-palo-alto","tag-peninsula","tag-pittsburg","tag-politics","tag-redwood-city","tag-richmond","tag-san-carlos","tag-san-francisco","tag-san-francisco-county","tag-san-jose","tag-san-mateo-county","tag-santa-clara-county","tag-south-bay","tag-transportation","tag-tri-valley","tag-west-contra-costa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=474190"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474190\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/474191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=474190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=474190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=474190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}